FanDuel NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Tuesday (1/5)

Hey guys, and thanks for joining me for tonight’s five-game NBA slate. As always, we’ll name values, studs, and fades for the day’s DFS festivities. Let’s get right to it!

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Value Plays

Point Guard

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• White has scored 31 or more FD points in four of his last five games, and he’ll be needed to handle a big offensive load against a Portland team capable of lighting it up at will. Unsurprisingly, this game has the highest over/under on the slate at 233.5, and it’s one to target.
• Murray comes in at nearly $8K, but with his recent performances, that’s still a value. Across his last two games, Murray has averaged nearly 49 FD points while scoring at least 30 real points in each contest. After a slow start to the season, Murray is finally turning it on, and his price tag hasn’t yet caught up.

Shooting Guard

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• With Kevin Durant out this week due to health protocols, LeVert should assume a larger role in the offense. The matchup with Utah isn’t a scary one, and LeVert has shown his ability to stuff the stat sheet when given additional opportunities.

Small Forward

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• Porter has averaged a robust 35.4 FD points across his last three, and he’s stepped up in a big way with Lauri Markkanen (COVID-19) out of action. Expect Porter to see plenty of minutes and scoring opportunities in what’s projected to be the highest scoring matchup of the night.
• Harris has played big for Brooklyn over the last week, averaging 29.5 FD points across his last four games. With Kevin Durant out and playing in a game with a healthy 231.5 over/under, Harris is a great salary-saving option who could blow away his current value.

Power Forward

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• With Karl-Anthony Towns still on the shelf, I’m willing to take a flyer on Reid, who should see minutes in the mid-20s against a friendly Denver defense. Reid has 30-point upside, and at just $4.8K, he’s a nice value.
• Power forward tonight consists of Anthony Davis ($10K) at the top and then a steep plummet to Bojan Bogdanovic at $5.3K. You should pay up for Davis, but the options in the mid-tier are pretty uninspired. That’s why I’ll roll the dice on Daniel Gafford, a guy priced at the very lowest salary, who’s averaged just under 23 FD points across his last three games, and who averages just over 1.0 FD points per minute this season. He’s a risk/reward GPP play and a guy I’ll stay away from in cash games.

Center

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• Harrell has seen his playing time drop in recent games, but he’s been efficient with his opportunities, and he’ll get another crack at a Grizzlies’ squad he just posted 31.8 FD points against Sunday.
• Kanter has provided three double-doubles already this season, and he’s played meaningful minutes off the bench for the Blazers. Coming off a season-best 42.9 FD-point performance Sunday against Golden State, I’ll take a chance on him here in matchup with the highest over/under on the slate.

Studs Worth Their Salary

• Nikola Jokic (DEN) $10,500: I’m not fading him anytime soon. The big man currently sports a triple-double average to go with 54.7 FD points per game.
• Kyrie Irving (BKN) $9,700: No Kevin Durant means more Irving. He’s worth every penny.
• Damian Lillard (POR) $9,200: As mentioned above, Dame gets a generous Chicago defense in a game with the highest over/under on the slate. Pay up.
• Anthony Davis (LAL) $10,000: Davis has provided two of his best games of the season against the Spurs and Grizz (averaging better than 50 FD points across his last two), but his price is just $10K. That’s a salary to exploit, as LeBron James is a GTD due to an ankle injury.

Notable Players to Fade

• Jusuf Nurkic (POR) $6,000: He’s averaged just 25.3 FD points this season and doesn’t look like the same guy we saw dominate the Orlando bubble. Even at only $6K against a lowly Bulls team, I’d rather spend my money elsewhere than on a player who hasn’t shown much upside in the new season.
• Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $10,100: I know he’s facing his former team, but I don’t want to pay five figures for Leonard on a slate that offers quality value at SF and guys I’d rather spend up for at the guard positions.
• Robert Covington (POR) $5,000: His price tag has plummeted, and for good reason. He’s barely averaging 20 FD points this season, and the upside hasn’t presented itself in Portland. I’m looking elsewhere.
• Jonas Valanciunas (MEM) $6,800: Valanciunas has averaged just under 29 FD points across his last three, and I don’t want to pay nearly $7K for him in a matchup with Los Angeles that isn’t highly favorable. There are better options at center tonight.

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