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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy: Friday (3/26)

Mar 26, 2021

Caris LeVert has averaged nearly 43 DK points over his last two outings.

Happy Friday, everyone! The dust has settled from yesterday’s trading frenzy, and while there won’t be any more moves today, yesterday’s transactions are going to have a major impact on tonight’s games. On top of that, we have a massive eleven-game slate to navigate tonight. Let’s get started.

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

Yesterday was arguably the most active trade deadline in recent memory, and with all the roster shuffling that occurred, there’s a lot of value to be had tonight. Orlando shipped out most of their relevant players and is left with a bare-bones roster tonight when they take on Portland. Most of the Magic players got significantly priced up, but there’s still value to be had there. Other teams to take a close look at include Detroit, Toronto, Boston, Miami, and Houston.

We already know of several studs that aren’t playing tonight, but, as of this writing, James Harden and Jimmy Butler are the only stars that we should be unsure of taking the court. With such a huge slate of games, there are sure to be injury and lineup reports pop up throughout the day, so make sure to keep up with NBA news of the day leading up to tipoff. You should also keep track of point spreads and expected point totals over at BettingPros to get a better picture of the overall landscape.

With all that said, here are my favorite value plays available tonight.

Jerami Grant (DET) $7,800
Grant’s usage has been through the roof over lately, averaging 37.6% over the past three games. He’ll remain the focal point for Detroit again tonight against a depleted Brooklyn team that already sports one of the worst defensive ratings in the NBA. With Delon Wright gone in the trade to Sacramento, it should be all Grant tonight. 

Caris LeVert (IND) $7,100
LeVert has seen a salary bump to put him back over $7,000, but the way he’s been playing, he’s worth the price. He’s averaged nearly 43 DK points over his last two outings, and he should be in that ballpark again tonight against the Mavs, which would give him around 6x value.

Kemba Walker (BOS) $6,700
Walker is fresh off dropping 43 DK points against Milwaukee on Wednesday night and now takes on the Bucks again tonight. It should be another high-scoring game between the Eastern Conference opponents, giving the veteran point guard plenty of opportunities to rack up DK points again.

Michael Carter-Williams (ORL) $6,600
The Magic had a fire sale during Thursday’s trade deadline and will be short-handed tonight, leaving Carter-Williams as the best ball-handler left on the roster. The former Rookie of the Year is going to get all the minutes he can handle against Portland, the team that’s given up the most DK points to point guards on the season. Even at his inflated salary, he should be considered one of the safest value plays on the board tonight. 

Khem Birch (ORL) $4,400:
The Magic will be short-handed in the frontcourt as well tonight, and Birch is my favorite of the Orlando big men, especially in cash games. Portland sports the second-worst defensive rating in the league, so there will be DK points to go around. You can also take your shot on Chuma Okeke or Mo Bamba, though their salaries have been inflated even more than Birch’s.

Wayne Ellington (DET) $4,300
Like Jerami Grant, Ellington is another beneficiary of Delon Wright’s departure via trade. He should get the start tonight against the porous Nets defense. He topped 25 DK points Wednesday in just 23 minutes and should see more time on the court tonight.

Chasson Randle (ORL) $4,100
One more Magic player worth mentioning, Randle is the only true ball-handling option behind Carter-Williams for Orlando tonight. I already mentioned Portland is the best DK matchup for point guards, making the journeyman Randle a solid discount option tonight. 

Paul Watson (TOR) $3,800
There’s a huge void to fill in Toronto’s backcourt tonight with Norman Powell, Terence Davis, and Matt Thomas all traded away yesterday. Watson has seen increased playing time over the past month and is coming off his best performance of the season Wednesday night. He’ll get his chance to contribute tonight and should easily out-produce his sub-$4,000 salary. 

Grant Williams (BOS) $3,700
The Celtics will be hurting for depth in the frontcourt tonight after trading away Daniel Theis and with Semi Ojeleye and Tristan Thompson already ruled out. His teammate Robert Williams will be the more popular DFS option, but I’d rather take my shot on Grant at nearly $3,000 cheaper, especially if I’m looking for leverage in tournaments.

D.J. Wilson (HOU) $3,400
Since being acquired by Houston a week ago, Wilson has seen his playing time increase in four consecutive games. He just put up over 21 DK points against Charlotte on Wednesday night, and now he takes on a Minnesota team that’s given up the most DK points to centers on the season. He could be in line to hit 7x value again at his bargain salary. The Rockets are a trainwreck of a team right now, but that doesn’t mean we should avoid all their players in DFS. 

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • James Harden (BKN) $10,800: You’ll have to keep an eye on the injury report leading up to tipoff as Harden is currently sporting the questionable tag after sitting out Brooklyn’s last game. If Harden does play, he’s the best play on the entire slate with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant already ruled out. Harden could push 40% usage and should be a lock for 50+ DK points with a much higher ceiling if he laces them up tonight.
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) $10,700: The Greek Freak is coming off one of his worst fantasy performances of the season, but don’t let that scare you away. Before Wednesday’s outing, he was averaging nearly 65 DK points/game over his previous five, making his salary a discount at under $11,000 tonight. 
  • Jimmy Butler (MIA) $9,000: A stomach illness kept Butler sidelined Thursday night, but he should be back in action tonight. The Heat will still be short-handed as they wait for all their new acquisitions to arrive, and Butler will do a little bit of everything if he’s able to get back on the court tonight. His $9,000 salary is too cheap for a player that’s topped 50 DK points in seven of his last ten games.
  • Zion Williamson (NO) $8,700: Zion has averaged over 46 DK points/game over his last four outings and has shown an even higher ceiling this season. He has huge upside tonight in what should be a competitive, high-scoring game against Denver.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Christian Wood (HOU) $8,400: Wood is finally back to full strength, but I don’t expect Houston to push him. The Rockets are a mess of a team and are playing more for the future than the present. They’ll likely tread lightly with the big man they paid ahead of this season is considered the future of their franchise.
  • Rudy Gobert (UTA) $8,300: Gobert is always one of my favorite DFS plays when he’s under $8,000. At $8,300, however, he’s too inconsistent to trust. He’s only topped 5x value on that salary once in the last five games. 
  • John Wall (HOU) $8,300: Much like Wood, the Rockets don’t have much incentive to push Wall to the max. The veteran point guard has already sat out multiple games this season for injury maintenance and may even get shut down for the season at some point soon.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

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Aaron Larson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Aaron, check out his archive and follow him @aalarson.