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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Monday (3/15)

Mar 15, 2021

Richaun Holmes has scored at least 30 DK points in six-straight outings.

I’ve been on a heater recently, and Sunday was no different. I had Kenyon Martin Jr. and Ricky Rubio as the two biggest values of the day, and both guys provided monster games, despite being below $5K on FanDuel. We’re back to DraftKings here, and the pricing is always a little stricter over on that site. There’s a lot to discuss, though, so let’s go ahead and get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

When looking at the betting landscape, we should have a fun slate. We don’t have a single double-digit spread on the board, with Brooklyn, Milwaukee, and Phoenix being the only teams favored by more than five points. We also have some bad defenses on display, and it should lead to a high-scoring night as well!

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Richaun Holmes (SAC) $6,400
Holmes has been the highlight player of my value section before, and it’s tough to understand this pricing by DraftKings. Richaun has played at a $7K level for weeks now, scoring at least 30 DK points in six-straight outings while reaching at least 38 fantasy points in each of his last three fixtures. That’s an absurd total from a $6,400 player, and he should continue to play big minutes with Hassan Whiteside sidelined. Not to mention, Charlotte ranks 21st in total defense.

Gordon Hayward (CHA) $7,300
Hayward’s price has dropped about $1,000 over the last month, and it’s hard to figure out why. The former All-Star is averaging over 37 fantasy points per game for the season and has a 38-point average over his last three fixtures. The best part about this play is the matchup, though, with Sacramento owning the NBA’s worst defensive rating.

Brook Lopez (MIL) $4,800
Lopez has been in this section for me all week, and it’s clear we’re doing something right when it comes to him. Over his last three games, Brook is averaging 28 DraftKings points per game. That’s all you can ask for from a sub-$5k player, and he shouldn’t have a problem doing that again versus a 27th-ranked Wizards defense that plays at the fastest pace in the NBA.

Dennis Schroder (LAL) $6,200
Schroder has been awesome in Anthony Davis’s absence, and it’s weird that he remains around $6,000. The speedy point guard has scored at least 26 fantasy points in 11 of his last 14 games, averaging 35 DK points per game in those 11 fixtures. That shows just how much he’s taken on with AD out, and he should have another big night against a Golden State team that ranks second in pace and 23rd in points allowed.

Derrick White (SAS) $5,200
With San Antonio missing DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge, White’s role should rise as the season progresses. That was certainly the case on Saturday, with White collecting 41 DK points for the second time in his last four games. That’s a heck of a number from someone this cheap, and he’s shown the ability to be a $7K player in the past, even with DeRozan and LA in the lineup.

Delon Wright (DET) $5,600
Wright was amazing in the first two months of the season, and a recent injury has dropped his price way too far. Before his injury, Delon had at least 29 DK points in seven of his previous eight games, averaging 35 fantasy points per game in that span. He showed that ability on Saturday, dropping 31 fantasy points in his second game back while playing over 30 minutes.

Mason Plumlee (DET) $6,100
Plumlee is another guy who needs a price increase. The big man has done a lot of ball-handling for Detroit recently and has definitely established himself as one of this offense’s focal points. Over his last 14 games, Mason is averaging over 35 fantasy points per game, stepping up in Blake Griffin‘s absence. It’s not like San Antonio is a scary matchup either with their subpar frontcourt, ranked 27th in rebounds allowed.

Will Barton (DEN) $5,300
Don’t look now, but Barton is starting to turn things around. He’s scored at least 24 DraftKings points in six-straight outings, averaging over 30 fantasy points per game in that span. Indiana is not the stout defense many people might expect either, ranked 19th in points allowed. That makes him one of the best bargains out there at $5,300.

Myles Turner (IND) $6,100
The center position always seems to be undervalued on DK, and Turner is one of the guys they continue to mess up. The big man is averaging over 32 DK points per game for the season and has at least 40 fantasy points in two of his last three games. That upside is hard to find from a $6K player, and it’s not like Nikola Jokic‘s dreadful defense will slow him down. In their last meeting, Myles had 47 fantasy points in one of his best games of the season.

Dario Saric (PHO) $4,200
The Suns’ situation is strange with Deandre Ayton sitting late in games for Saric, but here we are! The Croatian has scored at least 19 fantasy points in eight-straight games, averaging 23 fantasy points per game in that resurgent stretch. Getting a 19-point floor from someone this cheap is already encouraging, and he should be able to reach that again with Memphis owning an 18th OPRK against opposing power forwards.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) $11,100: Giannis has been the best player in fantasy over the last month, averaging 63 DraftKings points per game across his last 17 outings. What we love here is the matchup, though, with Washington playing at the fastest pace in the NBA while surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. In this matchup over the weekend, Giannis had a 71-point gem, and he was featured in the same section of this article!
  • Nikola Jokic (DEN) $10.700: If Giannis has been the best player over the last month, Jokic has been the best player for the year. In fact, he’s leading the league with 60 DK points per game, regularly providing triple-doubles. That could definitely be a possibility here, with Jokic falling two assists shy of one against the Pacers in their one meeting earlier this season.
  • LeBron James (LAL) $10,300: LeBron has a usage rate north of 30 percent with AD off the floor, and he’s obviously in take-over mode with him out. Over his last 15 outings, LBJ is averaging over 51 fantasy points per game, and we expect that to happen again versus one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA.
  • Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $8,900: How often do you see Kawhi below $9K? That alone makes him a great value, especially with Leonard averaging 46 fantasy points per game for the year. What we love here is the matchup, with Dallas’ defense sitting 24th in defensive efficiency.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Caris LeVert (IND) $7,000: LeVert is an awesome player, but it will take time for him to get used to this offense. He has an inflated price because of some gems with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving out, but this is different. He has to compete with Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon for touches which is scary since he’s played one game in the last three months.
  • Kyle Anderson (MEM) $5,400: Anderson has failed to reach 23 fantasy points in each of his last four games, taking a step back to allow Jonas Valanciunas and Ja Morant to take control of this offense.
  • James Wiseman (GSW) $5,100: Wiseman has been stellar in his limited minutes, but the limited part is the big gripe here. He’s playing just 19 minutes a night for the season and is averaging 12 DK points per game in his two meetings with the Lakers this season.
  • Tim Hardaway Jr. (DAL) $4,800: Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis have already made it tough for THJ to succeed, but with Josh Richardson starting to turn things around, there’s simply not enough meat on the bone for Hardaway to be the elite scorer we’ve seen in the past.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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