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FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Monday (3/1)

by Ryan Coleman
Mar 1, 2021

Brandon Ingram is so consistent that 5X value is almost a floor game.

Welcome to a seven-game Monday slate, and happy March! I hope that everyone’s first two months of the New Year have been successful, and here is to March being the same. As a quick tip, late swap if you have the opportunity. For some reason or another, few DFS contestants actually do it, but you can always get a leg up by swapping out players in later games after lock. The Rockets appear to offer solid value for tonight, and I like Portland’s high projected total. 

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Most Value Per Dollar

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. 

Brandon Ingram (SF – NO) $7,800
Ingram has been a 1.1 FPPM guy this year and has consistently been playing 36 minutes. Quick math puts him projected right under 40 FanDuel points and 5X value. With that being said, I still see him able to reach a ceiling of 55 points, and he is so consistent that 5X value is almost a floor game. I expect people to shy away from owning him, seeing that he plays Utah, so he is good for cash and GPP lineups. 

Collin Sexton (SG – CLE) $7,100
Sexton’s usage has increased as of late, reaching 30% or higher in three of his last four games. He has shown his ability to play 40 minutes, and while I expect him to play between 36-38, the Rockets offer a great option for a ceiling game. Cleveland played Houston on February 24th, and Sexton scored 23 points across 38 minutes. He should see an increase in assists and rebounds tonight.

T.J. McConnell (PG – IND) $6,100
Malcolm Brogdon missed the last game with a knee injury, and McConnell played 46 minutes, posting 45.2 fantasy points. And that’s with no overtime! If Brogdon misses tonight’s game – he is currently questionable – McConnell is a must in your lineups, whether in GPP or cash. He can easily return 6X value or more, and the 76ers have surprisingly struggled against point guards, allowing the 24th most FanDuel points per game. 

Jordan Clarkson (SG – UTA) $5,900
Leading Sixth Man of the Year candidate, Clarkson has been one of the more consistent producers of late. With his price staying below $6k, he consistently offers great value and tonight is no different. The Pelicans defense is one of the worst in the league, and Clarkson should see the floor for 30 minutes, making him one of the better value options on the slate.

LaMarcus Aldridge (PF – SA) $5,600
After missing six games, Aldridge’s first two games back were pretty solid, as last time out, he scored 30 FanDuel points in just 23 minutes. Moving forward, Aldridge should only see an uptick in minutes, and the Nets is a great matchup for him to return solid value. Keldon Johnson is questionable tomorrow, so Aldridge has the chance to start. If that’s the case, Aldridge will be an incredible value, but even with Johnson in, I expect him to do well. 

Eric Gordon (SG – HOU) $5,300
If John Wall gets ruled out on the back-to-back, Eric Gordon offers the slate’s best value. Gordon isn’t exactly the most consistent player, but he produces upwards of 25 FanDuel points when the minutes are there. I see 25 fantasy points as a floor game for Gordon if Wall is out, and he has the potential to reach 40+. The Cavaliers offer a great matchup for Gordon to go off as well. Gordon would be very high-owned if no Wall but would essentially be a cash game lock. 

DeAndre Jordan (C – BKN) $4,700
Keep an eye out for lineup news because Jeff Green can earn the start over Jordan, but Green is questionable as well. If Jordan does start, he is an outstanding contrarian option for tonight. There are many solid pay-up options at center tonight, so Jordan is a great way to diversify your GPP lineups. His ceiling is a bit limited as he doesn’t garner much usage, but he should return solid value and isn’t that risky.

Danuel House (SF – HOU) $4,500
Again, this is assuming Wall is out, but if he is, a lot more usage opens up for House to see an uptick in looks. Even if Wall plays, House has carved a solid role for himself, starting in each of his last six games, hovering just shy of a 20% usage rate. His minutes and production are all over the place, so he is a bit riskier of a play. But at $4500, he is at a nice price to allow you to spend up elsewhere. 

Michael Carter-Williams (PG – ORL): $4,400
For any starter, $4400 is too cheap a price. The Mavericks defense is not great and should allow MCW to reach between 5X-6X value. I don’t trust him enough to put in cash lineups, but he is a real solid leverage GPP play, as I don’t imagine Carter-Williams to garner that much ownership tonight. 

Patty Mills (PG – SA) $3,900
For someone who played 30 minutes last time out, $3900 is an incredible price. Mills isn’t the best producer when on the floor, at about 0.70 fantasy points per minute, but the Nets are up-tempo, which will give Mills more looks against their below-average defense. Mills should reach between 5X-6X and is viable in both cash and GPP lineups tonight. 

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Nikola Jokic (DEN) $11,000: If someone came to me from the future, telling me that Jokic scored 100 Fanduel points tonight, I would not be surprised. The Bulls defense cannot stop Jokic, and I seriously expect him to return 6X value or better. When The Joker has a ceiling game, it’s a slate-breaker, and his floor is as solid as ever. Jokic might be my favorite play of the slate. 
  • James Harden (BKN): $10,700: In non-blowout games where Harden reaches close to 40 minutes, he has consistently posted 60+ FanDuel points. I expect this game to come down to the wire, and with San Antonio’s up-tempo pace, Harden should see a couple more looks. As long as Kevin Durant is out, I’m always happy to find Harden in my lineups.  
  • Damian Lillard (POR) $10,100: It seems as though I write about Lillard every time, but he really is the life and soul of this Trail Blazers offense. He’s had games with a higher than 40% usage rate. Versus a sub-optimal Charlotte defense, I see Lillard reaching 60 points, with a ceiling of about 80. It’s been a bit since Lillard has had a ceiling game, and I’m feeling something special out of him tonight.  

Notable Players to Fade

  • Zach LaVine (CHI) $9,300: After being named an All-Star, it seems as though LaVine has hit a cold streak, failing to reach 35 FanDuel points in each of his last three games. While I expect him to eventually right the ship, Denver isn’t the best opponent to do so, as they have allowed the 6th fewest points per game to shooting guards. 
  • Jamal Murray (DEN) $8,500: With the number of options at point guard tonight, $8500 is way too expensive for my taste. I don’t expect Murray to reach 40 FanDuel points tonight. I expect this to be near the peak of Murray’s price tag on the season, so I would avoid him until his price sinks slightly.   
  • Myles Turner (IND) $7,000: I am not one who usually values defensive matchups, but if there is a team to avoid for centers, it’s the 76ers. A lot of the usage is going to Domantas Sabonis, so Turner has been inconsistent and doesn’t even offer a ceiling above 42 points.    

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Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive and follow him @ryancoleman_98.

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