Greetings, friends, and welcome to Week 2 of our Main Slate GPP Advice series. Earlier this week, we took a look at DFS Pricing Exploitations. In this space, we’ll focus specifically on GPP lineup builders. We’re chasing higher payouts, so we want to find high-upside players, especially ones who appear to be undervalued. Now that we are a week into the season, we are already seeing some price adjustments. There are some overcorrections and some prices that haven’t changed enough.
GPP means we are going to look for value and take big swings. You shouldn’t have every player below in your DFS lineups. These are players with upside to target so that you can save money to use on higher-priced studs. We are going to identify value. We are going to monitor injury situations. We are going to take some risks. And most importantly, we are going to make some money.
As a general reminder, these are how most FanDuel and DraftKings contests are formatted:
- FanDuel $60,000 salary cap, 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 DEF ($6,667 average price per position)
- DraftKings: $50,000 salary cap, 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 DEF ($5,555 average price per position)
Have questions or just want to talk football or DFS? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
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The players below are ones I’m looking at for large-field tournament considerations for Week 2 main slates:
Quarterbacks
FanDuel
Justin Herbert (LAC - QB): $7,600 vs. DAL
We talked about Justin Herbert in my DFS Pricing Exploitation piece earlier this week. In Week 1, Herbert completed 31 of his 47 pass attempts for 337 yards and a touchdown while rushing four times for negative yardage against the Washington Football Team. The Cowboys allowed Tom Brady to throw for 379 yards and four touchdowns on Thursday night. And yet, Herbert's salary on both DFS sites is unchanged for Week 2. He is projected to be the sixth-highest scoring quarterback on FanDuel while being the eighth-most expensive quarterback, and I think those projections are conservative.
Joe Burrow (CIN - QB): $7,100 vs. CHI
Joe Burrow is QB14 in terms of price on FanDuel but QB10 in terms of projection. That +4 difference between salary and projections is something that jumped out as soon as I started researching GPP quarterbacks. In Week 1, Burrow completed 20 of his 27 pass attempts for 261 yards and two touchdowns while being sacked five times. The Bears allowed 34 points to the Rams while allowing Matthew Stafford to complete 20 of 26 passes for 321 yards and three touchdowns.
Other notables: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF - QB): $6,600 vs. PHI, Ryan Tannehill (TEN - QB): $7,300 vs. SEA
DraftKings
Joe Burrow (CIN - QB): $5,800 vs. CHI
See above. Burrow is an even bigger discount on DraftKings. He is QB10 in terms of projection and just QB16 in terms of price, and his +6 difference is one of the biggest values of the week on DraftKings.
Baker Mayfield (CLE - QB): $6,000 vs. HOU
The Houston Texans stunned many in Week 1 in their win over the Jaguars, but they may have just exposed a bad Urban Meyer team. In a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, Baker Mayfield completed 21 of his 28 pass attempts for 321 yards but didn't find the end zone. That isn't likely to happen again in Week 2, and Mayfield is a bargain at $6,000 at DraftKings.
Other notables: Ryan Tannehill (TEN - QB): $6,300 vs. SEA, Jimmy Garoppolo (SF - QB): $5,700 vs. PHI
Running Backs
FanDuel
Najee Harris (PIT - RB): $6,100 vs. LV
Najee Harris saw a significant workload in Week 1, but the production was lacking against a stout Buffalo defense. The good news for GPP players? That keeps his price low for Week 2. On FanDuel, Harris has an incredible +9 difference between his projections and price. He is RB7 according to projections and RB16 based on his $6,100 price. You won't find many other running backs penciled in for 20 touches at that price tag.
Austin Ekeler (LAC - RB): $7,000 vs. DAL
We talked about Justin Herbert above. Many of the same things apply to Austin Ekeler, whose price only increased by $100 for Week 2. Ekeler rushed 15 times for 57 yards but was surprisingly not targeted in the passing game. That is going to change in Week 2, and Ekeler should be in line for a significant workload against a banged-up Dallas defense, especially now that he is another week removed from a hamstring issue.
Other notables: Kenyan Drake (LV - RB): $5,500 vs. PIT, Elijah Mitchell (SF - RB): $5,800 vs. PHI
DraftKings
Najee Harris (PIT - RB): $6,300 vs. LV
See above. Harris isn't quite the same value on DraftKings as he is on FanDuel, but he is still a significant value and is projected to outproduce his salary.
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL - RB): $6,200 vs LAC
Ezekiel Elliott is going to be a value until he isn't. $6,200 in Week 2 feels like a mistake, especially with Michael Gallup out. But the prices reflect recent production and usage, and Elliott only rushed 11 times for 33 yards and caught two passes for six yards in Week 1 against the Bucs. As good as Justin Herbert and the Chargers are, they aren't Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, and the Cowboys aren't going to throw the ball 60 times on Sunday.
Other notables: Kenyan Drake (LV - RB): $4,900 vs. PIT, Elijah Mitchell (SF - RB): $5,000 vs. PHI
Wide Receivers
FanDuel
D.K. Metcalf (SEA - WR): $7,000 vs. TEN
D.K. Metcalf is $700 cheaper on FanDuel in Week 2 than he was in Week 1, when he caught four of his five targets for 60 yards and a touchdown. But Metcalf is WR3 based on projections and WR 12 based on price. That is exactly the kind of big swing you look for in GPP contests. Swing away.
A.J. Brown (TEN - WR): $7,100 vs. SEA
The Titans disappointed in Week 1, losing 38-13 to the Cardinals. A.J. Brown caught four of his eight targets for 49 yards and a touchdown. Brown has a similar price point to Metcalf above and is projected for only slightly less production. The Seahawks dominated the Colts in Week 1 but did allow Carson Wentz to complete 25 of his 38 pass attempts for 251 yards and two touchdowns despite some poor offensive line play. The Titans should bounce back in Week 2, and Brown could be the beneficiary of an improved passing attack.
Other notables: CeeDee Lamb (DAL - WR): $6,800 vs. LAC, Cooper Kupp (LAR - WR): $6,200 vs. IND
DraftKings
Allen Robinson II (CHI - WR): $6,200 vs. CIN
Allen Robinson at $6,200 on DraftKings may very well be the best value of the week. He is the 18th most expensive wide receiver in Week 2 but is projected to be worth twice as much. The Bengals beat the Vikings in Week 1 but allowed Kirk Cousins to complete 36 of his 49 pass attempts for 351 yards and two touchdowns. Robinson is likely discounted because of Andy Dalton and because he only totaled 35 yards receiving in Week 1. But Robinson was targeted 11 times last week and dealt with Jalen Ramsey in coverage for most of the evening. He'll find more success against the Bengals.
Cooper Kupp (LAR - WR): $6,000 vs. IND
Cooper Kupp caught seven of his 10 targets for 108 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. He should not be $6,000. He should not be WR22 in terms of price on DraftKings. This is, as far as I can tell, a mistake. On both sites, Kupp is projected to be twice as valuable as his price point. Take the price and don't ask questions.
Other notables: D.J. Moore (CAR - WR): $5,900 vs. NO, CeeDee Lamb (DAL - WR): $6,400 vs. LAC
Tight Ends
FanDuel
Kyle Pitts (ATL - TE): $5,500 vs. TB
Let's try the Kyle Pitts gamble again. His NFL debut did not go as planned, as he caught just four of his eight targets for 31 yards. But he still has TE1 upside and is even cheaper in Week 2 than he was in Week 1, at least on FanDuel. On DraftKings, his price went UP. But on FanDuel, it's down $500 for Week 2. The Falcons are going to be losing in this game, and they're going to have to throw the ball. Look for Pitts to get at least another eight targets, if not more.
Other notables: Noah Fant (DEN - TE): $5,700 vs. JAC
DraftKings
Noah Fant (DEN - TE): $4,200 vs. JAC
Noah Fant caught six passes for eight yards in Week 1. In Week 2, the Broncos will be without wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, so Fant should see a somewhat increased role. He is the 8th most expensive tight end on DraftKings but is projected to finish as the TE for the week on the main slate.
Other notables: Tyler Higbee (LAR - TE): $4,100 vs. IND
Defense/Special Teams
FanDuel
Buffalo Bills (BUF - DST): $3,700 vs. MIA
The Bills aren't even ranked as a DST1 for Week 2, as they're ranked 15th in terms of price on the main slate. I have them projected to finish eighth, and even that feels conservative. The Bills need to bounce back after a Week 1 loss, and the Dolphins will be without Will Fuller for a second straight game. This game is in Buffalo, and I expect the Bills to finish as a Top 5 DST in Week 2.
Other notables: Denver Broncos (DEN - DST): $4,600 vs. JAC
DraftKings
Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT - DST): $3,000 vs. LV
The Steelers held the Bills to 16 points in Week 1 while recording three sacks, recovering a fumble, and scoring a touchdown. They are the 9th most expensive DST on the slate, but I have them projected to finish in the Top 5. Save some money on defense and take the Steelers at $3,000, and use that savings to pay up for a skill position player.
Other notables: New England Patriots (NE - DST): $3,700 vs. NYJ
Want to keep the conversation going or just have a question? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.
