This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.
Week 1 Value Plays
We made it. Week 1 is here. It feels like an eternity ago that Tom Brady was hoisting yet another Lombardi Trophy. After a long summer, we have finally made it to September and real football. As I have for the last few years, I will be providing a weekly value column for FantasyPros, but this year it will be a little different. Instead of concentrating on one site, I’ll be looking at values on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Some of the values will crossover onto both sites, but with the different scoring as well as different pricing algorithms, there will be some players I like more on one site or the other. So without further ado, here are my Week 1 Value Plays.
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Quarterback
DraftKings
Sam Darnold (CAR): $5,000 vs. NYJ
Let’s ignore for a second the “revenge” narrative with Darnold opening the season against his former team and look at some of the numbers. First, the Jets defense ranked 28th in passing DVOA in 2020 (per FootballOutsiders.com), and while former defensive coordinator and new head coach Robert Saleh will improve that side of the ball, it won’t happen overnight. The Jets also had the third-worst adjusted completion percentage (per FTNFantasy.com), which removes spikes, throwaways, batted passes, and passes thrown while being hit. Oh, and there is a revenge narrative too.
This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.
Week 1 Value Plays
We made it. Week 1 is here. It feels like an eternity ago that Tom Brady was hoisting yet another Lombardi Trophy. After a long summer, we have finally made it to September and real football. As I have for the last few years, I will be providing a weekly value column for FantasyPros, but this year it will be a little different. Instead of concentrating on one site, I’ll be looking at values on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Some of the values will crossover onto both sites, but with the different scoring as well as different pricing algorithms, there will be some players I like more on one site or the other. So without further ado, here are my Week 1 Value Plays.
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Quarterback
DraftKings
Sam Darnold (CAR): $5,000 vs. NYJ
Let’s ignore for a second the “revenge” narrative with Darnold opening the season against his former team and look at some of the numbers. First, the Jets defense ranked 28th in passing DVOA in 2020 (per FootballOutsiders.com), and while former defensive coordinator and new head coach Robert Saleh will improve that side of the ball, it won’t happen overnight. The Jets also had the third-worst adjusted completion percentage (per FTNFantasy.com), which removes spikes, throwaways, batted passes, and passes thrown while being hit. Oh, and there is a revenge narrative too.
Honorable mention: Jameis Winston (NO): $5,200 vs. GB
FanDuel
Carson Wentz (IND): $6,500 vs. SEA
The Seahawks’ passing defense, while it improved as the season progressed, was not very good in 2020. Only the Falcons allowed more passing yards than the Seahawks, and while Carson Wentz left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth last season, the fact remains, this Colts team has one of the best offensive lines in football, and we have seen Wentz do well when he has had time to throw.
Honorable mention: Sam Darnold (CAR): $6,500 vs. NYJ
Running Back
DraftKings
Phillip Lindsay (HOU): $4,700 vs JAX
The Texans are a disaster of a team. There is very little talent on this roster, however, I do think Lindsay has some DFS value. He is the best running back in their plethora of “has-been” running backs, boasting a career mark of 4.8 yards-per-carry and two 1,000 yard seasons. Still young enough in only his fourth season, Lindsay should dominate the touches in this backfield, and he also happens to be their best pass-catcher with two seasons of 47 or more receptions.
Chase Edmonds (ARI): $4,600 @ TEN
This game has sneaky shootout potential. Both offenses are very good, and both defenses are suspect at best. Edmonds is expected to get the larger workload with James Connor chipping in as well. With a 6.1 yards-per-carry average last season, there are many who believe he was the better running back over Kenyan Drake, who carried the load last season. Like Phillip Lindsay, Edmonds will catch passes out of the backfield as well, increasing his value in the full PPR format of Draftkings.
Honorable mention: Damien Harris (NE): $5,200 vs. MIA
FanDuel
James Robinson (JAX): $5,900 @ HOU
The Texans ranked 29th in rushing DVOA in 2020, and there is no reason to think it will be any better in 2021. Robinson’s price was taking into account the presence of rookie running back Travis Etienne, but with him on IR, Robinson will get the lion’s share of the workload.
Trey Sermon (SF): $5,200 @ DET
We already know that Kyle Shanahan will deploy a multi-back system again this season, but Sermon is a guy the 49ers are likely to use as their “closer.” After the 49ers get up big on the lowly Lions, it’ll be Sermon, not Raheem Mostert, salting the game away in the fourth quarter. The Lions ranked 27th in rushing DVOA in 2020.
Honorable mention: Myles Gaskin (MIA): $6,000 @ NE
Wide Receiver
DraftKings
Marquez Callaway (NO): $3,400 vs. GB
This will be the chalkiest play of the weekend. Callaway has taken advantage of injuries to Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith to move up the depth chart to become the No. 1 wide receiver for Jameis Winston. It’s a tough matchup with Jaire Alexander likely matching up with Callaway, but at $3,400, there isn’t a better value on the entire slate.
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND): $4,100 vs. SEA
Pittman was already expected to be, at worst, the No. 2 wide receiver in this offense. Now, with the T.Y. Hilton injury, Pittman is the defacto No. 1 for Carson Wentz. I mentioned already how bad the Seahawks’ pass defense was last season, this could be Pittman’s coming-out party.
Honorable mention: Tee Higgins (CIN): $4,700 vs. MIN
FanDuel
Corey Davis (NYJ): $5,800 @ CAR
If the preseason is any indication, Davis is going to be peppered with targets from rookie quarterback Zach Wilson. Davis had been largely forgotten about as everyone was enamored with the rookie Elijah Moore, but it was Davis emerging in the last preseason game as Wilson’s top target. This game could be a sneaky game to stack as both defenses aren’t very good, the skill players aren’t overly expensive, but are good enough to put up some points.
Marquez Callaway (NO): $5,200 @ GB
see above
Honorable mention: Russell Gage (ATL): $5,700 vs. PHI
Tight End
DraftKings
Gerald Everett (SEA): $3,400 @ IND
The Seahawks have never been a team known to boast a top tight end. Outside of the one year Jimmy Graham caught a ton of touchdowns, there haven’t been many consistent tight ends for fantasy in Seattle. However, if you take the tight end position as a whole in 2020, the 73 catches by tight ends would have ranked third in the NFL if they were all caught by the same tight end, the 699 yards would have ranked them sixth, and the six touchdowns would have had them tied for ninth. In other words, they’d be a top 12 tight end. That was a long-winded way to say, if the Seahawks plan to give Everett the entire tight end workload, he could be in for a huge season, and the $3,400 price tag will be the lowest he will be priced all season.
Honorable mention: Adam Trautman (NO): $2,900 vs. GB
FanDuel
Tyler Conklin (MIN): $4,400 @ CIN
Conklin was getting rave reviews even before the Vikings lost Irv Smith Jr. for the season. Unfortunately, he too has been dealing with injuries, but if he is cleared to play this weekend, he could end up, at worst, fourth in target distribution and could be higher than that in the red zone. The Bengals ranked 27th in passing DVOA last season, and at $4,400, Conklin doesn’t need to do much to hit value.
Honorable mention: Mo Alie-Cox (IND): $4,700 vs. SEA
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