Greetings, friends, and welcome to Week 7 of the DFS Pricing Exploitation series. Last week, we hit big with the likes of Carson Wentz, Darrell Williams, Zach Ertz, Ricky Seals-Jones, and others but missed on Kadarius Toney since he left almost immediately with an injury. Every week in this space, we’ll take a look at pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel and identify our favorite quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends based on how we can best take advantage of recent changes to those prices. Bye weeks kicked off in Week 6, so this is our first slate of games with players who had bye weeks the previous week. We’ll be targeting one of those players while also taking a look at another who had a pseudo-bye last week. Let’s take a look at some pricing changes and who we’re targeting in Week 7.
Have questions or just want to talk football or DFS? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
Greetings, friends, and welcome to Week 7 of the DFS Pricing Exploitation series. Last week, we hit big with the likes of Carson Wentz, Darrell Williams, Zach Ertz, Ricky Seals-Jones, and others but missed on Kadarius Toney since he left almost immediately with an injury. Every week in this space, we’ll take a look at pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel and identify our favorite quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends based on how we can best take advantage of recent changes to those prices. Bye weeks kicked off in Week 6, so this is our first slate of games with players who had bye weeks the previous week. We’ll be targeting one of those players while also taking a look at another who had a pseudo-bye last week. Let’s take a look at some pricing changes and who we’re targeting in Week 7.
Have questions or just want to talk football or DFS? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
Create Optimal lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool 
Quarterbacks
FanDuel
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA - QB) vs. ATL, $7,100 (+$500)
This choice immediately became interesting while I was writing it since Deshaun Watson trade rumors started swirling again, with the Dolphins as the potential landing spot. Other reports have thrown cold water on those rumors, however, and it seems unlikely that the Dolphins would make such a move late in the week. So, I'm sticking with Tua as the pick here and feel good about doing so. Tua is priced as the QB17 on the full slate on FanDuel in Week 7, but I have him projected as a QB1. Last week, in his first game back from the injured list, he finished as QB10, throwing the ball 47 times and completing 33 of those passes for 329 yards. He gets a favorable matchup against the Falcons this week and is a bargain at this price.
Other notables: Tom Brady (TB - QB) vs. CHI, $8,000 (-$700)
DraftKings
Matt Ryan (ATL - QB) vs. MIA, $5,700 (N/A - BYE)
Let's look at the other side of the Falcons-Dolphins matchup. The Falcons had a bye in Week 6, so there is no price comparison for Matt Ryan this week. He is priced at QB16 on DraftKings, but I have him projected for QB1 numbers. Not only are the Falcons coming off a bye, but the Dolphins are playing a game in Miami in Week 7 after playing in London in Week 6 because they opted not to take a post-London bye week when the schedule was being made. I'm not sure a team coming off a bye has ever played a team returning from London before, and it will be interesting to see if the Dolphins come out flat in this one. Another aspect to monitor for this one: Miami defensive backs Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. Both missed last week's game and appear to be questionable heading into this one. If either is forced to miss this Week 7 matchup, that makes this Matt Ryan play even more intriguing.
Other notables: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA - QB) vs. ATL, $5,500 (+$1,500)
Running Backs
FanDuel
D'Ernest Johnson (CLE - RB) vs. DEN, $5,700 (+$1,200)
Running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are both out. Quarterback Baker Mayfield looks like he is going to miss Thursday's game, too. Those injuries and a short week mean a simplified game plan likely means plenty of touches for D'Ernest Johnson, who is just $5,700 on FanDuel. They did appropriately bump his price by $1,200 due to question marks at the running back position at the start of the week, but he's still a bargain at this price even against the Broncos.
Other notables: Josh Jacobs (LV - RB) vs. PHI, $6,900 (+$100)
DraftKings
Darrel Williams (KC - RB) vs. TEN, $5,800 (+$900)
We talked about Darrell Williams in this space last week and had him on our FanDuel and DraftKings lists. He delivered in a big way for fantasy managers, but his price hasn't increased enough. On DraftKings, Williams only went up by $900 and is still just $5,800. That puts him at RB18, which is silly after the usage we saw last week when he finished as RB6. Sign me up again.
Other notables: J.D. McKissic (WAS - RB) vs. GB, $5,000 (+$200)
Wide Receivers
FanDuel
Chris Godwin (TB - WR) vs. CHI, $6,700 (-$600)
Honestly, I could have picked any of the three Tampa Bay wide receivers here, but Godwin was the biggest value. He is priced as the WR18 on FanDuel after catching all five of his targets for 43 yards in last week's win over the Eagles. But the Bears don't have a good secondary, the Bucs are coming off extra rest, and we have seen what his offense is capable of. Godwin has seen double-digit targets in two games this season but hasn't found the end zone the last three games after starting off the season with a touchdown in three straight games. He hasn't finished as a WR1 since Week 3 against the Rams, which is why we're getting the discount here. Take it.
Other notables: Terry McLaurin (WAS - WR) vs. GB, $7,200 (-$200)
DraftKings
Ja'Marr Chase (CIN - WR) vs. BAL, $6,200 (-$500)
Chase is priced as WR16 but projected as WR6 in Week 7. Keep going? Ok. He finished as WR6 in two of his last four games and has 25 targets over his last three games combined. He has produced double-digit fantasy points in all six games to start the season, and $6,200 is just too cheap for a wideout with his upside who has already scored five touchdowns in his first six games in the NFL.
Other notables: DeVonta Smith (PHI - WR) vs. LV, $5,400 (-$600)
Tight Ends
FanDuel
Dallas Goedert (PHI - TE) vs. LV, $5,900 ($0)
Dallas Goedert didn't play last Thursday against the Buccaneers after testing positive for COVID-19, and, though he is vaccinated, still hasn't been cleared to return just yet. So, definitely monitor his status heading into the weekend. If he does play, he'll no longer be sharing snaps and targets with Ertz, who was traded to the Arizona Cardinals after last week's game. Eagles general manager Howie Roseman all but challenged Goedert to go out and earn a new contract and mentioned that they want to see him as "the guy" for the rest of the season before they head into contract negotiations. If Goedert takes off this week, you won't be able to get him for this price going forward.
Other notables: Ricky Seals-Jones (WAS - TE) vs. GB, $5,400 (+$400)
DraftKings
Zach Ertz (ARI - TE) vs. HOU, $3,900 (+$500)
This one is similar to Goedert, but it's a bit trickier since Ertz will be in a new offense and won't be on the field for every snap, at least not right away. But they will certainly have packages for the veteran tight end as they look to incorporate him into the offense quickly. That should also mean snaps in the red zone, where the Cardinals should be often against the Texans. And this matchup is a big reason why I am taking the gamble on Ertz. The Cardinals are going to have the ball a ton and should have plenty of success, which means more opportunities to utilize their new weapon. This one is a gamble that might be better off in GPP contests, but Ertz has a ton of upside in this offense and is not yet expensive.
Other notables: Dallas Goedert (PHI - TE) vs. LV, $4,600 (-$100)
Want to keep the conversation going or just have a question? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
Get a FREE 6-month upgrade with our special offer
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator - which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents - to our Draft Assistant - that optimizes your picks with expert advice - we've got you covered this fantasy football draft season.
Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.
