Here we go! We are just hours away from one of the greatest days of the year, Thanksgiving. For this guy, nothing beats lounging around watching football and eating so much food that we swear that we’ll never eat again. It has always been my favorite holiday, even as a kid, and has gotten even better these days with the all-day DFS slate that we can keep track of.
My biggest piece of advice for the Thanksgiving slate, especially in GPPs which will be the focus of this article, is to tinker with your lineups. There is time between games to analyze your GPP lineups to see what went right and what went wrong after each game and make pivots when necessary to maximize your chances to either catch up or stay ahead of the field. So, while taking that food coma snooze is appealing, you might want to stay awake at least until the last game kicks off. Happy Thanksgiving!
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The players below are ones I’m looking at for large-field tournament considerations for Week 12 Thanksgiving slate:
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Andy Dalton (CHI): $5,500 vs. DET
On a small three-game slate, the chalky players will be very chalky. That even goes for quarterback, where ownership is usually spread out. It will condense to just a couple of guys. Those guys on this slate will be Josh Allen and Dak Prescott. So, in GPPs, limit your exposure to those guys and consider pivoting to someone like Dalton.
Here we go! We are just hours away from one of the greatest days of the year, Thanksgiving. For this guy, nothing beats lounging around watching football and eating so much food that we swear that we’ll never eat again. It has always been my favorite holiday, even as a kid, and has gotten even better these days with the all-day DFS slate that we can keep track of.
My biggest piece of advice for the Thanksgiving slate, especially in GPPs which will be the focus of this article, is to tinker with your lineups. There is time between games to analyze your GPP lineups to see what went right and what went wrong after each game and make pivots when necessary to maximize your chances to either catch up or stay ahead of the field. So, while taking that food coma snooze is appealing, you might want to stay awake at least until the last game kicks off. Happy Thanksgiving!
Win $1 Million playing FanDuel’s NFL Sunday Million
The players below are ones I’m looking at for large-field tournament considerations for Week 12 Thanksgiving slate:
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Andy Dalton (CHI): $5,500 vs. DET
On a small three-game slate, the chalky players will be very chalky. That even goes for quarterback, where ownership is usually spread out. It will condense to just a couple of guys. Those guys on this slate will be Josh Allen and Dak Prescott. So, in GPPs, limit your exposure to those guys and consider pivoting to someone like Dalton.
I expect David Montgomery to be one of the highest-owned running backs and maybe the highest owned player on the entire slate. This sets up a great opportunity to pivot to the Bears passing behind Dalton, who… (one second, just threw up a little bit) showed some life last week in place of Josh Fields during the second half. The Lions rank 28th DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) against the pass according to FootballOutsiders and have allowed 8.27 yards per attempt (31st) this season.
Other notables: Josh Allen (BUF): $7,800 vs. NO, Derek Carr (LV): $5,900 vs. DAL
FanDuel
Derek Carr (LV): $7,400 vs. DAL
There aren’t many quarterbacks capable of posting the highest score on this three-game slate, but Carr is one of them and will carry far lower ownership than Allen and Prescott. The game environment should be set up right for Carr to air it out on Thursday with the Raiders as more than a touchdown underdog playing in a game with the highest Vegas total of the day.
Carr has topped 23 DraftKings points in half of his games this season, and the Cowboys have given up 269 passing yards (24th) per game this season. However, they have been stingy in the touchdown department, allowing just 1.4 touchdown passes (10th) per game. Carr will need to break through for that second score to have a shot at the top quarterback on the slate.
Other notables: Dak Prescott (DAL): $8,200 vs. LV, Andy Dalton (CHI): $7,200 vs. DET
Running Backs
DraftKings
Tony Pollard (DAL): $5,600 vs. LV
The amount of use of Pollard in GPPs will depend on the status of Ezekiel Elliott. If Elliott sits out of the game, then Pollard will turn into a chalk option at running back, so consider looking elsewhere if you want to get different in GPPs. However, if Elliott plays, then Pollard turns into the top GPP back to use.
Even when Elliot plays, there are games where Pollard just looks better and performs better. He gets a favorable matchup against the Raiders, who have allowed 108 rushing yards (25th) per game to running back over the last five weeks on 4.48 YPC (26th). The game environment sets up well for the Cowboys, also playing at home as an eight-point favorite in the matchup with the highest Vegas total.
Other notables: Josh Jacobs (LV): $5,900 vs. DAL, Matt Breida (BUF): $4,800 vs. NO, Tony Jones (NO): $4,000 vs. BUF
FanDuel
Tony Jones (NO): $4,800 vs. BUF
I’m listing Tony Jones here to talk about the Saints backfield situation, which is the murkiest one to predict at the moment of this writing. Alvin Kamara has missed the last two games and looks pretty iffy for Thursday. Mark Ingram has been the lead back the last two games but has not participated in practice on Monday and Tuesday. That could leave Jones as the primary back if both of them are unable to go.
The key to this situation for DFS is the timing of when the official news of who is in and who is out in the Saints backfield is known. With the game against the Bills the last of the day on Thanksgiving, if that news isn’t known until shortly before kickoff, most DFS players will just ignore the unknown of the Saints backfield and opt for players in earlier games. This could open the door for any of the Saints running backs to be very low-owned. My suggestion is to leave a spot open for “Saints RB” in your DFS lineup and take advantage of potential late-breaking news to plug in the starter.
Other notables: Josh Jacobs (LV): $6.700 vs. DAL, Tony Pollard (DAL): $5,900 vs. LV, Jamaal Williams (DET): $5,200 vs. CHI
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Emmanuel Sanders (BUF): $4,800 vs. NO
On a PPR site like DraftKings, so much attention shifts to the high-volume slot receivers like Sanders’ teammate Cole Beasley, that the other outside receiver is often forgotten. Sanders will be the forgotten Bills receiver this week, with Beasley costing $300 less and Stefon Diggs as maybe the only good spend up at the position.
Meanwhile, Sanders has had some GPP upside games this season in the Bills pass-heavy offense, including two games where he scored a pair of touchdowns. Sanders is familiar with the Saints defensive backs after playing in New Orleans the past season and a half and could be the Bills wideout to own in GPPs on Thursday.
Marquise Goodwin (CHI): $3,800 vs. DET
Last week, Goodwin was one of Dalton’s go-to targets, finishing with four catches on eight targets for 104 yards and a score. Assuming Allen Robinson misses another game, Goodwin should see a similar snap percent (71% last week) and get at least 6-8 looks. He can pay off his cheap salary on one deep ball against a Lions secondary that has allowed 14.2 yards per reception (27th) to wide receivers this season.
Goodwin should be less popular than fellow wideout Darnell Mooney if you want to just use one Bears pass-catcher in your Dalton stack. If you want to double-down on Bears receiving options, consider either Mooney or tight end Cole Kmet.
Other notables: Darnell Mooney (CHI): $5,700 vs. DET, Bryan Edwards (LV): $3,900 vs. DAL, Cedrick Wilson (DAL): $3,500 vs. 3,500
FanDuel
Michael Gallup (DAL): $6,500 vs. LV
This past week, Gallup was a very popular play and came up short with just five catches for 44 scoreless yards. He might be chalk again with Amari Cooper out and maybe also CeeDee Lamb. However, due to his price hike and recency bias, he might be lower owned than he should be on Thursday.
Gallup did get 10 targets last week, and while he was unable to turn those looks into much production against the Chiefs doesn’t mean he can’t against the Raiders, especially in the red zone. Over the last five weeks, the Raiders have allowed 1.25 touchdowns (26th) per game to wide receivers. Add a few more yards and a score to Gallup’s line from last week, and all of a sudden, it doesn’t look too bad.
Bryan Edwards (LV): $5,300 vs. DAL
One of the Raiders wide receivers will be worth using in GPPs on Thursday. Choosing which one is a bit of a crapshoot. Hunter Renfrow will be the popular option, along with Darren Waller at tight end, but it could be Edwards or DeSean Jackson who pops up. I’m leaning toward Edwards, who did have a game with 88 yards and a score two weeks ago.
While Edwards put up a goose egg last week, he still played on 83 percent of the snaps. Getting on the field is half the battle. The other half is getting targets to come his way, which he has had at least four looks in each of the past seven weeks before last week. The Cowboys are more vulnerable to outside receivers, so Edwards could get loose for one.
Other notables: Darnell Mooney (CHI): $6,800 vs. DET, Emmanuel Sanders (BUF): $5,800 vs. LV, Cedrick Wilson (DAL): $5,600 vs. LV
Tight Ends
DraftKings
TJ Hockenson (DET): $5,200 vs. CHI
If we are rolling with a Bears passing-game stack, then the lower-owned bring-back option on the Lions side is Hockenson. Regardless of who is under center for the Lions on Thursday, Hockenson should be the top target as the tight end has at least eight targets in four of the last five games.
The Bears defense has been good against the tight end position this season, but with injuries on that side of the ball, they allowed eight catches for 73 yards to a similar player, Mark Andrews, last week with a backup quarterback slinging the rock.
Other notables: Darren Waller (LV): $6,400 vs. DAL, Juwan Johnson (NO): $2,600 vs. BUF
FanDuel
Dalton Schultz (DAL): $6,000 vs. LV
If you don’t want to use Gallup as your Cowboys pass-catcher, consider Schultz, who should be a lower-owned option and has a better matchup from the tight-end position against the Raiders. The Raiders have allowed 6.3 receptions (31st) for 67 yards (30th) and 0.6 touchdowns (28th) per game to tight ends this season.
Schultz is also a good option as a pivot off of Darren Waller, who will be very popular in Derek Carr stacks and the bring-back option in Dak Prescott stacks.
Other notables: Darren Waller (LV): $7,300 vs. DAL, Cole Kmet (CHI): $5,000 vs. DET
Defense/Special Teams
DraftKings
Lions (DET): $2,400 vs. CHI
On bigger slates using a defense against your quarterback is generally a no-no. However, on a smaller slate, it is a viable strategy for a couple of reasons. First off, it will help you get unique as most people just won’t do it as a rule. Secondly, all it takes is one pick-six by your quarterback to your defense, and all of a sudden, your defense has points, and your quarterback needs to pass more to catch up. I couldn’t think of a better game to try this strategy than with Dalton going against the Lions’ defense. Here’s hoping for an early pick-six!
Other notables: Bears (CHI): $3,000 vs. DET, Saints (NO): $2,900 vs. BUF
FanDuel
Saints (NO): $3,800 vs. BUF
Which quarterback will likely get the most attempts on Thursday’s three-game slate? The answer is Josh Allen, which means the Saints will have the most opportunities to make an impact play (sack or interception) on defense.
Other notables: Bears (CHI): $5,000 vs. DET, Cowboys (DAL): $4,000 vs. LV
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