The Giants and Buccaneers close Week 11 in a projected blowout. However, it is a topsy-turvy season that is chock full of upsets. Will the Buccaneers be the latest upset victim? I don’t think so. However, the Giants might be getting a key contributor on the offense back this week, a plus for attempting to keep pace with the Buccaneers. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay will be without at least one integral member of the offense and maybe a second.
Game: New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Giants Analysis: Saquon Barkley has been a limited participant in practice all week. He is listed as questionable, but Barkley reports he's feeling pretty good.
The Giants and Buccaneers close Week 11 in a projected blowout. However, it is a topsy-turvy season that is chock full of upsets. Will the Buccaneers be the latest upset victim? I don’t think so. However, the Giants might be getting a key contributor on the offense back this week, a plus for attempting to keep pace with the Buccaneers. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay will be without at least one integral member of the offense and maybe a second.
Game: New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Giants Analysis: Saquon Barkley has been a limited participant in practice all week. He is listed as questionable, but Barkley reports he's feeling pretty good.
Coincidentally, Barkley's last full game was in Week 4 against an NFC South opponent, the Saints. In that game, the Giants were without Sterling Shepard, and Shepard is out this week. However, the team also had the services of Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney, and both were healthy for this contest. So, that's likely a great place to look for an idea of how things might shake out for the Giants.
Promisingly, Daniel Jones had his best game as a passer this year against the Saints, racking up 402 passing yards and two touchdowns. According to Football Outsiders, the Saints are 13th in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). The Buccaneers are ranked only one place higher, ranking 12th in pass defense DVOA. Further, Jones (28.7 rushing yards per game and two touchdowns, according to Pro-Football-Reference) has better odds of doing damage as a rusher in this matchup than is typically awarded to opposing runners as nose tackle Vita Vea is doubtful.
Vea's likely absence also enhances the outlook for Barkley. Further, Barkley can do damage as a receiver in a decent matchup through the air for running backs. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bucs allow 7.11 receptions and 49.11 receiving yards per game to running backs. In addition, in Barkley's last two healthy games, he has reeled in 11 of 13 targets for 117 yards and a touchdown. Thus, he's capable of giving Tampa Bay fits as a pass-catcher.
Golladay, Darius Slayton, and Toney are Big Blue's top three receivers. In Week 9, before the team's bye, according to Pro Football Focus, Golladay and Slayton were tied among receivers for the most routes (20). Meanwhile, Toney ran only one less route. However, Evan Engram ran the most routes (25). Slayton has posted a bagel in the catch department on only three targets in his last two games, so I'm fading him.
Golladay, Toney, and Engram are all appealing to varying degrees. In addition, Toney is likely to operate from the slot. In Week 9, he aligned wide only one time and in the slot 19 times on his passing snaps. You can flip a coin between Golladay and Toney, and that's reflected in the projections above. Though, Pro Football Focus likes Golladay's projected matchup against Tampa Bay's cornerbacks better than Toney's.
Finally, Kyle Rudolph is a viable punt, thanks to his red-zone presence. According to our red zone stats, Rudolph is tied for the team lead for targets inside the 15-yard line (six), and he leads the Giants in targets inside the 10-yard line (five) and inside the five-yard line (four).
Buccaneers Analysis: The Buccaneers have a massive implied total of 30.5 points as 10.5-point favorites. If this game goes according to plan, Leonard Fournette will eat. The Giants are 30th in rush defense DVOA, awarding Fournette a mouthwatering matchup. In addition, they're allowing 4.62 yards per rush attempt to backs and struggling to defend them in the passing game, allowing 6.33 receptions and 54.33 receiving yards per game. Yes, Giovani Bernard is on the Bucs. However, Fournette is the better bet to do work through the air for Tampa Bay. In the Bucs' last three games, Fournette has run 57 routes compared to only 29 for Bernard. For the season, Fournette is averaging 4.2 receptions and 31.6 receiving yards per game. Thus, he's game-script proof. Additionally, he's my favorite player to use in this single-game contest.
Predictably, I also love Tom Brady in this contest. According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, the Buccaneers pass at the second-highest rate (67%). Brady is making the most of the pass-heavy attack, leading the NFL in passing yards per game (318.9) and touchdown passes (27). Additionally, like Jones and Barkley above, Brady and Lenny pair well as a stack, thanks to Brady frequently utilizing his backs in the passing game.
Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are absent from the table above. As noted in the intro, the Bucs are without one integral player and might be without another. The players I teased are Brown, who is out, and Gronk, whose arrow was reportedly "trending up" but didn't practice on Saturday and is a game-time decision. Even if Gronk plays, I'm unwilling to use him for fear of aggravating his injury.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are the clear top options in the passing attack with Brown out. In the four games Brown has been out this year, Evans leads the team in touchdown receptions (five), yards per reception (16.2), and has the deepest average target depth (14.8 aDot), per Pro Football Focus. Evans has also been second in routes (158), targets (27), receptions (18), and receiving yards (292).
Meanwhile, Godwin has been first on the team in routes (168), targets (36), receptions (29), and receiving yards (382), and tied for second in touchdown receptions (two). Godwin also has had a much shallower depth of target (7.4 aDot), primarily playing the slot. In my opinion, the slot wideout's volume of work and usage tilt the scale in his favor. Specifically, his shallower depth of target is a better matchup fit, as the Giants are allowing the 11th-lowest average explosive pass rate (eight percent), according to Sharp Football Stats. Of course, Evans is an excellent play in his own right, but I'm taking Godwin if picking between the talented duo.
Finally, Tyler Johnson and Cameron Brate (if Gronk is ruled out) are the other ancillary passing-attack options. Brate has run the third-most routes (108), and Johnson's run the fourth-most routes (104) in Brown's absence. Brate's ceiling is low, but he's showcased red-zone rapport with Brady at times since last year. Brady has targeted Brate seven times inside the 10-yard line since last season.
Johnson's case for usage is stronger. The second-year receiver has been tied for fourth in receptions (13), fourth in targets (19), and third in receiving yards (161) in games without Brown.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
