NBA DFS Primer: Tuesday (12/14)

COVID has been wreaking havoc on the NBA recently, and we have our first postponement of the season here. That has shortened this four-game slate into a three-game card, giving us a small player pool to work with.

As you probably know, I love short slates like this. Having just six teams in action allows you so much more time to zone in on these rosters and rotations, giving us an edge over the field. We also have numerous big players sitting with different ailments, which opens up even more value. With that in mind, let’s get started with the schedule and odds!

Get a $5 bonus when you make your first deposit at FanDuel

Schedule and Odds

• TOR at BKN (BKN -8.5) O/U: 216.5
• GSW at NYK (GSW -4) O/U: 212
• PHX at POR (PHX -2) O/U: 218
• DET at CHI (PPD)

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• OG Anunoby (hip) OUT
• Khem Birch (knee) OUT
• Precious Achiuwa (shoulder) OUT
• Joe Harris (ankle) OUT
• Kyrie Irving (vaccine) OUT
• R.J. Barrett (COVID) OUT
• Devin Booker (hamstring) OUT
• Deandre Ayton (illness) Questionable
• C.J. McCollum (lung) OUT
• Klay Thompson (Achilles) OUT

Core Plays

Kevin Durant (SF/PF – BKN): $11,600 DraftKings, $11,100 FanDuel
KD might be the greatest pure scorer in NBA history, and he’s showing why recently. Slender Man has at least 51 DraftKings points in four of his last five games, playing at least 38 minutes in all of those. If Durant keeps playing 38-42 minutes and taking 20-25 shots a night, he’s quite simply one of the best options in fantasy.

Damian Lillard (PG – POR): $9,700 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
Dame has really struggled with his shot this season, but Lillard’s struggle is different from the rest of us. The superstar point guard is still averaging 41 DK points per game despite his labors, providing a 30-point floor. That’s scary since he will be asked to do more with C.J. McCollum out, generating a 37 percent usage rate with him off the floor. That led to 47.3 DK points in his first game back, and lines like that will become typical for Dame from here on out.

Julius Randle (PF/C – NYK): $9,200 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Randle is another guy struggling by his standards, but 42 fantasy points per game are nothing to complain about. That average is plenty, but we love that he has at least 34 DK points in 20 of 27 games this season. We expect his usage to rise with R.J. Barrett and Kemba Walker out of the rotation as well, which only adds to his intrigue.

Cash Game Considerations

Stephen Curry (PG – GSW): $11,500 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
Chef Curry should become the record holder for three-pointers made here. That alone shows how ridiculous this dude is, but he’s actually in the midst of one of his best seasons. The former MVP is averaging just shy of 50 fantasy points per game, dropping at least 35 fantasy points in all but three games. That should be easy to duplicate here, with New York ranked 25th in defensive efficiency ratings. Imagine the narrative of Chef Curry cooking up that new record in MSG, and getting that burden off of his shoulders!

Chris Paul (PG – PHX): $8,400 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
The Point God is in the midst of another magical season, leading the NBA in assists. We like him here because he’s being asked to run things with Devin Booker out of the lineup. That has led to CP3 scoring at least 33 DraftKings points in 18 of his last 21 games, generating a 40-point average in that span. We love that against a Portland team surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.

Draymond Green (PF/C – GSW): $6,900 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
Curry is getting all of the credit in Golden State, but people need to look at how special Draymond has been this season. The defensive stud has scored at least 27 DK points in all but three games this season en route to a 32-point average. You can’t ask for any more from a sub-$7K player, especially against a subpar Knicks defense.

GPP Targets

Anfernee Simons (PG – POR): $5,600 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
It looks like Simons will be the second scorer with McCollum out for the foreseeable future. That’s evident in his recent form, scoring at least 29 DK points in four straight, healthy games. More importantly, he’s played at least 29 minutes in all of them while attempting at least 14 shots. That sort of usage floor is tough to find from such a cheap player, and he truly has a 50-point upside with his ability.

Mitchell Robinson (C – NYK): $3,700 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
This is all about the price. All you need is 20 points from Mitch-Rob to be a good value in this price range, and that doesn’t seem like a long shot when looking at his numbers. The big man is actually averaging 22 fantasy points per game for the season, scoring at least 18 fantasy points in nine of his last 11 games. He also makes it much easier to get studs like Curry, Harden, and Durant into your lineup, making up for any of Robinson’s inadequacies.

Immanuel Quickley (PG – NYK): $4,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
With Barrett sidelined and Walker in exile, it looks like Quickley will be one of the focal points of this offense. The young guard has scored at least 22 DK points in eight of his last 10 games, averaging 11 shots and 27 minutes a game in that span. He hasn’t even gotten hot in many of those, and we believe Quickley could be looking at 20 shots and 35 minutes if that does end up happening.

Value Plays

Chris Boucher (PF/C – TOR): $4,800 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Boucher has been a per-minute beast throughout his career and it looks like he’s in for another start with Achiwua and Birch out of the lineup. That has allowed him to play at least 23-plus minutes in four straight games, scoring at least 23 fantasy points in five straight. We’re talking about a guy averaging 1.3 DK points per minute for his career, and it’s just a matter of time before he goes off, considering his playing time is up!

Larry Nance Jr (PF/C – POR): $4,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Nance got a rare start for Robert Covington on Sunday, and it looks like he will be the starting power forward with McCollum out of the lineup. That led to one of his best games of the season, dropping 29 DK points across 26 minutes of play on Sunday. We’ve seen him do that throughout his career, and we certainly don’t mind that he faces a Phoenix team that owns a 26th OPRK against opposing power forwards, either.

Derrick Rose (PG – NYK): $5,000 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
We just talked about how Barrett and Walker are out, forcing Rose into the starting point guard job. The former MVP has played at least 33 minutes in this expanded role, averaging over 30 DraftKings points per game. That’s an amazing total from a $5K player, and he should be motivated against a team like the Warriors and a guy like Curry.

Advantageous Pricing

• Stephen Curry (PG – GSW): $11,500 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
• Jusuf Nurkic (C – POR): $7,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
• Derrick Rose (PG – NYK): $5,000 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
• Damian Lillard (PG – POR): $9,700 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
• Robert Covington (SF/SF/C – POR): $3,400 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
• Nerlens Noel (C – NYK): $3,700 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel

Get a $5 bonus when you make your first deposit at FanDuel

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts