This week’s Thursday Night Football game features a pair of teams that competed on Thanksgiving. Thus, neither is at a disadvantage because of a short week. Nevertheless, COVID-19 is an unfortunate theme for this game, as Dallas’ head coach Mike McCarthy will miss this game, and a superstar wideout might not return from the Reserve/COVID-19 list. In addition, the Saints have their own questions to answer that make analyzing their team intriguing. So, let’s dive into the fantasy-relevant players from both teams below.
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Game: Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints
Spread: DAL -4.5 Points
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
Cowboys Analysis: The Cowboys run a slightly pass-happy offense that's willing to shift gears, depending on the strengths of the opposing defense. According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, Dallas passes at the 10th-highest rate (59% versus 57% for the league average). Further, they should stick to their pass-happy way or turn them up a notch against the Saints.
According to Football Outsiders, the Saints are first in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). However, they're 13th in pass defense DVOA. As a result, I expect Dak Prescott and his pass-catching weapons to be the best options from the favored Cowboys. Prescott's demonstrated a sky-high ceiling this week, producing five games with more than 295 passing yards and multiple touchdowns. The sixth-year pro's case for a blow-up game is aided this week by the return of at least one of his stud receivers.
CeeDee Lamb is out of the NFL's concussion protocol. According to Sports Info Solutions, Lamb is 22nd in Intended Air Yards (921), despite leaving a game early with a concussion, missing one with the same concussion, and having his bye already. He's averaging 5.0 receptions and 74.0 receiving yards per game, hauling in six touchdowns. The second-year wideout is my favorite skill-position option on this single-game slate.
Amari Cooper is the player I teased potentially remaining on the Reserve/COVID-19 list this week. The linked article in the intro points out Cooper is still feeling unwell. So, his status is in question this week. As a result, even if he suits up, I will have a tough time trusting him.
If he's out, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz, and, to the most extreme extent, Cedrick Wilson, get a bump in value. I'm interested in Gallup and Schultz even if Cooper plays since they have prominent roles in the offense. However, Wilson goes from a non-factor to a fantasy option if Cooper is out. Of course, Wilson hasn't practiced this week, so he's not a guarantee to suit up, either.
If Cooper and Wilson are out, Noah Brown is the best sneaky ancillary option. In Week 11, according to Pro Football Focus, when Cooper was out, Brown ran 31 routes, the same as Wilson, and more than Malik Turner's eight. So even if Wilson plays, Brown might push Wilson for routes if the team prefers to keep Lamb in the slot.
Finally, Tony Pollard is the only back I'm interested in on the Cowboys. Ezekiel Elliott is nursing a knee injury. Team owner Jerry Jones said regarding Zeke this week, "the facts are we expect him to have a serious load against New Orleans." I think Jones' quote is a serious load of something. The matchup is dreadful, Zeke is banged up, and Pollard is more explosive. So often, the assumption of rationale coaching (hat tip to Sigmund Bloom, as always) can bite us in the butt. Nevertheless, Zeke's issue is precisely the excuse needed to turn up Pollard's usage without ruffling the incumbent starter's feathers.
According to Pro Football Focus, out of 57 backs with at least 50 carries in 2021, Pollard is ninth with 3.35 yards after contact per attempt. He's also an efficient receiving whiz, ranking fourth out of 49 running backs targeted at least 20 times with 2.17 yards per route run (Y/RR).
Saints Analysis: Alvin Kamara has been a limited participant in practice this week, and Mark Ingram has returned to practice in full after missing last week's game. If Kamara plays, his upside warrants consideration. The do-it-all back averages 105.1 yards from scrimmage and 4.0 receptions per game this season. Nonetheless, there is a risk to using him in his first game back from injury, as he could be eased into action with Ingram, a capable backup. If Kamara is out, Ingram's a stellar play. In three games without Kamara, Ingram has posted 64 yards, 108 yards, and 113 yards, as well as five receptions, four receptions, and six receptions, adding a touchdown in one game for good measure.
Meanwhile, Taysom Hill is probably starting at quarterback.
Head coach Sean Payton has attempted to throw a wet blanket on the initial report, saying, "We want to see how Taysom is doing tomorrow." Might Hill suffer a setback with his foot injury? Sure. However, I think there might be a bit of trickery at play, attempting to convince the Cowboys to spend time preparing for Trevor Siemian as well. The dual-threat quarterback is a below-average passer. However, his rushing ability makes him a fantasy asset and an excellent selection on this single-game slate. Hill is an outright steal at FanDuel.
Parsing the pass-catching options for the Saints isn't the faint of heart. It's an unexciting collection of players. Nevertheless, Since Week 10, Tre'Quan Smith has led the Saints in routes (105), targets (20), receptions (13), and receiving yards (139). Thus, he's the top option.
Still, I'm willing to save salary, spinning down to Deonte Harris, Lil'Jordan Humphrey, and Juwan Johnson at DraftKings. Unfortunately, Harris' production has dried up the last two weeks, resulting in only 20 yards from scrimmage on three receptions. However, he had five straight games of 50-plus scrimmage yards before his recent hiccups.
Meanwhile, Humphrey has tied for fourth on the team in routes (27) the last two games, corraling four receptions for 51 receiving yards and a touchdown, regularly serving as a jumbo slot. At 6'4" and 225 pounds, he's basically a tweener, like an oversized receiver or undersized tight end. His role may continue to grow without top tight end Adam Trautman.
Finally, Johnson was blanked in the box score in Week 12. However, he ran 18 routes, including 11 from the slot and three wide. As a result, the converted wideout might have untapped potential, making him a viable option on this single-game slate.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
