It’s Thursday, and you know what that means.
Since we published the trade value chart this week, you’re probably expecting our buy and sell to revolve around that.
Well, typically you’d be right since we do that every other week, but since most of the movers and shakers in this edition were caused by the trade deadline and since I spent most of the last week dissecting the deadline, I’m going in a different direction.
We’re at the All-Star break, so it’s the unofficial (and inaccurate) halfway point of the season. So what better time than now to look at the top-100 players in fantasy as of today, and go over those we buy and those we sell going forward.
Buy low, sell high is one of the oldest terms in fantasy, but it’s more involved than that. You have to look at the “low” and “high” of it to make sure you’re maximizing value. We can also buy the player, but question the team and role that they are in when it comes to maintaining the pace that they are on.
Most importantly here, with any call you make, you have to be willing to lose the deal or accept that you made the wrong call. It happens all the time when we think we are selling at the highest value, only for that player to buck the trend and play like a stud going forward.
Now that you have an idea of what to expect for this column week-to-week, let’s get to the players.
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Buy
Bridges picked a hell of a year to have a career season, as he came firing out of the gate and hasn’t slowed down since.
He’s the 12th-ranked player on the season, which is a big step up from his preseason 82nd NFC ADP.
Bridges has seen his points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks all climb from a season ago, and while his FG% has dipped, his average shots per game have climbed from 9.4 to 15.4.
Bridges was already shining for the Hornets, but with Gordon Hayward (SG/SF – CHA) out without a timetable, expect the production to continue as he heads into free agency (restricted).
DeMar DeRozan (SG,SF,PF – CHI)
There were so many articles out there that questioned the DeRozan signing by the Bulls, calling it the worst free agent move of the offseason.
The thought wasn’t wrong, but man, have the results been phenomenal for the Bulls and DeRozan alike.
DeRozan just set an NBA record by passing Wilt Chamberlain for the most consecutive games scoring 35-plus points on 50 percent shooting from the field or better.
The Bulls have had several injuries, and DeRozan is keeping them at the top of the Eastern Conference. He’s the ninth-ranked player on the season with a preseason ADP of 65, and he should be in the MVP discussion.
Poeltl still isn’t getting enough national recognition for the season that he’s having, but I get it because the Spurs are super boring (sorry, Shea Serrano).
Poeltl is the 74th-ranked player on the season, which is exactly where he was being drafted during draft season.
However, over the last month, he’s the 20th-ranked player, and with the Spurs fully embracing the suck, he’ll continue to be a big focal point of their team while playing 30-plus minutes per night.
Simons’ preseason ADP of 274 made sense with Damian Lillard (PG – POR) and CJ McCollum (PG/SG – NOR) standing in his way to significant playing time.
Well, with Lillard likely out for the year and with McCollum now in New Orleans – thanks in part to Simons’ breakout performance – the sky is the limit for him.
He’s the 87th-ranked player on the season, but he’s been the 66th-ranked player over the last month, the 38th-ranked over the last two weeks, and the 10th-ranked over the last week.
Simons is a top-30 player for me going forward.
Sell
Curry was being under drafted at 152 before the season, especially with all of the talk around Ben Simmons (PG – BKN) not playing for the Sixers, and he’s been a big part of many fantasy managers’ success so far.
But now that he’s in Brooklyn – despite putting on two clinics so far – I worry about just how productive he’ll be moving forward when the Nets get healthy.
He’s the main offensive piece for the Brooklyn in home games, but when Kevin Durant (SF/PF – BKN) and Ben Simmons return, and when Kyrie Irving (PG/SG – BKN) can play, just how many touches will that leave Curry?
I’m selling him moving forward.
Capela had an ADP of 38 before the season, and he’s the 70th-ranked player so far for fantasy.
You can’t get too mad at a top-70 performance, but it is 32 spots off from where you drafted him. I tend to allow two rounds as a grace buffer, so Capela is pretty close to breaking even.
However, he’s been pretty bad lately. Over the last months, he’s the 147th-ranked fantasy player, and Onyeka Okongwu (PF/C – ATL) has looked good when he’s been healthy and given the chance.
The Hawks aren’t good, and I’m expecting them to trade Capela during the offseason, which means more run for Okongwu and less for Capela the rest of the way.
It pains me to put Bamba here, as I was fully buying into his early-season numbers and thought he’d be a reliable fantasy option moving forward.
He’s still worth rostering, but he’s back to being the inconsistent player we’ve come to know and expect – both in production and in minutes.
He’s ranked 55th on the season, but his production over the last month (111th) and two weeks (138th) are closer to what managers expected when they drafted him 117th on average.
I love Maxey, and he’s been a revelation for the Sixers this season. For fantasy managers, he’s the 57th-ranked player on the season, and he’s been pretty consistent week-to-week and month-to-month.
While I don’t expect him to be closer to the 154 ranking that his ADP was, I am worried about a big dip in production once James Harden (PG/SG – PHI) can take the floor.
At best, he becomes the third option for the Sixers on offense. At worst, he’s relegated to being the fourth behind Harden, Joel Embiid (PF/C – PHI), and Tobias Harris (SF/PF – PHI). I’m expecting him to be closer to a top-100 player than a top-60 option.
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Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.
