There is an old saying, “what goes up must come down.” Thanks to gravity, that applies to everything on Earth. However, it also applies to players in the NFL. No athlete can play at a high level until the day they die. Maybe Tom Brady is an exception to the rule, but he also might be a cyborg robot. All jokes aside, every football player will eventually have zero fantasy value. It’s just a matter of when not if.
Basic Background Info
When players hit their peak, they are at the highest point of their careers. But, unfortunately, what goes up must come down. After a few years of success, the player’s production will start to decline. The only question is how fast will the production drop, and how significant is the drop-off?
The best feeling in fantasy football is having players on your team performing at their peak. Meanwhile, it’s an awful feeling when you have players struggling to produce for your fantasy team. Furthermore, the only feeling worse is when you can’t trade away a player at all or for only a few bucks of FAAB (Free Agent Acquisition Budget) at best.
There is an old saying, “what goes up must come down.” Thanks to gravity, that applies to everything on Earth. However, it also applies to players in the NFL. No athlete can play at a high level until the day they die. Maybe Tom Brady is an exception to the rule, but he also might be a cyborg robot. All jokes aside, every football player will eventually have zero fantasy value. It’s just a matter of when not if.
Basic Background Info
When players hit their peak, they are at the highest point of their careers. But, unfortunately, what goes up must come down. After a few years of success, the player’s production will start to decline. The only question is how fast will the production drop, and how significant is the drop-off?
The best feeling in fantasy football is having players on your team performing at their peak. Meanwhile, it’s an awful feeling when you have players struggling to produce for your fantasy team. Furthermore, the only feeling worse is when you can’t trade away a player at all or for only a few bucks of FAAB (Free Agent Acquisition Budget) at best.
It goes without saying that you want to acquire players before their peak to avoid overpaying for them. But, more importantly, you want to sell players just before they begin their decline. Otherwise, you are forced to trade them for half the return, or less, that you could have gotten a year or two ago.
What’s the Right Age?
There has been plenty of research done to determine when the prime or peak years for every position in the NFL is. Most fantasy players have heard the rule, “don’t have running backs older than 26-years-old on your team.” Generally, that’s a rule you want to follow, but it’s not written in stone. We have seen running backs’ production fall off a cliff before turning 26-years-old. A prime example is Todd Gurley.
The former Los Angeles Rams star running back was a fantasy cheat code in 2017 and 2018. He totaled 535 rushing attempts for 2,556 yards and 30 touchdowns those two years. Gurley also added another 123 receptions for 1,368 yards and 10 touchdowns in the passing game in 2017 and 2018. However, his production took a hit in 2019.
After averaging 4.8 yards per rushing attempt in 2017 and 2018, Gurley saw his yards per attempt drop to 3.8 in 2019. The number was the second-lowest of his career at that point in time. Furthermore, we saw signs of decline, and so did the Rams. Even before Gurley’s regressed 2019 season, the Rams saw the writing on the wall, as they used a 2019 third-round pick on running back Darrell Henderson.
Anyone who traded away Gurley after the 2018 season came away with a bounty of picks and players. However, anyone who waited to after the 2019 season came away with much less. Furthermore, if you were stubborn and held onto Gurley expecting a bounce-back 2020 season, you probably cut him from your roster before the start of last season. Keep in mind that Gurley didn’t turn 26-years-old until August 3, 2020.
On the other hand, Adrian Peterson was a fantasy superstar from 2007 until around 2018. Even at 36-years-old, Peterson played in the NFL last season. However, he is an outlier, not the norm or exception to the rule. Nonetheless, it’s an example of why there isn’t a set in stone age when a player’s production will disappear.
Trust the Data?
If you want to look up the best age window to draft each position, you can find it online. However, full disclosure, I am not a fan of the data. Your gut instinct is the best tool in fantasy football, as every number can be disputed or pushed back on with another number. Numbers are meaningful and provide context, but they can’t foresee everything that goes into a player.
Age is a factor when players decline, but so are several other things like injury and situation. For example, if Gurley didn’t have the chronic knee condition, he likely would have had a few more productive years in his career before flaming out. Another great example is Derrick Henry. Thanks to his situation in Tennessee early in his career, Henry remains a top running back despite being 28-years-old.
The data would have told you to sell Henry after the 2019 season when Henry was 25-years-old. However, he went on to lead the NFL in rushing yards (2,027), rushing touchdowns (17), and non-PPR fantasy points per game (25.2). While he missed half the year in 2021 because of a foot injury, Henry still finished as the RB1 in non-PPR scoring on a points per game basis (21.9 per game).
Henry has remained an elite running back past the age of 26 because of the limited workload he saw early in his career. Over the first three years of his career, Henry missed only one game and averaged just 10.7 rushing attempts per game. By comparison, Gurley missed four games and averaged 17.9 rushing attempts per game over the first three years of his career. The workload that Henry didn’t receive early in his career extended the window for his prime years in the NFL.
How to Attack the Draft?
The answer to this question depends on your mindset for your team. Do you want to compete right away or in a few years? If your mindset is to push for the championship this year, you want to draft players at their peak. Therefore, you want to target running backs like Henry, Dalvin Cook, and Christian McCaffrey early in the draft. You want to target running backs like Cordarrelle Patterson and Melvin Gordon in the middle rounds. These five running backs could all lose their value in the next year or so. However, they all finished as top-24 running backs in PPR scoring on a points per game basis last season.
On the other hand, if your goal is to tank the first year and contend starting in year two, you want to avoid all of those players. Instead, you want to target younger running backs who haven’t hit their peak yet or just hit it last year. Potential early-round targets include D’Andre Swift, Cam Akers, and Antonio Gibson. AJ Dillon and Tony Pollard are two of my favorite targets in the middle rounds.
The first trio of backs has shown to be great when on the field. Meanwhile, Dillon and Pollard currently have limited roles. However, that could quickly change. Both have older running backs who could start to decline this year ahead of them on the depth chart, opening up the possibility of a more significant role moving forward in a year or two.
While this article has focused on running backs, the mindset applies to all positions. If you are playing to win in year one, Travis Kelce should be the TE1 in your rankings. Meanwhile, Mark Andrews or Kyle Pitts should be your TE1 if you are tanking in year one. If you are pushing for the championship in year one, don’t be afraid to draft Davante Adams, Mike Evans, or Keenan Allen. However, you want to target younger wide receivers like CeeDee Lamb, Courtland Sutton, or Darnell Mooney instead if you are playing for the future.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
