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Overvalued Players to Avoid on Sleeper (2022 Fantasy Football)

by Tom Strachan | @NFL_Tstrack | Featured Writer
Jun 11, 2022
Patrick Mahomes

As redraft season takes over, it’s important to be finding value wherever possible. While Sleeper is undoubtedly one of the best fantasy football platforms out there, occasionally, their ADP can turn up players a little higher than they should be valued. This article will give you players that you should be avoiding at their ADP and generally decide if you like them enough to take them if they slip past their normal range. Don’t forget that our Expert Consensus Rankings cover all formats of fantasy football and collate many top experts rankings to show you who is being undervalued.

Fantasy Football Redraft Draft Kit

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) (QB2)

It’s always a little bit risky to call possibly the most talented quarterback in the league a bad value, but this is where we are with Mahomes. Despite losing the mercurial talent of Tyreek Hill, Mahomes is still being drafted outside of round two in single quarterback leagues. In 2021 Mahomes put up career lows in aDOT (7.4), QB rating (98.8), and pressured completion rate (42.8%). Despite ending the season with better form, it’s fair to question whether these stats were a blip, or could this be a side of Mahomes we see more regularly going forward. While Andy Reid and Travis Kelce are with Mahomes, it’s tough to imagine him not being able to reach his ceiling games anymore, but if he routinely puts up more games in the 21.0 points per game range, then his production is replaceable. Make no mistake, Mahomes is a great quarterback and a very good fantasy quarterback. Still, at this cost, it’s too high, and drafters would be better off selecting one of the elite skill position players available in this range or another QB in the following rounds who has the potential to be the QB1.

Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB) (QB10)

It’s a little surprising to see Aaron Rodgers ahead of Tom Brady in ADP by several spots when Rodgers has lost his top two receivers, Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. At the same time, Brady outperformed Rodgers in fantasy in 2021 and hasn’t lost any of his top players (assuming Rob Gronkowski eventually re-signs with the Buccanneers). Rodgers is still an excellent quarterback, and we’re not many months removed from him being awarded the league’s MVP for 2021. Unfortunately for him, the situation around him has drastically deteriorated this offseason. With Adams and MVS departing, Rodgers will be forced to rely on receivers he has less extensive relationships with. We’ve seen numerous times throughout the years that Rodgers hasn’t trusted players and chose to look away from them. The cost is simply too high when considering options around Rodgers.

Running Backs

Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS) (RB16)

In redraft, Antonio Gibson is being drafted in the middle of the third round, which is a substantially higher selection than in best ball where he often goes round five, and occasionally slips to round six. It’s fair to say that Gibson belongs ahead of round six and is one of the few NFL talents that possesses a true three-down skill set, but the Commanders have actively taken steps to prevent Gibson from taking command (pun intended) of this backfield. When J.D McKissic was on the verge of signing for the Buffalo Bills, the Commanders stepped in and made sure he re-signed in Washington, and then shortly after, in the draft, they used a day two pick on Brian Robinson. In 2021 Gibson had eight games over 15 PPR points, but he also had seven games under 10 PPR points. That type of boom or bust production can be very detrimental to fantasy teams when it comes at the cost of a third-round pick. Drafters might find more joy waiting a full round later for Breece Hall.

Devin Singletary (RB – BUF) (RB32)

Singletary had a nice set of games to end the 2021 season, but everything the Bills have done suggests they don’t want to routinely give him a sizable amount of work. The failed pursuit of J.D McKissic was followed up by signing Duke Johnson and drafting promising rookie James Cook. While it’s always nice to have a running back who is part of a top offense, Singletary has a lot of barriers towards a large upside, and in this range of drafts, there are plenty of great options at receiver and quarterback.

Wide Receivers

Treylon Burks (WR – TEN) (WR29)

When A.J Brown was traded on draft night minutes before the Titans selected Burks, it seemed inevitable Burks would walk into a large workload this upcoming season, but his ADP might be getting ahead of him. Burks has struggled with asthma through OTA’s, and while offseason narratives have sometimes made fools of those who choose fade, it doesn’t sound overly optimistic. Burks will walk into an offense that feels half in a rebuild and half not. Ryan Tannehill put up his worst fantasy numbers in a Titans uniform in 2021, and Derrick Henry (probably) can’t keep going forever. Where Burks is being drafted, you could instead select Mike Williams or Amon-Ra St. Brown, who possess similar upside and have already shown us what they can do.

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz (TE – DAL) (TE7)

2021 was a fantastic year for Dalton Schultz, and finishing as a top-five fantasy tight end is nothing to be sniffed at. Touchdowns have been Schultz’s friend, picking up eight last year, a number only bettered by four other players, but touchdown production can be hard to predict, and Schultz has never gone over 100 yards in a game. Tight ends put up 25 100+ yard games in 2021, and Schultz never eclipsed 82 yards. Arguments can be made that with Amari Cooper out of Dallas, Schultz might benefit more, and while the TE7 price feels correct, Schultz going in the fifth round is a little too rich for my liking, and I would rather draft him if he slides past his ADP.

CTAs


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