We recently rolled out our updated dynasty trade value chart with the latest values for all dynasty fantasy football players. Let’s take a deeper look at nine dynasty trade value fallers.
9 Dynasty Trade Value Fallers
Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE)
Deshaun Watson‘s a no-doubt top-five option when he gets back on the field. He was exactly that from 2019-2020, and there is no reason to think the 26-year-old won’t pick up where he left off. During his last season of play, Watson led the NFL in passing yards and yards per attempt (8.9).
Just be wary that a suspension will likely be coming down for Watson which reduces his dynasty value in the short term. Those managers in rebuild mode could try to buy the dip.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)
Somebody on the Miami Dolphins is in for a rude awakening come September. Mike Gesicki, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are all being pushed up the rankings/draft boards with hopes that Tua Tagovailoa takes a massive step forward in Year 3 under first-year head coach Mike McDaniel.
I am not as optimistic that Tagovailoa can be the vehicle to deliver fantasy goodness to all these pieces in South Beach because this offense is going to be run-heavy. McDaniel made his way up the coaching ranks under Kyle Shanahan as a standout run-game coordinator. And should he follow in the footsteps of Shanahan as the offensive mastermind in Miami, fantasy managers should expect a lot of rushing and YAC schemes.
49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo ranked 29th in aDOT in 2021 (7.6) after ranking 39th and 35th in the category the two years prior. Tagovailoa’s aDOT was 34th in the league (7.6) in 2021.
Jimmy G’s most productive seasons have seen him average just north of 16 fantasy points per game – good for QB17 in 2021. Tagovailoa has yet to eclipse 14 fantasy points per game two years into his career. He also ranked 31st in throwing at the intermediate level (62.5 PFF grade) among 37 qualifying passers last season.
So although Tua is viewed as a popular late-round quarterback among fantasy circles, I have to admit I won’t be pulling the trigger on him in 1QB redraft formats. Especially with his brutal early schedule. New England, Baltimore and Buffalo are hardly the stream-worthy spots you will be confident in starting the southpaw QB. In the Dolphins quarterback’s four combined starts versus those teams in 2021, his fantasy finishes were QB23, QB24, QB18 and QB16.
Malik Willis (QB – TEN)
A slide into the third round of the NFL Draft was ruinous to Willis’ fantasy value. He landed with the Titans, who don’t seem to be in any hurry to replace starter Ryan Tannehill. Willis has a big arm and is a potential difference-maker as a runner, but he needs a lot of refinement. Whenever Willis gets his first NFL playing time, the results are more likely to be reminiscent of late-career Cam Newton than current Josh Allen.
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)
The same approach I took on Ezekiel Elliott last year I’m applying to Alvin Kamara this year. Five years is a really good run for an NFL RB. Year six, that’s where things can start to come apart at the seams. The wear and tear of the league could set in quickly. No one wanted to listen to me last year about Zeke, but hopefully, I have your ear now. Kamara’s PPR appeal dropped dramatically from 80+ receptions per season since he came into the league to 47 in 13 games last year. He saw a career-high in carries (240, but his YPC fell from 5.0 to 3.7 year over the year). Drew Brees is long gone and so is Sean Payton. This offense could look nothing like the one that made Kamara a fantasy stud.
Ken Walker III (RB – SEA)
Pete Carroll has a stable of backs including Rashaad Penny, Travis Homer, and DeeJay Dallas who all figure to work in at some point despite Walker’s Round 2 draft capital.
Even when Carson was the RB1, he was splitting snaps.
Penny was brought back on a one-year deal for $5 million (12tth-highest cap hit), Chris Carson – if healthy – is due $6.1 million (10th-highest cap hit) and Homer/Dallas have routinely worked as pass-catchers out of the backfield.
Seattle also finished dead-last in targets to the RB position last season, creating serious doubt that Walker will be used in that fashion in any capacity as a rookie. Part of that is on Russell Wilson‘s lack of juice in the screen game, but the offense itself doesn’t predicate much RB pass-game usage. Geno Smith posted a meager 12% RB target rate (three per game) in his three starts last season. Drew Lock was at 17%.
The Seahawks have the chance to be a running back by committee and dumpster fire on offense this season for all the reasons I’ve laid out, which is why I am adamantly against paying the premium for Walker. If this team falls behind in games, there’s no telling which RB will even be on the field.
I feel so much better about going with one of the many rookie WRs selected in Round 1 ahead of Walker based on his landing spot.
Hopefully, opportunities should open in this backfield in Year 2 for Walker with Penny likely leaving in free agency. But does he get replaced with another Day 2 running back? Will Seattle’s offense even be efficient in 2023 and beyond? So much uncertainty with this entire situation has me hesitant.
David Montgomery (RB – CHI)
Despite being an entrenched workhorse, David Montgomery finished as a top-24 running back in fewer than half of his contests last season (46%). Former sixth-rounder Khalil Herbert was a top-12 running back in two of his five games last season when he received at least a 50% snap share.
Just don’t draft David Montgomery. Projected volume is the only reason he’s going where his ADP is, but a new coaching staff could approach the backfield differently. In my heart of hearts, I think Herbert is the better, more explosive back. Monty finished outside the top 24 in more than half of his games last season. His 2022 ADP hits inside the top-20 RBs. No thanks.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL)
Ezekiel Elliott is coming off a down season where some of this could be related to the fact he dealt with a partially torn PCL for much of the season (since Week 4). The spliced-up workload and his declining effectiveness could result from the injury or his advancing age and the toll that the NFL has taken on him. Elliott has amassed 1,938 touches (22 per game) over his six-year career, never handling less than 268 touches in any season. Elliott should be viewed as an RB2 in many formats that could slowly dissolve into a high-end RB3 if Tony Pollard gets more run in 2022.
Chase Claypool (WR – PIT)
Chase Claypool went from 11 TD to two last year and although Ben Roethlisberger certainly wasn’t a world-beater at the end, Mitchell Trubisky and Kenny Pickett are unproven QBs at the NFL level. George Pickens was drafted by the Steelers and I already think he has more talent than Claypool. He could end up the way of Devin Funchess. Big-bodied WR that teased and then never delivered.
Adam Trautman (TE – NO)
Adam Trautman missed three games last season due to an MCL sprain, but his season was still a massive disappointment outside of the injury. His 1.05 yards per route run and 4.1 yards after the catch per reception won’t get anyone excited for his 2022 prospects. Last year’s depth chart was a perfect storm scenario for him to step forward if that was in the cards for his career arch. Sadly he only logged one top 12 tight end fantasy finish last year. The hope helium has been drained from his balloon. He’s waiver wire fodder or a streaming option should injuries strike the Saints depth chart.
FantasyPros Staff Consensus Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings
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