The recent explosion of online betting and new, inventive ways to play fantasy sports has most of our heads spinning. No House Advantage’s new app that lets you stack over/under prop bets to win real money. I’ll be here every week giving you my favorite prop bet plays to help you build a winning stack.
Thursday Night Football
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams – 8:15 PM EST – NBC
O/U 2.5 Total TDs
After a disappointing loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship game last season, Buffalo and QB Josh Allen are out for blood. This season-opening match-up could be a Super Bowl LVII preview, so expect Allen to put it all on the table. In 2021, Allen scored less than three total TDs only four times. He threw four TD passes in a Week 3 match-up against this Rams squad in 2020 and added another on the ground. Lacking any real red zone threat at RB, he will be the de facto goalline rushing option in an explosive offense. At 2.5 total TDs, this is an easy over.
O/U 280 Passing Yards
Sometimes the best thing to do is not overthink things. For example, a Week 1 match-up against a stout Buffalo Bills defense might scare you away from Rams QB Matthew Stafford, but it shouldn’t. The Los Angeles Rams are fresh off a Super Bowl LVI win and have something to prove. The RB corps is a muddy mess. Cam Akers is barely a year removed from an Achilles tendon tear, veteran Darrell Henderson is banged up heading into the season, and it is unclear just how much rookie Kylen Williams will be involved off the bat. Stafford should have a minimum of 45 passing attempts in this game and will blast past the 280 yards needed to win the over on this prop bet.
Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
O/U 55.5 Rushing Yards
It was impressive to see RB Cam Akers back on the field in Week 18 last season after tearing his Achilles tendon the week before training camp opened. However, we don’t typically see RBs perform at an effective level post-tear, especially not barely a year removed. To boot, Akers will be in a committee with veteran Darrell Henderson and rookie Kylen Williams, who expect to receive touches in Week 1. In what should be a high-scoring shootout against a potent Buffalo offense, Akers is unlikely to see enough opportunity to get anywhere near 50 yards on the ground. Taking the under is a safe play to keep your stack intact.
O/U 60.5 Rushing Yards
Recency bias is a hell of a drug, folks. Gabe Davis had an electric playoff performance last season, snagging eight catches for 201 receiving yards and four TDs. However, that was only the third time he eclipsed even 50 receiving yards last season. While WRs Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley are no longer on the team, they did acquire Jameson Crowder, Isaiah McKenzie has been impressive, and Dawson Knox didn’t disappear. Stephon Diggs is still Allen’s go-to pass-catcher, and there are too many other talented targets on this team. Putting money on someone to exceed their historical ceiling in Week 1 against a solid Rams pass defense is fool’s gold. Play it safe and take the under on this one.
Sunday Early Slate – 1 PM EST
- New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons – FOX
- Cleveland Browns @ Carolina Panthers – CBS
- San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears – FOX
- Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals – CBS
- Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions – FOX
- Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans – CBS
- New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins – CBS
- Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets – CBS
- Jacksonville Jaguars @ Washington Commanders – FOX
O/U 4.5 receptions
Things seemed bleak for the 49ers and Deebo Samuel at points this offseason. They worked things out, however, and Deebo is back and happy as ever. Head coach Kyle Shanahan has stated they will use Samuel in a similar role to 2021, and with a second-year QB in Trey Lance taking the reigns, he will be a welcome safety blanket for the young, inexperienced signal caller. A Week 1 match-up against a shaky Bears defense is just what the doctor ordered. Lance should thrive against the second-worst secondary in football per PFF.com, and Samuel will be the primary beneficiary. He should smash the over on this prop, and you should too.
O/U 70.5 Receiving Yards
The Cincinnati Bengals are fresh off a disappointing loss in Super Bowl LVI and have something to prove. They get to start the revenge tour at home against a division foe, the Pittsburgh Steelers, with the 28th-ranked secondary in the league, per PFF.com. They will have their hands full with second-year WR Ja’Marr Chase, allowing Higgins to feast. He had 74 catches behind Chase last season, six of which came against the Steelers in Week 12. Higgins is primed to exceed the prop in this game, making it an easy over bet.
O/U 59.5 Rushing Yards
Chicago Bears fans are in for a long season. The front office cleared out former GM Ryan Pace and head coach Matt Nagy this offseason, but things are still not alright. Second-year QB Justin Fields is behind the curve developmentally as an NFL QB and has little receiver support outside of WR Darnell Mooney and TE Cole Kmet. The Bears will likely be a ground-heavy team again in 2022, and RB David Mongomery should be in for a significant workload against a solid San Francisco defense. While this seems like a straightforward take on the over, the San Francisco run defense is stout, only allowing an average of 98.7 yards per game on the ground. With the mobile Fields in play and RB Khalil Herbert due for an increased opportunity, it’s challenging to see Montgomery touching the 60-yard mark this week. Take the under on this one.
Justin Fields (QB – CHI)
O/U 35.5 Rushing Yards
While I’ve faded a rushing prop bet on Bears RB David Montgomery, I like this one for QB Justin Fields. As previously stated, this Bears offense will be run-heavy in 2022. Fields will have a fair amount of designed runs similar to Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia last season. In addition, Fields will be under significant pressure playing behind a putrid offensive line and could be scrambling for his life, leading to even more rushing production. While Montgomery and Herbet will also factor into the run game, Fields could very well be the leading rusher on this team. I will gladly take the over on 35.5 rushing yards every week it’s on the table.
O/U 65.5 Rushing Yards
No matter how much we want Miles Sanders to be a thing, it’s an unlikely outcome this season. QB Jalen Hurts is primed to be the team’s leading rusher in 2022, RB Kenneth Gainwell is in his second season and has looked solid in camp action, and Boston Scott reminded us this preseason that he still exists. The opportunity for Sanders simply isn’t there. While Detroit is one of the poorer run defenders in the league, the likelihood that he sees enough touches to get close to 65.5 yards is very slim. This is an under bet that will pay off.
Look for these and other props on No House Advantage 
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Nate Polvogt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @NatePolvogt.
