We all have that one friend. The doomsday-prepping conspiracy theorist who swears we’re not as serious as we need to be about what is going on in the world. Although unlikely, if that friend plays fantasy football, he or she would likely be receptive to the Zero-RB draft strategy. This isn’t a knock. Plenty of recent events have me re-examining my worldview. I have also come around on Zero-RB considerably, undoubtedly through subversive indoctrination from the anti-fragility hive.
The Zero-RB strategy, or “anti-fragility” philosophy, stems from a fantasy manager addressing all other positions besides running back early in drafts to stock up on elite options at positions with less injury risk. You might have seen one of their draft boards, with a dizzying sequence of top WRs dragging a blue stripe all the way down the screen. When do they address RBs? It varies by manager, but the common thread is that the rest of the starting positions have been filled before the first RB graces their roster. They then fill their starting RB slots and most (if not all) of their bench with RBs to give the position a “buckshot” approach.
These fantasy teams are not uncommon anymore, especially among analysts. They are no better or worse than any other type of strategy…early in the season. Zero-RB teams need chaos to succeed. They thrive on the darkness left by RB injuries and get stronger as the season progresses. The RBs that are drafted by these “whackos” are often a cornucopia of scat backs and handcuffs. When the bell cow goes down, these sleeper cell RBs are suddenly given orders and pick up the musket. If you are into experimenting with alternate fantasy lifestyles, here are the “dormant” RBs to target in fantasy drafts.
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There is a very popular narrative circulating that believes the Eagles will pass at a higher rate in 2022 now that they have AJ Brown. They also now have all of the skill position infinity stones to duplicate what offensive coordinator Shane Steichen could do when he was with the Chargers. Brown and DeVonta Smith are the new Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. They filled their Austin Ekeler role last season when they selected Gainwell in the fifth round.
Last year’s regime change signaled a shift in philosophy from the Doug Pederson era. The Sirianni offense would try to get their athletes in favorable matchups with a lot of unique formations and “positionless” football. When Jalen Hurts struggled as a passer last year, and Miles Sanders got hurt, they took a hard shift into a physical running identity because it was what personnel dictated. This year, the personnel dictates a return to a track meet style passing offense. Gainwell is easily the most dynamic RB in Philly over Sanders and Boston Scott. He is also far and away the best receiver of the bunch. The narrative, along with Gainwell’s favorable skill set, leads me to believe he will string together some monster performances in 2022 from an ADP well into the double-digit rounds.
From slightly earlier in drafts, another second-year RB is contending with an entirely different narrative. Carter was dazzling in moments for the lowly Jets as a rookie last season. He went one round earlier than Gainwell but lacks the open-field firepower and innate polish as a receiver. The Tar Heel is not really remarkable in any way analytically but is simply a good football player. Even though Carter compiled nearly 1,000 yards from scrimmage in 14 games as a rookie on a bad team, there was still a strong suspicion the team would add to the RB room through the draft. Unfortunately for Carter, they added the consensus best RB in the entire 2022 draft class in Breece Hall.
Hall is a truly remarkable talent, but Carter is still going to command a strong share of this LaFleur offense. I project him to have entire series and quarters to himself, with plenty of room to maneuver. New York also added Garrett Wilson to the receiving corps, which poses an incredible challenge for opposing defenses. Carter will face even fewer defenders at the line of scrimmage and is more than capable of making plays as a receiver out of the backfield. Even in a 60/40 split with Hall, Carter is a value as a 9th-round fantasy pick.
The Dolphins backfield is shaping up a little bit with Sony Michel‘s release, but it’s still an unsightly mess. Edmonds joins Raheem Mostert and incumbents Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed in a very crowded RB room in South Beach. Edmonds is the only one I would even consider selecting in a fantasy draft. He is an exemplary receiver with explosive speed and agility after the catch. Mostert is one of the fastest players in the NFL, but is limited as a receiver and has an extensive injury history. Gaskin is one of the least efficient runners in the NFL and seemed to only factor in games where defenses left him completely uncovered. Ahmed is better than Gaskin but has been relegated to special teams instead of a meaningful offensive role without injuries.
Edmonds’ injury history is also extensive, but not nearly as serious as Mostert’s. The McDaniel offense is sure to mirror plenty of Shanahan principles and put the best athletes in space with a ton of misdirection and pre-snap motion. Miami is certainly not lacking in the speed and athleticism department, giving great confidence that Edmonds has plenty of upside with a meaningful role. I expect his ADP to rise slightly with the Michel cut, but still firmly at the top of the list of Zero-RB options at RB34 and eighth-round ADP.
The pattern is clear: the type of RB to target with this strategy needs a clear pathway to a meaningful role (or at least a built-in role as a receiving back). The exciting rookie from Georgia has both of those in spades. Although not quite as powerful as his brother Dalvin, James Cook is not a small RB. Both Zack Moss and Devin Singletary are considerably smaller in stature and much less explosive athletically. Moss has also been the subject of recent trade rumors.
New offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey has a new multi-tool to add to his already-stellar array of skill players in Buffalo. Cook is more rugged between the tackles than given credit for and can be deployed as a receiver from anywhere in the formation. There is a real possibility that Cook will quickly earn the majority of RB snaps for the Bills over Singletary. Even if he doesn’t, his utility as a PPR weapon makes him a wonderful Zero-RB target at his 10th round ADP (RB41).
Along the same lines as Cook, the Buccaneers have gone out of their way to provide their lead back with some relief. Leonard Fournette was the only RB that outgoing head coach Bruce Arians trusted with any measurable workload. Ronald Jones was tossed haphazardly into the wind, leaving behind only Lombardi Lenny and Ke’Shawn Vaughn. Their selection of White early in the third round of this year’s draft immediately revealed how they feel about the explosive-yet-inconsistent Vaughn, especially on pivotal third downs.
We should have seen this coming last season when the Bucs went out and signed Giovani Bernard. He didn’t see the field much more than to spell Fournette but was certainly more trusted in the passing game as a receiver and pass protector than Vaughn. White, a stellar athlete from Arizona State, has incredible receiving chops and was among the best pass-protecting RBs in the 2022 rookie class. White is also similar to Cook in that he is not a diminutive scat back. Although not a power-style runner, White is big and difficult to bring down with a single defender. He very well could be in line for a big workload should Fournette miss time in 2022, but at the very least will have a versatile role as a third-down back in an extremely pass-forward offense with a QB who floods his RBs with targets. White is assuredly going to pay off at his RB57 price tag at the very tail end of fantasy drafts.
Despite Pierce’s furious climb up the ADP chart, he is still an amazing value target for Zero-RB drafters. In fact, he is probably the best of the bunch. The former Florida Gator is a rugged ball carrier who runs in the same style as the late Marion Barber: with bad intentions. He has done everything right this offseason to get noticed by NFL eyeballs. From his dominant performance in the Senior Bowl festivities in Mobile, AL, to his torrid preseason against live competition, many are wondering how in the world the University of Florida so badly failed to feature Dameon Pierce.
The Houston Texans have not yet publicly announced the bruising rookie tailback as their starting RB, but for all intents and purposes, he is clearly their best option to tote the rock. They recently released Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead has shown he is not “lead back” material. Pierce is still going as RB38 in fantasy drafts this summer but has double-digit touchdown upside as the Texans’ de facto starter. He still is screaming into single-digit rounds but should still be a priority RB for anyone adopting the Zero-RB strategy.
I love David Montgomery. He is one of the hardest-working players in the NFL. Still, Khalil Herbert earned some major street cred last season when the Bears didn’t miss a beat after Monty went down with an injury. The former Virginia Tech Hokie is a very well-rounded football player, very similar to Montgomery. The new regime under Matt Eberflus has entrusted the offense to longtime offensive assistant Luke Getsy. Getsy was a QB coach for Green Bay but has also coached over WRs in the NFL. It remains to be seen how he views the division of snaps among Montgomery, Herbert, and incoming satellite back Trestan Ebner.
Herbert stands to be the direct beneficiary of a Montgomery injury at the very least. One of the brightest moments of the 2021 season for Chicago was when the 11-toed rookie was the first (and only) 100-yard rusher versus the vaunted Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense last season. The incredible performance was deeply buried in the throngs of a ghastly offense orchestrated by Matt Nagy. More than likely, the new coaching staff will adopt the ever-popular RBBC (running backs by committee), with Monty, Herbert, and others rotating in a painful exercise for fantasy managers. With what I saw from Khalil Herbert on tape from Virginia Tech and last season in Chicago, I will still confidently roster him at the end of my drafts. His ADP of RB52 is at his absolute floor.
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