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Chiefs vs. Buccaneers DFS Advice: Optimal Lineups, Targets, Strategy (2022 Fantasy Football)

by Mike Maher | @mikeMaher | Featured Writer
Oct 2, 2022

Daily Fantasy Contests require a different strategy than what you use to set your weekly lineups, and that’s even more true for these “island” or “standalone” games (Thursday Night Football, Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football, etc.). In these contests, you typically have only a handful of lineup spots and players from just two teams to choose from. If you want to win money (or at least win “big” money in GPP contests), you have to be savvy and take some risks.

I’ll walk you through the current optimal lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings via our DFS Lineup Optimizer and share some of my notes and strategies for this particular matchup. Note: these are the current optimal lineups. For updated lineups based on adjusted projections throughout the day, be sure to access the DFS Lineup Optimizer tool.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.

Optimal Lineups for Sunday Night Football

FanDuel Optimal Lineup (GPP)

Week 4
POS PLAYER PROJ. PTS SALARY
1.5x P. Mahomes II
KC @ TB
31.9 $17,000
FLEX T. Brady
KC @ TB
18.8 $15,000
FLEX M. Evans
KC @ TB
14.6 $13,000
FLEX M. Valdes-Scantling Q
KC @ TB
7.8 $8,500
FLEX J. McKinnon
KC @ TB
5.8 $6,500
Totals 110.3 $59,500

 

Notes

This lineup doesn’t take many risks and is probably good for both cash and GPP contests. It locks in both quarterbacks, a high-end and consistent WR in Mike Evans, and then two pretty solid dart throws in MVS and McKinnon. McKinnon could see more work against a tough Tampa Bay defense, while Valdes-Scantling has the ability to break one off at any time, especially in this offense. And just to note: MVS is listed as questionable but is expected to play.

DraftKings Optimal Lineup (GPP)

Week 4
POS PLAYER PROJ. PTS SALARY
CPT T. Brady
KC @ TB
35.5 $15,000
FLEX P. Mahomes II
KC @ TB
27.0 $11,400
FLEX Tampa Bay (TB)
KC @ TB
12.4 $3,200
FLEX M. Evans
KC @ TB
23.2 $9,400
FLEX L. Fournette
KC @ TB
22.5 $10,400
FLEX S. Moore
KC @ TB
5.1 $200
Totals 97.6 $49,800

 

Notes

Skyy Moore was a fantasy darling before the season but hasn’t been very involved to start the year. But if you’re going to give him to me for free in a single-game GPP contest in the Kansas City offense with Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback? Sign me up. I’ll roll the dice on that one. The rest of this lineup includes both QBs, a gamble on the Tampa Bay defense, and solid floor plays in Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette. The hope for a lineup like this is that the studs produce, the longshot dart throw breaks one (or two), and the TB defense forces turnovers and sacks (and defensive touchdowns are always nice, of course).

Yahoo Optimal Lineup (GPP)

POS PLAYER PROJ. PTS SALARY
1.5x P. Mahomes II
KC @ TB
40.5 $33
FLEX T. Brady
KC @ TB
23.8 $28
FLEX L. Fournette
KC @ TB
18.8 $24
FLEX J. Smith-Schuster
KC @ TB
13.0 $15
FLEX Kansas City (KC)
KC @ TB
11.5 $14

 

Notes

Even in GPP, it’s clear the optimizer likes starting both quarterbacks. The Mahomes-Smith-Schuster stack is a decent dart throw, especially since JuJu is a very affordable $15. Our projections have him as a Top 6 player for this matchup, but he’s outside of the Top 15 in terms of price. That’s exactly the kind of gamble you want to take.

OwnersBox Optimal Lineup (GPP)

POS PLAYER PROJ. PTS SALARY
QB T. Brady
KC @ TB
18.9 $6,400
RB L. Fournette
KC @ TB
17.9 $5,900
RB C. Edwards-Helaire
KC @ TB
12.1 $5,800
WR M. Evans
KC @ TB
17.4 $6,000
WR R. Gage Q
KC @ TB
10.7 $4,800
TE T. Kelce
KC @ TB
17.6 $6,300
FLEX C. Brate
KC @ TB
6.4 $4,200
FLEX S. Miller
KC @ TB
4.0 $3,500
SF P. Mahomes II
KC @ TB
21.3 $7,100

 

Notes

This could be a sneaky lineup if one of Chris Godwin or Julio Jones ends up being inactive. However, it sounds like they are both going to try and give it a go. That buries Scotty Miller, but that’s why he’s a cheap dart throw. If all of Mike Evans, Godwin, Jones, and Russell Gage are active, I’m probably pivoting away from Miller and Brate and running this lineup through the optimizer again. When I try that now, it adds Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Noah Gray. That feels like a lineup that is safer and with more upside. We touched on MVS earlier, and Noah Gray plays around 50% of the offensive snaps in Kansas City and could sneak in a touchdown.

Lineup Builders

Tom Brady (QB – TB) and Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC): No need to overthink this one. Both of these offenses run through the quarterback. Start out with both and figure out the rest.

Mike Evans (WR – TB)

Leonard Fournette (RB – TB)

Dart Throws

Noah Gray (TE – KC): Only in larger lineups like OwnersBox.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR – KC)

Jerick McKinnon (RB – KC)

Skyy Moore (WR – KC)

Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.

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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

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