NFL DFS Week 12 Value Plays (2022)

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I took last week off from my value column, so I don’t have a recap to discuss, but I had a couple of guys I mentioned on my podcasts that did well for me, including Najee Harris and Juwan Johnson. I’m hoping I can nail a few more guys this week, so let’s get to it…

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Quarterback

Draftkings

Tom Brady (TB) @ CLE $5,800

The Browns rank 27th in pass defense DVOA on the season. With Brady and the Bucs coming off a bye and all of his weapons healthy, it could result in a long day for the Cleveland secondary. The last time Brady was sub-$6k — Week 4 against the Chiefs — he dropped a season-high 29.4 Draftkings points.

Others to Consider: Taylor Heinicke (WAS) $5,300

Fanduel

Taylor Heinicke (WAS) vs. ATL $6,500

As usual, Fanduel has done a much better job at pricing this week than DraftKings, leaving me very few cheap options I like. If forced to choose, I’m going with Heinicke, who gets a great matchup with a Falcons team ranked 28th in pass-defense DVOA. The Falcons give up the seventh most points to quarterbacks on the season and the third-most passing yards per game.

Others to Consider: Marcus Mariota (ATL) @ WAS $7,000

Running Back

Draftkings

Rachaad White (TB) @ CLE $5,100

Every week on my Podcast, the Armchair Fantasy Show, we do a “Lock of the Week” segment, and this week I took White as my lock. The Browns are dead last in run defense DVOA, and only the Texans give up more fantasy points to running backs than Cleveland (via FTNFantasy). The Bucs rank near the bottom of the league in nearly all rushing efficiency numbers on the season, but in their last game before the bye, they committed to the run, with White getting 22 carries. If that trend continues, White will have a huge fantasy day.

Others to Consider: Jeff Wilson (MIA) $5,900, Jerick McKinnon (KC) $4,700

Fanduel

Marlon Mack (DEN) @ CAR $4,500

Mack is my “shot-in-the-dark” call of the week. The Broncos only have two running backs on their active roster as of Thursday night. That could change by Sunday, but I would expect whoever they bring up from the practice squad to be used only in an emergency. That leaves Latavius Murray as the starter and Mack as the No. 2. Murray has been limited in practice all week, and while I expect him to play, Mack should get some touches as well. Mack has not recorded a carry all season, but if given a chance this week against the 21st-ranked run defense, maybe he can make some noise. His price opens up a lot of options at the other positions in your roster.

Others to Consider: Antonio Gibson (WAS) $6,100, Cam Akers (LAR) $5,900

Wide Receiver

Draftkings

Treylon Burks (TEN) vs. CIN $4,200

I was a week early on the Burks breakout game, as I had him in 70% of my builds two weeks ago. Last week he went off for 111 yards on seven catches for the best game in his young career. This week he gets a tough matchup with the Bengals, who rank 10th in pass defense DVOA, but Burks has a 22% target share in games he has started and finished, and, of the top three receivers on the Titans, Burks has the best WR/CB matchup rating at 57.6 (via FTNFantasy).

Others to Consider: Demarcus Robinson (BAL) $4,300, Josh Palmer (LAC) $5,400

Fanduel

Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE) vs. TB $6,300

Once again, finding value on Fanduel is much harder than it is on DraftKings, and I had to settle for Peoples-Jones. The Bucs are a tough matchup, ranking sixth in pass defense DVOA, but the defense will key on Amari Cooper and will leave DPJ one-on-one most of the game. He has had 15 targets over his last two games and his first TD of the season last week.

Others to Consider: Treylon Burks (TEN) $5,900

Tight End

Draftkings

Trey McBride (ARI) vs. LAC $3,100

The Tight End position is ugly this week — horrid, in fact. It would be my advice to pay up at tight end this week, but if you are going to punt the position, McBride might be the best option. McBride, getting the first start of his career last week, had only 14 yards on four catches, but that was with a backup quarterback against a tough 49er defense. This week he gets a Chargers’ defense that gives up the seventh most points to tight ends on the season, and the return of Kyler Murray should help boost his production.

Fanduel

Cade Otton (TB) @ CLE $4,900

Otton, despite the return of Cameron Brate, is the preferred tight end in this offense, as he got 62% of the snaps last week. Unfortunately, he didn’t do much with it, as the Bucs were able to dominate the Seahawks in the run game, and most of Otton’s snaps were spent blocking. There is a chance that could be the case again this week, but in a week where the tight end position is this ugly, Otton has as good a chance as any to fall into the endzone.

Others to Consider: Trey McBride (ARI) $4,800

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