The Colts are 1-1 since the head-scratching hiring of Jeff Saturday as their interim head coach. The Steelers are visiting them and are 1-1 since their bye in Week 9. Sadly, if you’re a fan of fireworks, this game probably isn’t for you. The game’s total is under 40 points. However, the spread is small. Does that mean gamers should build balanced lineups? Not necessarily.
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: IND -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 39.0 Points
The Colts are 1-1 since the head-scratching hiring of Jeff Saturday as their interim head coach. The Steelers are visiting them and are 1-1 since their bye in Week 9. Sadly, if you’re a fan of fireworks, this game probably isn’t for you. The game’s total is under 40 points. However, the spread is small. Does that mean gamers should build balanced lineups? Not necessarily.
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: IND -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 39.0 Points
Steelers Analysis: The Kenny Pickett era isn't off to a fast start. The offense is underwhelming, and the rookie signal-caller hasn't reached the low threshold of 20 fantasy points in a game yet. Yuck. Thus, he's not a must-use option.
Running back Najee Harris has turned in back-to-back stellar showings. However, he's also a reasonable fade. According to Football Outsiders, the Colts are sixth in rush defense DVOA. The second-year running back is also an afterthought in the passing game, decreasing the appeal of using him even further.
Instead, Pittsburgh's pass-catchers are the most viable options. Pat Freiermuth is the best option from the Steelers. According to numberFire, Freiermuth has led the Steelers in Targets Share (26.4%), receptions (12) and air yards (178) and has tied for the lead in receiving yards (115) since Pittsburgh's bye in Week 9.
George Pickens was tied for second in Target Share (13.9%), second in receptions (seven) and air yards (157), tied for first in receiving yards (115) and has the team's only receiving touchdown since the bye. The matchup is better for Freiermuth than Pickens, adding another check in the pros column for using the second-year tight end ahead of the rookie wide receiver.
According to Football Outsiders, No. 2 wide receivers have averaged the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game (36.0) against the Colts. Tight ends haven't been world-beaters against the Colts, but they've been roughly average, averaging 47.5 receiving yards per game (49.7 is the NFL average) against Indy this season.
Gunner Olszewski is the most exciting punt on this showdown contest. He's rotated with Cam Sims for the third wide receiver spot since the club traded Chase Claypool. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Olszewski has run 32 routes, and Sims has run 31 since Week 10. Olszewski gets the edge over Sims because he's outperformed him, catching three passes for 43 yards versus only one 15-yard reception for Sims.
Colts Analysis: In a surprise to no one, Saturday has leaned into the run. Per numberFire, the Colts have attempted 52 passes and 46 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts in the interim head coach's two games at the helm.
Jonathan Taylor has been a workhorse in the previous two games. Last year's leading rusher had a 94% snap share in Week 10 and reached a 75% mark in Week 11. Taylor has turned his stellar playing time into 44 carries, 231 rushing yards, two touchdowns, six targets, five receptions and 26 receiving yards since Week 10. Taylor is a workhorse with a sky-high ceiling and should have a good game script.
Matt Ryan has been a disappointment this year. Regardless, he's been a fantasy-friendly player in retractable roof settings this year. Per Pro-Football-Reference, Matty Ice has averaged 306.4 passing yards per game, completed 70.56% of his passes, tossed eight touchdowns and thrown two interceptions in five games in stadiums with a retractable roof. Further, Ryan also passed for 222 yards, completed 75% of his passes, threw one touchdown and didn't throw an interception in his only game in a dome this year.
The play-calling tendencies against the Steelers have also been promising for Ryan's outlook. Pittsburgh's opponents have attempted 283 passes and 167 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts this year. Additionally, the Steelers are more vulnerable against the pass than the run, even when T.J. Watt has been healthy. The Steelers are first in rush defense DVOA and 10th in pass defense DVOA in three games with a healthy Watt.
Indy's wideouts have a mouthwatering matchup against the Steelers. No. 1 wideouts have averaged the 11th-most receiving yards per game (75.0), No. 2 wide receivers have averaged the second-most receiving yards per game (62.3), and other wideouts have averaged the fifth-most receiving yards per game (51.4) against the Colts. Moreover, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Steelers have allowed the 11th-most receptions (134) and tied for the most touchdowns allowed (14) to wide receivers this year, resulting in allowing the most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to the position.
Michael Pittman is Indy's No. 1, Parris Campbell is their No. 2, and rookie Alec Pierce is their No. 3 receiver. The following table has their stats since Week 10, with routes and Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) courtesy of PFF, and the other stats are from numberFire.
Campbell is a screaming value. Pittman isn't a bargain. Nevertheless, he's a high-upside choice. Finally, Pierce's underlying numbers have been more encouraging than his three receptions for 28 scoreless yards in the last two games.
Final Thoughts: Taylor is the most exciting captain/MVP. Yet, Ryan is also an awesome pick. Gamers also shouldn't dismiss Campbell or Pittman from captain/MVP consideration, either. And my preferred roster construction is imbalanced, featuring no more than two Steelers and frequently only one.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
