Freedman’s Favorites: Week 14 (2022 Fantasy Football)
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UPDATE NOTE (Sat. 12/10, 12:15 pm ET): This piece has been updated.
Freedman’s Favorites for Week 14
Here are my Week 14 favorites. These are the players who (in some combination) …
- Will probably be high in my rankings relative to the expert consensus rankings (ECR).
- Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
- Possess underappreciated upside.
- Have advantageous matchups.
- Appear in my DFS player pool.
- Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
- Are on teams with player-friendly Week 14 betting odds.
- Stand out in our industry-leading BettingPros NFL Prop Bet Analyzer.
- Catch my eye with their Week 14 projections.
I’ll update this piece by Saturday night with notes based on the week’s injury reports and news items. Before then, follow our NFL news desk for information on any breaking news. After the update, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my personal Week 14 rankings, not this article.
Note: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.
Abbreviations: Fantasy points per game (FPPG), against the spread (ATS), over/under (O/U), adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), expected points added per play (EPA), success rate (SR), completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), AirYAC (air yards and yards after catch), expected fantasy points (FPx), fantasy point overperformance (FPOP).
FantasyPros Accuracy Contest
Freedman’s Favorite Week 14 Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts (PHI) at NYG: Eagles -7 | 45.5 O/U
- Last week, Hurts lit up our Game Day app with a position-high 34.4 fantasy points on 380-3-0 passing with a 74.3% completion rate and 11.3 AY/A and 5-12-1 rushing.
- Hurts has steadily progressed as a passer throughout his career and now ranks No. 2 in AY/A (9.0) and No. 6 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.140, per RBs Don’t Matter).
- Hurts has an incredibly high Konami Code floor, given that he’s No. 1 at the position in carries inside the five-yard line (18, per our Red Zone Stats Report) and total carries (132, per our Fantasy Football Stats Report).
- The Giants are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA (14.0%, per Football Outsiders).
The No. 1 QB in fantasy football so far this season:
🦅 Jalen Hurts pic.twitter.com/YexpE1Prq3
— ESPN Fantasy Sports (@ESPNFantasy) December 6, 2022
Hurts Update (Sat. 12/10): For the Giants, CB Adoree’ Jackson (knee) is out and DT Leonard Williams (neck) is doubtful. Hurts is my No. 1 fantasy quarterback this week.
Justin Herbert (LAC) vs. MIA: Chargers +3 | 52 O/U
- In his three games since No. 1 WR Keenan Allen returned in Week 11, Herbert has been at his best (889-6-1 passing, 69.4% completion rate, 7.8 AY/A).
- For the season, Herbert is No. 1 with 340 completions and 510 pass attempts overall and No. 2 with 140 pass attempts of 10-plus yards (per our Advanced QB Stats Report).
- The Dolphins are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (20.8 FPPG, per our Fantasy Points Allowed Report).
Herbert Update (Sat. 12/10): RT Trey Pipkins (knee) is doubtful, but C Corey Linsley (concussion) and WR Mike Williams (ankle) will return to action after full practices on Thursday and Friday. Herbert is a mid-range QB1.
Kirk Cousins (MIN) at DET: Vikings +2.5 | 53.5 O/U
- Cousins is having his least inspiring season with the Vikings (6.4 AY/A), but he at least has had success against HC Dan Campbell’s Lions with an 8.5 AY/A last year and a 7.3 AY/A in Week 3.
- The Lions are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (23.9 FPPG).
Cousins Update (Sat. 12/10): I’m optimistic that both C Garrett Bradbury (back) and LT Christian Darrisaw (concussion) will play this week. Cousins is a low-end QB1.
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) at DET: Jaguars +3.5 | 41.5 O/U
- Lawrence (ankle) suffered an in-game injury last week and had a mediocre performance (179-1-0 passing, 54.8% completion rate, 6.4 AY/A) — but he was able to play through the pain and was a top-12 fantasy quarterback in five of the six preceding games (7.3 AY/A, 25-121-3 rushing).
- The Titans are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (21.1 FPPG).
- His wide receivers haven’t done him many favors to this point.
Trevor Lawrence has had a league-high 25 passes dropped this season (PFF)
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 5, 2022
Lawrence Update (Sat. 12/10): Lawrence (questionable) missed practiced on Wednesday and Thursday but got in a limited session on Friday and is likely to play. The Titans will be without EDGE Denico Autry (knee), CB Kristian Fulton (groin) and LB David Long (hamstring) and maybe even DTs Jeffery Simmmons (ankle) and Teair Tart (ankle), both of whom are questionable. Lawrence is on the QB1/2 borderline.
Jared Goff (DET) vs. MIN: Lions -2.5 | 53.5 O/U
- This year Goff has exhibited notable splits at home (1,887-17-3 passing, 8.3 AY/A) and on the road (1,135-2-4 passing, 6.5 AY/A), and this week he’s playing his third consecutive game at Ford Field.
- The Vikings are No. 7 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (19.9 FPPG) and could be without CBs Cameron Dantzler (ankle, IR), Andrew Booth (knee, IR) and Akayleb Evans (concussion).
- Goff is one of our top Week 14 DFS value plays for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
- Lions HC Dan Campbell is 18-9 ATS as an underdog and 7-2 ATS in division (per Action Network).
Check out my Week 14 early betting preview on Lions vs. Vikings.
Goff Update (Sat. 12/10): RG Evan Brown (ankle) is out. For the Vikings FS Harrison Smith (neck) is questionable but likely to play. Goff is a low-end QB1.
Freedman’s Favorite Week 14 Running Backs
Josh Jacobs (LV) at LAR: Raiders -6 | 44.5 O/U
- After mediocre performances in Weeks 1-2 (154 yards, zero touchdowns), Jacobs has been the No. 1 fantasy back since Week 3 with 22.6 FPPG, 213-1177-10 rushing and 40-303-0 receiving on 48 targets in 10 games (per our Fantasy Football Leaders Report).
- Jacobs (quad/calf) is dealing with injuries, but he has played through them for the past two weeks, so I tentatively project him to start this week.
- The Raiders are growing favorites (-250 at Caesars) and could lean heavily on the ground game.
- The Rams are No. 1 in defensive rush EPA (-0.156) — but they are without DT A’Shawn Robinson (knee, IR) and could be without DT Aaron Donald (ankle), who missed last week.
- I could not have been more wrong.
Wherever Josh Jacobs is in your rankings, move him down.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) August 5, 2022
Austin Ekeler (LAC) vs. MIA: Chargers +3 | 52 O/U
- Ekeler underwhelmed in Weeks 1-3, but since Week 4 he has been an elite producer (No. 2 with 21.5 FPPG), and for the year he has 1,153 yards and 12 touchdowns from scrimmage in 12 games.
- Ekeler is the only back to lead the league in targets in any week this year — and he has done that twice (Weeks 6 & 12: 16 & 15 targets) — and for the year he’s No. 1 at the position and No. 9 overall with 104 targets (per our Weekly Target Report).
- Ekeler’s pass-catching ability gives him a consistently high weekly floor.
This is the weekly reminder that Austin Ekeler is pacing for 147 targets & 120 receptions.
Christian McCaffrey holds the single-season records with 142 & 116 (2019, 16 games).
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) December 6, 2022
Ekeler Update (Sat. 12/10): C Corey Linsley (concussion) is returning to action, which should help in the running game. Ekeler is a high-end RB1.
Derrick Henry (TEN) vs. JAX: Titans -3.5 | 41.5 O/U
- Henry has notably underwhelmed as a runner over the past month (2.8 yards per carry) — but his volume (75 carries), pass-catching production (9-146-0 receiving) and a random three-yard passing touchdown have helped sustain him.
- As a home favorite (-190 at PointsBet), Henry could have an even larger workload than usual.
- He has dominated the Jaguars ever since his career-altering end-of-season breakout in 2018.
Derrick Henry vs. Jags since his epic Week 14 breakout in 2018:
17-238-4 rushing, 47.8 fantasy points
17-44-1, 1-2-0 receiving, 11.1 FPts
19-159-2, 1-16-0, 28.0 FPts
25-84-0, 8.4 FPts
26-215-2, 2-7-0, 35.2 FPts
29-130-3, 31.0 FPts
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) December 6, 2022
Saquon Barkley (NYG) vs. PHI: Giants +7 | 45.5 O/U
- In 12 games, Barkley has 1,296 yards and eight touchdowns, thanks in large part to his position-best playing time (55.8 snaps per game, 82% snap rate, per our Snap Count Leaders Report).
- The Eagles are No. 28 in defensive rush SR (44.8%).
Barkley Update (Sat. 12/10): Barkley (neck) was technically limited on Thursday and Friday with a midweek injury, but he practiced without a non-contact jersey on Friday and should play through his questionable tag. Barkley is a mid-range RB1.
Dalvin Cook (MIN) at DET: Vikings +2.5 | 53.5 O/U
- Cook’s usage has declined for two straight seasons (22.3 carries, 3.9 targets per game in 2020; 19.2, 3.8 in 2021; 16.5, 3.5 this year) — but he’s still pacing for a fourth consecutive season of 1,300-plus yards from scrimmage.
- Against the Lions in Week 3, Cook had a strong 17-96-1 rushing.
- The Lions are No. 30 in defensive rush EPA (0.045) and rush SR (45.9%).
Cook Update (Sat. 12/10): I’m optimistic that both C Garrett Bradbury (back) and LT Christian Darrisaw (concussion) will play this week. Cook is a mid-range RB1.
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) at ARI: Patriots -1.5 | 44.5 O/U
- No. 2 RB Damien Harris (thigh) exited Week 12 early and could miss this week after neither practicing nor playing last week.
- In the seven games this year in which Harris has been out or played no more than 25% of the snaps, Stevenson has 706 yards and four touchdowns on 102 carries and 46 targets.
- In his 13 career games with 15-plus opportunities, Stevenson has averaged 16.6 FPPG (per FTN).
- A strong pass catcher for a big-bodied back, Stevenson is No. 1 on the Patriots with 67 targets and 56 receptions.
- The Cardinals are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against running backs (26.7%).
Rhamondre Stevenson 
Games w/ 50+ rushing yards: 7
Games w/ 50+ receiving yards: 4
Austin Ekeler 
Games w/ 50+ rushing yards: 3
Games w/ 50+ receiving yards: 4
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) December 5, 2022
Stevenson Update (Sat. 12/10): As of writing on Saturday, Harris seems unlikely to play after missing practice on Thursday and Friday. Stevenson is a high-end RB1.
Joe Mixon (CIN) vs. CLE: Bengals -6 | 47 O/U
- Mixon (concussion) exited Week 11 early with an injury and missed Weeks 12-13, but he practiced every day last week before drawing a questionable tag, so I he seems likely to clear the league’s protocol this week.
- Although he had just 59 scoreless yards against the Browns in Week 8, Mixon also had 17 opportunities (8 carries, 9 targets) in that game.
- As a large home favorite (-250 at DraftKings), Mixon could benefit from a run-heavy game script.
- The Browns are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.083).
Mixon Update (Sat. 12/10): Mixon practiced fully this week and didn’t appear on the final injury report, so he’ll play this week. Still, Mixon is only a low-end RB1 because of the possibility that he could share work with No. 2 RB Samaje Perine, who played well in his absence.
Tony Pollard (DAL) vs. HOU: Cowboys -17 | 44.5 O/U
- Even with the Week 11 return of so-called No. 1 RB Ezekiel Elliott, Pollard has 356 yards and four touchdowns on 45 carries and 11 targets over the past three games.
- Of all backs with 100-plus carries, Pollard is No. 1 with 2.7 yards after contact per attempt (per our Advanced RB Stats Report).
- The Cowboys could lean on the running game as massive home favorites (-1500 at FanDuel).
- The Texans are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (26.7 FPPG).
This was Tony Pollard's fifth touchdown this season of 30 or more yards. pic.twitter.com/82VQ4TX1cU
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) December 5, 2022
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) vs. HOU: Cowboys -17 | 44.5 O/U
- Despite losing significant work to RB Tony Pollard, Elliott has 233 yards and four touchdowns on 48 carries and five targets in three games since returning in Week 11 from a knee injury.
- Aside from a tough Week 1 matchup against the Buccaneers, Elliott has 14-plus opportunities in every game played this year.
- The Texans are No. 28 in defensive rush DVOA (5.0%).
Jamaal Williams (DET) vs. MIN: Lions -2.5 | 53.5 O/U
- Even though No. 1 RB D’Andre Swift returned from injuries in Week 8, Williams has 381 yards and eight touchdowns (plus a two-point conversion) on 96 carries and three targets over the past six games.
- Williams is No. 1 in the league with 14 touchdowns rushing overall and 24 carries inside the five-yard line (per our Red Zone Stats Report).
- No player in the league has more than Williams’ 50.8 fantasy points per 100 snaps (per our Snap Count Analysis Report).
Amon-Ra St. Brown down to the 1 –> Jamaal Williams touchdown happens basically every week and you can't convince me otherwise.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) December 4, 2022
Williams Update (Sat. 12/10): RG Evan Brown (ankle) is out. Williams is a low-end RB2.
Najee Harris (PIT) vs. BAL: Steelers -2.5 | 37 O/U
- Since the Week 9 bye, Harris has 67-310-1 rushing and 6-36-0 receiving on nine targets in four games despite exiting Week 12 early with an injury.
- Against the presumably Lamar Jackson-less Ravens, the Steelers could lean on the running game as home favorites (-155 at BetMGM).
Jeff Wilson (MIA) at LAC: Dolphins -3 | 52 O/U
- In a 33-17 loss last week, Wilson (17 snaps, 3 opportunities) played behind once-and-future teammate Raheem Mostert (28, 7) — but in his first three games with the team Wilson had 267 yards and three touchdowns on 39 carries, 11 targets and a 57% snap rate.
- The Chargers are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (25.1 FPPG).
Wilson Update (Sat. 12/10): LT Terron Armstead (toe, pectoral) will likely play through his questionable tag after practicing limitedly on Thursday and Friday. For the Chargers, both DT Sebastian Joseph-Day (knee) and S Derwin James (quadricep) are doubtful. Wilson is vulnerable to Mostert, and both are low-end RB2s.
D’Onta Foreman (CAR) at SEA: Panthers +3.5 | 43.5 O/U
- In his six games since former No. 1 RB Christian McCaffrey was traded to the 49ers, Foreman has a workmanlike 114-526-4 rushing and 4-25-0 receiving on eight targets.
- Foreman has a slate-best five-star matchup against the Seahawks, who are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (25.1 FPPG).
Cam Akers (LAR) vs. LV: Rams +6 | 44.5 O/U
- Last week, Akers had his best game of the year with 60 yards and two touchdowns on a season-high 72% snap rate and 18 opportunities (17 carries, 1 target).
- The Raiders are No. 6 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (23.7 FPPG).
- I know, it’s gross.
The Rams' offensive line is BAD, and the boxscores haven't been great, BUT Cam Akers is playing MUCH BETTER than you realize
Since Week 10 (min 15 rush, 51 RBs)
16th in yards after contact per attempt
(Weekly: 3.67, 3.07, 4.13, 2.35)
16th in MTF
10th in PFF's Elusive Rating
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) December 6, 2022
Freedman’s Favorite Week 14 Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson (MIN) at DET: Vikings +2.5 | 53.5 O/U
- Since moving from the slot to the perimeter in Week 3 of his 2020 rookie campaign, Jefferson has averaged 98.2 yards on 9.6 targets per game with an elite mark of 10.2 yards per target.
- Jefferson is No. 1 in the league with 11 receptions of 30-plus yards and five receptions of 40-plus yards (per our Advanced WR Stats Report).
- Jefferson is No. 1 among all NFL wide receivers with 4,293 yards receiving in his first three seasons.
- The Lions are No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.151).
Justin Jefferson: 19 contested catches
Leads the NFL 💪 pic.twitter.com/y5W05dpi32
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) December 5, 2022
Jefferson Update (Sat. 12/10): Lions CB Jeff Okudah (illness) is questionable, but I expect him to play after practicing on Friday. Even so, Jefferson is a high-end WR1.
Tyreek Hill (MIA) at LAC: Dolphins -3 | 52 O/U
- Hill is No. 1 in the league with 1,379 yards receiving, 96 receptions overall, 56 receptions of 10-plus yards and 22 receptions of 20-plus yards.
- No. 2 WR Jaylen Waddle (leg) suffered an injury in Week 13, and his status for Week 14 is unclear.
- Hill is a worthy consensus frontrunner for Offensive Player of the Year (+200, per our BettingPros player futures odds page).
Tyreek Hill is averaging 114.9 receiving yards per game.
If he can average 117 ypg over his last 5 games, he will break Calvin Johnson’s single season 1,964.
— Jeff Bell (@4WhomJBellTolls) December 5, 2022
Hill Update (Sat. 12/10): LT Terron Armstead (toe, pectoral) will likely play through his questionable tag after practicing limitedly on Thursday and Friday. For the Chargers, both CB Bryce Callahan (groin) and S Derwin James (quadricep) are doubtful. Hill is my No. 1 fantasy wide receiver.
Davante Adams (LV) at LAR: Raiders -6 | 44.5 O/U
- Since Week 10, Adams has 50-518-5 receiving on 50 targets in four games without No. 2 WR Hunter Renfrow (ribs, IR) and TE Darren Waller (hamstring, IR).
- Adams is No. 1 in the league with 135 targets and a 32.8% target share.
- Against the Rams last year (albeit on a different team), Adams had 8-104-0 receiving on nine targets.
- Even with No. 1 CB Jalen Ramsey, the Rams are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (29.3%).
A.J. Brown (PHI) at NYG: Eagles -7 | 45.5 O/U
- The path to production is not always smooth, but Brown is pacing to hit career-high marks in targets (96), yards (950) and touchdowns (9), given his current numbers.
- The Giants could be without No. 1 CB Adoree’ Jackson (knee), who exited Week 11 early and missed Weeks 12-13.
A.J. Brown just got the Titans GM fired. Ultimate revenge.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) December 6, 2022
Brown Update (Sat. 12/10): Jackson is out. Brown is a mid-range WR1.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) vs. MIN: Lions -2.5 | 53.5 O/U
- Since returning in Week 8 from a head injury, St. Brown has 48-555-3 receiving on 60 targets with 4-15-0 rushing, and in his nine games with a snap rate of at least 50% he has 891 yards and six touchdowns on 93 targets and six carries.
- The Vikings are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (32.2 FPPG).
St. Brown Update (Sat. 12/10): WR Kalif Raymond (illness) is questionable, as is Vikings FS Harrison Smith (neck). St. Brown is a high-end WR1.
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) vs. HOU: Cowboys -17 | 44.5 O/U
- Lamb started the season slowly with 104 scoreless yards on nine receptions and one carry in Weeks 1-2, but he has 60-824-6 receiving and 8-40-0 rushing in 10 games since then, and for the year he has a dominant 111 targets.
- The Texans could be without No. 1 CB Derek Stingley (hamstring), who has missed the past three weeks.
- The Cowboys have a week-high 31-point implied total in our Week 14 DFS cheat sheet.
CAN’T STOP CEEDEE LAMB
— PFF (@PFF) December 5, 2022
Lamb Update (Sat. 12/10): Stingley is out. Lamb is a solid WR1.
Tee Higgins (CIN) vs. CLE: Bengals -6 | 47 O/U
- Higgins had just five targets in No. 1 WR Ja’Marr Chase’s return from injury last week, but he’s an explosive playmaker (10.0 yards per target since last year), and he could see extra targets without No. 1 TE Hayden Hurst (calf, doubtful).
- The Browns are No. 27 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (28.4%).
Higgins Update (Sat. 12/10): Hurst is out. Higgins is a low-end WR1.
D.K. Metcalf (SEA) vs. CAR: Seahawks -3.5 | 43.5 O/U
- Despite exiting Week 7 early with what seemed to be a serious knee injury, Metcalf somehow suited up for Week 8 and has 36-380-3 receiving on 48 targets in five games since then.
- The Panthers are without No. 1 CB Donte Jackson (Achilles, IR).
Geno Smith. Clutch.
DK Metcalf. Clutch.
Seahawks. Clutch. pic.twitter.com/kfAnlBGDYo
— Sami Jarjour (@SamiOnTap) December 5, 2022
Metcalf Update (Sat. 12/10): Metcalf (hip, questionable) was limited on Thursday and missed Friday, but HC Pete Carroll has said that Metcalf will be “ready to go” (per Corbin Smith).
Check out my Week 14 early betting preview on Seahawks vs. Panthers.
Keenan Allen (LAC) vs. MIA: Chargers +3 | 52 O/U
- Since returning in Week 11 from a hamstring injury, Allen has 16-231-2 receiving on 29 targets in three games.
- No. 2 WR Mike Williams (ankle) has missed the past two weeks and is uncertain for Week 14.
- The Dolphins are without Nos. 2-3 CBs Byron Jones (ankle, PUP) and Nik Needham (Achilles, IR).
Allen Update (Sat. 12/10): Williams will return to action after full practices on Thursday and Friday, so Allen gets a slight downgrade in my rankings, but he’s still on the WR1/2 borderline.
Christian Kirk (JAX) at TEN: Jaguars +3.5 | 41.5 O/U
- I’m not sure if Kirk is actually good — but he might be, given that he has 27-331-3 receiving on 38 targets over the past month and 62-829-7 on 99 in 12 games.
- I’m totally sure that the Titans are bad, as they rank No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (34.9 FPPG).
Kirk Update (Sat. 12/10): The Titans are without CB Kristian Fulton (groin). Kirk is a solid WR2.
Garrett Wilson (NYJ) at BUF: Jets +9.5 | 44 O/U
- Wilson has dramatic splits this year without benched QB Zach Wilson, averaging just 6.5 FPPG with him but 17.3 on 11.4 targets in five games without him (per RotoViz).
- Against the Bills in Week 9, Wilson had 8-92-0 rushing on nine targets — and that was with Zach Wilson at quarterback.
- The Bills are No. 27 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (18.1%).
Week 13 air yardage leaders at WR
231 – Garrett Wilson
187 – Davante Adams
184 – Keenan Allen
176 – Drake London
175 – Tyreek Hill
173 – Nico Collins
162 – AJ Brown
139 – Marquez Valdes-Scantling
138 – Stefon Diggs
137 – Justin Jefferson
134 – Darius Slayton
131 – Terry McLaurin
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 5, 2022
D.J. Moore (CAR) at SEA: Panthers +3.5 | 43.5 O/U
- With QB Sam Darnold making his first start, Moore had 4-103-1 receiving on six targets in Week 12, and Darnold should have a better grasp of the offense out of the Week 13 bye.
- In his 12 games with Darnold last year, Moore averaged a near-elite 9.8 targets, which he leveraged into 70.7 yards per game.
- The Seahawks are No. 26 in dropback EPA (0.107).
Jakobi Meyers (NE) at ARI: Patriots -1.5 | 44.5 O/U
- Meyers has a nonexistent 10-136-0 receiving on 15 targets in three games since the Week 10 bye, but he’s still No. 1 on the Patriots in targets (67) and yards receiving (593).
- The Cardinals are No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (52.7%) and could be without No. 1 CB Byron Murphy (back), who sat out Weeks 10-12 before the Week 13 bye.
- Meyers (shoulder) was in and out of Week 13 with an injury, but he has three extra days off of Thursday Night Football to recover, so I tentatively project him to play.
Meyers Update (Sat. 12/10): As of writing on Saturday, Meyers (concussion) has missed back-to-back injuries with a reported head injury. I’m now skeptical he plays on Monday Night Football.
Jerry Jeudy (DEN) vs. KC: Broncos +9 | 43 O/U
- Jeudy returned to action last week after suffering an ankle injury in Week 10, and although he was limited to 20 snaps he had an efficient 4-65-0 receiving on four targets.
- He could be without WR Courtland Sutton (hamstring), who exited Week 13 early with an injury.
- The Chiefs are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (31.4 FPPG).
Welcome back, @jerryjeudy!
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/70pODsj9w2
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) December 4, 2022
Jeudy Update (Sat. 12/10): Sutton is out. Jeudy is on the WR2/3 borderline.
I’m taking over 10.0 fantasy points on Jeudy in the Week 14 No House Advantage Over/Under Challenge.
Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE) at CIN: Browns +6 | 47 O/U
- People-Jones led the Browns with 44 yards receiving in QB Deshaun Watson’s Week 13 debut — as sad as that mark is — and he’s a big-play producer with 10.5 yards per target for his career … and there’s always a chance that he’ll score on a punt return.
- The Bengals are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (31.2%) and are without No. 1 CB Chidobe Awuzie (knee, IR).
Treylon Burks (TEN) vs. JAX: Titans -3.5 | 41.5 O/U
- Burks (concussion) exited last week early due to an injury he suffered while making a 25-yard touchdown reception, so he’s uncertain for Week 14, but he has a chance to clear the league’s protocol in time to play.
- In his three full games since returning in Week 10 from a toe injury, Burks is No. 1 on the team with 20 targets, 14 receptions, 205 yards and a 19% target share per snap.
- The Jaguars are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA (28.0%).
Holy Crap. Titans WR Treylon Burks just made an INSANE catch in the end zone and got totally crushed by two Eagles defenders, which drew a flag.
He's down in the end zone getting medical attention.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 4, 2022
Burks Update (Sat. 12/10): Burks (concussion) is out. In his absence, WR Robert Woods could see more targets … I guess.
Zay Jones (JAX) at TEN: Jaguars +3.5 | 41.5 O/U
- Since returning in Week 5 from an ankle injury, Jones — with the exception of touchdowns (0 vs. 4) — has almost been a co-No. 1 wide receiver with Christian Kirk based on snap rate (92% vs. 88%), targets (62 vs. 63), receptions (41 vs. 42) and yards receiving (405 vs. 502).
- The Titans are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (29.0%) and could be without CBs Caleb Farley (back, IR), Kristian Fulton (groin) and Elijah Molden (groin).
Jones Update (Sat. 12/10): Jones (chest, questionable) should play after practicing every day this week. Fulton is out, as are Farley and Molden (IR). Jones is an upside WR3.
Van Jefferson (LAR) vs. LV: Rams +6 | 44.5 O/U
- Nos. 1-2 WRs Cooper Kupp (ankle, IR) and Allen Robinson (foot, IR) are out, and in their absence Jefferson has led the Rams with a 94% snap rate and 20.4% target share.
- Relatedly, the universe is a barren space, and the few pockets of life are infinitesimally tiny.
- The Raiders are No. 31 in defensive dropback EPA (0.185) and dropback SR (52.0%).
Mack Hollins (LV) at LAR: Raiders -6 | 44.5 O/U
- Since Week 10, Hollins has a notable 17-168-1 receiving on an intriguing 29 targets in four games.
- The Rams are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (29.9%) and could be without No. 2 CB Troy Hill (groin), who missed last week.
Demarcus Robinson (BAL) at PIT: Ravens +2.5 | 37 O/U
- With QB Tyler Huntley serving as a mid-game fill-in for injured starter Lamar Jackson (knee), Robinson led the Ravens in targets (8) and receptions (7).
- The Steelers are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (32.9 FPPG) and are without CBs Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring, IR) and William Jackson (back, IR).
Robinson Update (Sat. 12/10): Jackson is doubtful, so Huntley is likely to start at quarterback for the Ravens. Robinson is a play-and-pray upside WR4/flex.
Trent Sherfield (MIA) at LAC: Dolphins -3 | 52 O/U
- Sherfield is locked in as the team’s No. 3 wide receiver with a 62% snap rate since his first start in Week 7, and although he has just 21 targets since then he has produced with his opportunities (12.7 yards per target).
- Last week, he turned the Dolphins’ first offensive play into a 75-yard catch-and-run touchdown reception.
- Without CB J.C. Jackson (knee, IR), the Chargers are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against supplementary wide receivers (37.0%).
A FIRST PLAY TD FOR THE DOLPHINS 🐬
Trent Sherfield first TD (+3000) ✅pic.twitter.com/H7DVNvsqhg
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) December 4, 2022
Freedman’s Favorite Week 14 Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (KC) at DEN: Chiefs -9 | 43 O/U
- Kelce is the No. 1 tight end with 17.3 FPPG, well ahead of Mark Andrews at No. 2 (11.5): The edge Kelce provides at the position is monstrous.
- Kelce is No. 1 at the position with 27 red-zone targets, 38 receptions of 10-plus yards and 15 receptions of 20-plus yards (per our Advanced TE Stats Report).
Mark Andrews (BAL) at PIT: Ravens +2.5 | 37 O/U
- Andrews is No. 1 at the position with a 25.1% target share.
- QB Lamar Jackson (knee) seems likely to miss Week 14, in his five Jackson-less games last year Andrews averaged 101.6 yards, 8.0 receptions and 0.6 touchdowns on 11 targets.
Tyler Huntley has played all or most of six games with Mark Andrews.
* 4-53-0 (yesterday)
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 5, 2022
Andrews Update (Sat. 12/10): Jackson is doubtful, so Huntley is likely to start at quarterback for the Ravens. Andrews is my No. 2 fantasy tight end.
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) at DET: Vikings +2.5 | 53.5 O/U
- Since joining the Vikings in Week 9, Hockenson has been No. 2 on the team in targets (40) and receptions (30), and he barely trails WR Adam Thielen (229) at No. 3 in yards receiving (225).
- The Lions are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (11.7 FPPG).
- “How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! What is a man, if his chief good and market of his time be but to sleep and feed? A beast, no more. … Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!”
Gerald Everett (LAC) vs. MIA: Chargers +3 | 52 O/U
- Everett has 9-98-0 receiving on 10 targets with a two-point conversion over the past two weeks without No. 2 WR Mike Williams (ankle), who is uncertain for Week 14.
- The Dolphins are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (12.3 FPPG).
Everett Update (Sat. 12/10): Williams will return to action after full practices on Thursday and Friday, so Everett gets a slight downgrade in my rankings, but he’s still a TE1.
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) vs. JAX: Titans -3.5 | 41.5 O/U
- Blessed with an elite combination of size (6’3″ and 238 pounds) and speed (4.52-second 40-yard dash), Okonkwo as a rookie has flashed electric playmaking ability (11.0 yards per target), and among all qualified tight ends he’s No. 1 in the league with 2.75 yards per route (per PFF).
- The Jaguars are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (34.1%).
There are currently 26 players with at least 3 receptions of 40+ yards in the NFL.
25 are WRs, 1 is a TE:
— Wes on Broadway (@TitansStats) December 5, 2022
Okonkwo Update (Sat. 12/10): No. 1 WR Treylon Burks (concussion) is out, so Okonkwo could see extra targets. My bold call for the week is that Okonkwo will finish as the No. 1 fantasy tight end.
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