The 2022 fantasy football season is winding down. It’s been a long season full of surprising headlines and unfortunate injuries. However, it’s critical for fantasy players to learn from the season’s events so they can better prepare for next season.
In the spirit of the new year, let’s take a look at seven fantasy football resolutions.
All stats are from half-point PPR scoring.
7 Fantasy Football New Year’s Resolutions (2022)
1. Grab a Superstar, or Wait on a Quarterback
The top two fantasy quarterbacks heading into Week 17 are Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. They were the first two quarterbacks drafted in almost every league this year. Yet, quarterbacks, including Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson, got pushed into the same tier. However, neither has been a top-10 quarterback this season. Instead, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, and Justin Fields round out the top six quarterbacks heading into Week 17. All four were either late-round picks or undrafted. Fantasy analysis half harped on it for years; you can wait to get a quarterback.
2. Don’t Assume Injuries
All summer long, fantasy players debated whether Jonathan Taylor or Christian McCaffrey should be the first overall pick. The argument for McCaffrey was that he has the most upside of any running back in fantasy football but has missed 70% of the games over the past two years. With Taylor, fantasy players felt confident they would get a top-three player out of him with little downside. Instead, McCaffrey is the RB4, while Taylor will end up missing six games this season with ankle injuries. It’s ironic, if not frustrating, to see how their seasons have turned out.
3. I Will NOT Draft D’Andre Swift Again
Swift has been a popular breakout candidate for the past two years. However, injuries and Dan Campbell have kept that from happening. Swift has only missed three games this season but has been limited when active. The star running back totaled more than eight rushing attempts in only two games this season, one of which was in Week 1. More importantly, he has scored fewer than 10 fantasy points in half of the games this season. Furthermore, Swift has played under 56% of the snaps in every game since Week 1. Meanwhile, Campbell has turned the Detroit backfield into a three-headed attack of Swift, Jamaal Williams, and Justin Jackson.
4. Age is Just a Number
Fantasy players who play dynasty fantasy football know the magic age for running back is 26 years old. At that age, running backs tend to see their production decline. However, that hasn’t been the case this season. Of the top 18 running backs entering Week 17, 12 are 26 or older, including three of the top four guys. Do not let the future impact your thought process for redraft leagues. If you had drafted Derrick Henry in round one, Nick Chubb in the second, and Joe Mixon in the third round, you would have three top-12 running backs on your roster. More importantly, you would likely end up being the league champion.
5. Don’t Be Afraid of Rookies
Yes, I just told you not to put the veteran out to pasture just yet. This season we have three rookie running backs in the top 24 on a points-per-game basis, with Breece Hall as the RB8, Kenneth Walker as the RB18 and Dameon Pierce as the RB21. If you consider Travis Etienne a rookie after missing all last season, you have four running backs in the top 24. Meanwhile, six rookies are currently in the top 48 wide receivers in total points scored heading into Week 17. The 2022 rookie class was very productive but not as elite as the 2021 class, which produced three top-24 wide receivers and a top-four running back. Transitioning from college to the NFL has become much easier in the past few years.
6. A Wide Receiver is the New 1.01 & 1.02
There was a debate in the offseason about whether Cooper Kupp or Justin Jefferson was the WR1. I am arguably the biggest Kupp supporter in fantasy football, but Jefferson should be the first wide receiver drafted and the 1.01 pick next season. His 19.8 fantasy point per game average is the highest among all non-quarterbacks this season, 1.6 ahead of Kupp and at least 1.8 more than any other wide receiver. However, there is an argument for Kupp to be the 1.02 pick. He averaged 20.3 fantasy points per game this season before getting hurt, an average higher than Jefferson’s. Furthermore, he hasn’t played since Week 10. Yet, Kupp is the 35th-highest-scoring flex player heading into Week 17, ahead of top-20 wide receivers, including Brandon Aiyuk.
7. Travis Kelce is Worth Every Penny
Last year, Kelce wasn’t the TE1 for the first time since 2017. Instead, that title went to Mark Andrews. Fantasy players who wanted to spend an early pick on a tight end had to decide between the two superstars. However, anyone who picked Andrews is kicking themselves. He has regressed this year, partly because of injuries, averaging 10 fantasy points per game, making him the TE4 heading into Week 17. Meanwhile, Kelce has been a weekly cheat code for fantasy players, averaging 16.4 fantasy points per game, 5.4 more than the next closest tight end, George Kittle. As long as he is healthy and has Mahomes as his quarterback, Kelce is the TE1 and worthy of a first-round pick in 2023.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
