In addition to FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR), the Zeile Consensus Projections are an essential tool for your draft preparation. The difference between the ECR and Zeile is that Zeile is based on projected stats from several reputable sources. Thus, there’s a bit more meat behind the rankings, though the ECR is built on far more sources.
Comparing the Zeile projections to ADP is a great way to identify targets and flag players who are being over-drafted. Here are some hitters and pitchers that fall into both camps. For the hitters, we limited the scope to those with an ADP or projected rank of less than 150. For the pitchers, we drew the line at 125 since they don’t get drafted as deep.
- Fitz’s Positional Primers
- Justin Mason’s Draft Day Cheat Sheet
- Players the Experts Draft
- Latest Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft
Zeile Projections vs. ADP: Who Should You Target and Avoid?
First, here are the hitters that the Zeile projections like more than the average fantasy manager by at least one round, divided into mid-draft targets and late-draft targets:
Pitchers the Projections like better than ADP
| Player | Pitcher Projection | ADP | Variance |
| Bailey Ober (SP – MIN) | 116 | 162 | +46 |
| Eric Lauer (SP – MIN) | 106 | 137 | +31 |
| Kyle Finnegan (RP – WSH) | 96 | 125 | +29 |
| Roansy Contreras (SP – PIT) | 109 | 135 | +26 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez (SP – DET) | 122 | 145 | +23 |
| Seranthony Dominguez (RP – PHI) | 87 | 105 | +18 |
| Dylan Floro (RP – MIA) | 101 | 116 | +15 |
| Taijuan Walker (SP – PHI) | 114 | 129 | +15 |
| Jameson Taillon (SP – CHC) | 93 | 107 | +14 |
| Trevor Rogers (SP – MIA) | 98 | 112 | +14 |
| Marcus Stroman (SP – CHC) | 97 | 110 | +13 |
| Sonny Gray (SP – MIN) | 80 | 92 | +12 |
Regarding the starters, Ober and Rodriguez are coming off injury-plagued years but could be solid back-of-the-fantasy-rotation options. The projections like Contreras’ potential and Lauer, Walker, and Taillon seem unappreciated by drafters. Zeile also likes Rogers to rebound from his disastrous 2022 and more innings from Stroman and Gray, who are pretty good when healthy.
As for the relievers, Finnegan should be the closer to start the season in Washington, while Floro should at least be part of a committee. The Phillies added Craig Kimbrel (RP – PHI) and Gregory Soto (RP – PHI) to their pen this off-season, but Dominguez was terrific last year. It’s easy to understand the trepidation, though, as it’s hard to predict who will lead Philly in saves next year.
Here are the pitchers on whom the projections aren’t as high:
Pitchers the Projections like less than ADP
| Player | Pitcher Projection | ADP | Variance |
| Kendall Graveman (RP – CWS) | 133 | 96 | -37 |
| Craig Kimbrel (RP – PHI) | 123 | 89 | -34 |
| Evan Phillips (RP – LAD) | 115 | 86 | -29 |
| Corey Kluber (SP – BOS) | 151 | 122 | -29 |
| Rafael Montero (RP – HOU) | 152 | 124 | -28 |
| Noah Syndergaard (SP – LAD) | 130 | 103 | -27 |
| Adam Wainwright (SP – STL) | 135 | 108 | -27 |
| Aroldis Chapman (RP – KC) | 145 | 118 | -27 |
| Tony Gonsolin (SP – LAD) | 74 | 51 | -23 |
| Alex Lange (RP – DET) | 121 | 101 | -20 |
| Ross Stripling (SP, RP – SF) | 124 | 106 | -18 |
| Hunter Brown (SP, RP – HOU) | 104 | 87 | -17 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. (SP – HOU) | 88 | 76 | -12 |
Beginning this time with the relievers, Graveman and Montero aren’t closers, though Graveman has a better shot at saves with Liam Hendriks (RP – CWS) recovering from non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Kimbrel, Phillips, Lange, and Chapman have shots to close, but none are assured and face competition from teammates for save opportunities.
As for the starters, Zeile sees further regression for the soon-to-be 37-year-old Kluber and the 41-year-old Wainwright. The projections also don’t believe Gonsolin or Stripling can repeat their 2022s and that year two post-TJ surgery for Syndergaard won’t be much different than year one. As for the two Astros, Brown is a rookie with tremendous upside, but much like the young hitters mentioned above, he has little MLB experience and could have innings limitations. McCullers’ variance to ADP isn’t that great, and he typically pitches well when he’s healthy. Unfortunately, he only threw 63 innings last season, including the post-season, and the Astros will likely opt to be careful with him.
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