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FFPC Players To Avoid (Fantasy Football 2023)

FFPC Players To Avoid (Fantasy Football 2023)

No matter what type of fantasy football you’re after, FFPC has a variety of drafts and contests available, including the FantasyPros Championship, with a top prize of $1,000,000. FFPC scoring is full PPR with a tight end premium of an extra 0.5 PPR points. Drafts have been open since the beginning of February, and there are players who look like they’re being potentially overvalued already.

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FFPC Players To Avoid (Fantasy Football 2023)

Jordan Love (QB – GB) – ADP 139.0

Very little is being said about how inexperienced Jordan Love is after three years riding the bench behind Aaron Rodgers. Love has fewer pass attempts in his three years than Trey Lance has managed in his two very broken years, with Lance on 102 pass attempts to Love’s 83. Much is made of Lance’s lack of game time and chances to develop, but Love is seemingly given a free pass because he sat behind Aaron Rodgers.

Love played zero snaps in his rookie season, and with preseason canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it wasn’t until the 2021 preseason that he made his debut. Since then, Love has averaged a 60% completion rate on his limited action, throwing three touchdowns and three interceptions. Love’s 3.5% Big Time Throw Rate over the last two years would have ranked the equivalent of QB37 in 2022, which makes it hard to envision his upside.

It’s fair to say that Love might do better in an offense game planned for his strengths, but it’s also fair to say we have no idea what those strengths are and how Love might fare. The Packers are in a semi-rebuild with plenty of work to do on both sides of the ball, and it’s entirely possible that they might be fine with the team doing poorly this year so that they can take a quarterback in the 2024 draft. Love should only be considered on three quarterback builds.

 

 

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC) – ADP 201.5

It wouldn’t be controversial to suggest the Chiefs lost all faith in Clyde Edwards-Helaire in 2022, with the former first-round pick seeing his snaps decline for seven straight weeks until his season-ending knee injury. At that point, the Chiefs turned the ball over to Isiah Pacheco, who was drafted 219 picks later than Edwards-Helaire was, and the team seems far happier with Pacheco out of the two. Edwards-Helaire is currently waiting to hear if the team will pick up his fifth-year option, but that’s no certainty, and there is talk the Chiefs may also bring back Jerick McKinnon or draft a running back.

The Chiefs have also lost star left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., who occasionally struggled in pass protection, but was an excellent run blocker. The alarm bells might not be sounding at their loudest right now, but after the draft, the picture could be very different. Edwards-Helaire’s average draft position (ADP) might be very low at the moment, but the mental gymnastics you have to do to convince yourself he could give your roster boom weeks is pretty lengthy.

Jelani Woods (TE – IND) – ADP 179.6

There remains a contingency of people who have hope that the Jelani Woods breakout might be incoming after a rookie season with some big flashes. Woods finished as a top-five tight end on two occasions with a two-touchdown performance in Week 3 and then an eight-catch 98-yard haul in Week 12. Unfortunately for Woods, outside of those two games, Woods had only 15 catches across the rest of the season, with the Colts spiraling and utilizing a three tight end room with Woods, Mo Alie-Cox and Kylen Granson.

The Colts might be a better offense in 2022, but with all three tight ends brought back for 2023, it seems unlikely that Woods can command a consistent volume of targets, and occasional spike weeks might be the very best fantasy managers could hope for. In tight end premium volume is rewarded, and it feels better to target tight ends in this range with a clearer path to volume.

Draft Wizard

Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN) – ADP 44.1

The Minnesota Vikings continue to seem nonplussed about the idea of Dalvin Cook returning in 2023. Cook was the RB10 in PPR formats last year and has recently undergone shoulder surgery for an issue that has plagued him for a couple of years, with the hope he can be healthier in 2023. Still, at 28 years old, when the season is due to begin, the best years of his career are likely behind him. The Vikings can move on from Cook relatively easily and save $8 million against the cap. With Alexander Mattison re-signed already, the Vikings seem ready to move on. If Cook is cut or traded, it becomes very difficult to imagine a team he lands on where he’s given the kind of work-horse opportunities we’d like for a running back drafted in the early fourth round.

Kenneth Gainwell (RB – PHI) – ADP 123.2

The Eagles moved on from Miles Sanders after his rookie contract expired, leaving behind a lot of opportunities for whichever running backs are there in 2023. Rashaad Penny was signed during free agency and profiles better than Kenneth Gainwell as a between-the-tackles runner. Gainwell is a smaller back, and the Eagles have preferred using him in the passing game, with only 3.4 rush attempts per game over his career. The Eagles continue to be linked with Bijan Robinson and other running backs in the draft, and as long as their allowed to run their version of the QB sneak that was so effective in 2022, running backs will have limited goal-line opportunities.

George Pickens (WR – PIT) – ADP 91.6

The Steelers recently traded for Allen Robinson to bolster their receiving room, which isn’t likely the kind of move that kills George Pickens’ fantasy value, but it doesn’t help it either. Pickens finished his rookie season as the WR57 in PPR points per game and had eight games with less than 7.5 PPR points. Pickens averaged 4.9 targets per game, yet from Week 7 onwards never had more than five catches in a game. The big plays are fantastic, but should we really be pursuing them if big plays aren’t giving us big points? The Steelers will likely benefit from positive touchdown regression this year, but Pickens is going ahead of several rookie receivers who could become immediate WR1s after the draft.

Irv Smith (TE – CIN) – ADP 155.1

When the Bengals signed Irv Smith in free agency, it gave a ray of hope to the once large community of truthers, but it feels like that light could fade quickly enough. The Bengals continue to be linked to taking a tight end early in this year’s draft, and such a pick would be disastrous for Smith’s fantasy output. Smith has never been able to earn targets at a high rate, with TJ Hockenson proving that Kirk Cousins would target the position strongly if the right person were on the field after he arrived via trade.

The Bengals have a reputation for boosting the value of tight ends, with Hayden Hurst and Cj Uzomah going on to sign nice contracts after leaving the Joe Burrow offense over the last two years. The sticking point is that the Bengals as an offense don’t focus on the position heavily because of their elite wide receivers and strong running back room. In 2022 Burrow targeted tight ends 94 times, which was the ninth-fewest amount of any team in the league. Hurst averaged 7.1 PPR points in games without a touchdown and had only two touchdowns all season. Two-thirds of Hurst’s games resulted in single-digit fantasy returns, and it requires quite the leap to imagine Irv Smith doing any better than that.

2023 Fantasy Football Best Ball Draft Advice

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