With the redraft season beginning, we must research each player’s information and analyze their average draft position (ADP) to determine if they are worthy of their position within our overall board. One of the more significant problems that fantasy football managers have when drafting is overvaluing rookies. Especially when drafting far out from the season with the NFL draft close in the rearview mirror, it’s the “Shiny New Toy” fallacy. This is when someone receives a new item and automatically gives it more value than an older item. As future 2023 fantasy football champions, we must recognize the players who can sink our dreams. This article will identify four players who fit into the “Shiny New Toy” fallacy and help you to steer clear of them at their ADP.

All ADPs are from PPR Scoring systems

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Early Overvalued Rookies (2023 Fantasy Football)

Here are some rookies that are being overvalued early in the fantasy football draft season.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA) | ADP 65

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) is exceptionally talented as a wide receiver. However, his landing spot can damper his value for 2023. He will begin the season starting alongside DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and the pair will likely edge him out of any two wide receiver sets. If this is the case, drafting JSN at 65th overall is ludicrous and can sink your ship before the season starts. With the Seattle Seahawks being a run-first team and Pete Carroll asking Geno Smith to do “just enough” to win games, a heavy workload for JSN could be wishful thinking. Also at a similar ADP as Smith-Njigba are players such as Trevor Lawrence, Kyle Pitts, and Treylon Burks, all of whom sit as their respective teams’ QB1, TE1, and WR1.

Zay Flowers (WR – BAL) | ADP 91

Something new we can say about the Baltimore Ravens in 2023 is that their wide receiver room is now crowded with talent. The Ravens added Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor in free agency, Rashod Bateman is returning from injury, and they drafted Zay Flowers. Please make no mistake about it; Zay Flowers is a talented wide receiver who can be used as a moveable weapon within this new offense to create separation and big plays. The issue with Flowers is the crowded room. The Ravens’ offense is also full of pass-catching options in their tight-end room, with Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. We also have a solid running game in J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Lamar Jackson. All of this will chip away at a high target share for Zay Flowers.

With Todd Monken’s new offensive scheme and his tendency to lean towards a neutral pass script, the Ravens should pass more this year. However, Flowers will need Lady Luck to shine on him as he develops, setting up his routes correctly to outplay the WR4 role that is currently reflected in his ADP. Is Zay Flowers talented and worth a dart throw? Yes, just not with an ADP of 91 when I can draft Anthony Richardson, James Cook, AJ Dillon, or Antonio Gibson within that same range.

Kendre Miller (RB – NO) | ADP 137

Kendre Miller is a popular rookie within fantasy circles and his name will appear in many sleeper articles. However, I would advise caution when targeting this New Orleans running back. The first thing to note is his MCL injury late in the year at TCU, which forced him to not work out at the NFL Combine or on his Pro Day.

The next big issue is the depth chart at running back in the Big Easy. The Saints still have Alvin Kamara and just signed Jamaal Williams. Yes, Kamara is starting to trend in the wrong direction and has an impending case for suspension. Let’s suppose the rumors are true and he is suspended for around six games. In that case, Kamara will return to eat into the running back production in New Orleans. Next, we look into the signing of Jamaal Williams. Although he is 28, age plays less of a factor in redraft and Williams was brought in to become the goal line back. He will steal the high-value touches from Kendre Miller, and Miller will need to learn to lower his shoulder and take what is given to him more often. The Saints will likely lean on either veteran to handle the high-value rushing attempts, severely limiting Kendre Miller’s upside. With his ADP sitting at 137, you could draft players like Jonathan Mingo, Tank Bigsby, or even Devin Singletary (ADP 154) instead, all of whom will walk into an easy path for a more prominent role on their respective teams.

C.J. Stroud (RB – NO) | ADP 168

If you follow the late-round quarterback model, C.J. Stroud will be staring you in the face at the end of your drafts. His position may look enticing since the Houston Texans are projected to play from behind in most games this season, however I implore you to look elsewhere.

One of the biggest knocks on Stroud’s game is his struggles with pressure in the pocket. He earned a 43.9 Pressure Grade per PFF last season, and this year will be trial-by-fire as he is no longer surrounded by the stellar offense he had at Ohio State. At his ADP, you could land Brock Purdy or Trey Lance and have access to a better offense, a stronger scheme, and an elevated level of playmakers around your quarterback.

All four of the players discussed above have talent and upside within their game. However, they will likely all be better for dynasty leagues or next year in redraft than they will as redraft targets in 2023.

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