Let’s dive into fantasy football sleepers! I selected the start of Round 8 as my cut-off for sleepers because I’ve often found that’s the range in the draft when we start to see breakout RBs emerge.
The main goal is that one or several of them beat their average draft positions (ADP) by a significant margin, akin to performances from Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyler Allgeier, Dameon Pierce, Jerick McKinnon, Isiah Pacheco, D’Onta Foreman, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, Garrett Wilson, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones and Tyler Conklin last season.
Be prepared to find hidden talents across all teams, including those in unexpected situations like the Arizona Cardinals. My only requirement is that these players possess ADPs outside the top-84 players (in some capacity because this can vary by draft platform).
Get ready to make strategic moves and uncover the next breakout stars! Here are my top fantasy football sleepers for all NFL teams. Below we’ll offer a free look at a few of these names.
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers
Zay Flowers spent four seasons at Boston College simply dominating as the team’s best wide receiver. He posted a career 33% dominator rating — highest in the draft class. His senior year was truly special as the 5-foot-9, 182-pound wideout racked up 78 receptions for 1,077 yards and 12 receiving TDs. Per Sports Info Solution, Flowers finished 3rd in the class in unique routes run, 6th in target share (30%) and third in deep route percentage (49%). With first-round draft capital and projected inside/slot usage that will work well with QB Lamar Jackson…don’t count out Flowers emerging as Baltimore’s WR1. The best ability is availability… which has not been the case for either Odell Beckham Jr. or Rashod Bateman. Targeting highly drafted rookie WRs tends to be a +EV strategy anyway. 26% of 1st round WRs drafted since 2013 have finished as top-24 options. 32% inside the top-36. Rookie WRs ADPs often do not fully capture the upside they possess. Draft them all day every day.
Jonathan Mingo, the Carolina Panthers’ second-round pick from Ole Miss, is a compelling choice to lead all rookies in receiving yards in 2023, offering enticing +1200 odds, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Mingo possesses an impressive size/speed combination, standing at 6-foot-2, 220 pounds, and boasting 4.46 speed. This physical profile, coupled with his ability to adjust to balls downfield and break tackles, makes him an appealing option for big receiving totals. Mingo’s downfield prowess should mesh well with his rookie quarterback, Bryce Young. In 2022, a notable 31% of his targets came on throws of 20-plus yards downfield, trailing only Marvin Mims in the class (38%). Remarkably, Mingo earned a superb 99.9 PFF grade when targeted downfield, equivalent to his draft classmates Jalin Hyatt and Jordan Addison. Furthermore, he excelled in generating yardage after the catch, ranking 10th in the FBS among wide receivers with at least 80 targets in yards after the catch per reception (7.5). Although Mingo had a breakout season at Ole Miss, amassing 51 catches for 861 receiving yards and five touchdowns, his trajectory was impacted by an injury in 2021. Nonetheless, he showcased his potential by averaging over 100 receiving yards per game in the first three games of the season before being sidelined. The Panthers receiving corps features two veterans in Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark Jr., but Mingo has a strong chance to emerge as the team’s primary wide receiver in his rookie year. With his draft capital, an immediate opportunity for playing time, and ability to generate significant yardage both after the catch and downfield, Mingo presents a savvy bet to lead all rookies in receiving yards. It’s worth noting that Panthers General Manager Scott Fitterer previously drafted a wide receiver from Ole Miss in the second round, DK Metcalf, back in 2019. In his first year, Metcalf finished third among rookies in receiving yards, while leading in targets and routes run. This precedent adds further credibility to Mingo’s potential impact.
He checks off all the boxes of a Day 3 sleeper WR, but the Green Bay Packers couldn’t wait until Day 3 draft him in the 2023 NFL Draft. They selected Reed 50th overall. Expect the Michigan State product to step in and be the immediate No. 2 WR. He broke out at an early age, at 18 years old while playing alongside NFL talent at Western Michigan. In 2021, Reed blew up as a junior, with 1,026 yards and ten receiving touchdowns en route to a career-high 34% dominator rating. His 23-year-old age isn’t ideal, but his experience might just help him hit the ground running sooner rather than later, especially considering that Reed flashed ability as a downfield threat with a top-5 deep target rate (29%) in his draft class in 2022. He also caught eight receiving TDs on 20-plus air-yard throws in 2021, which trailed only A.T. Perry and Jordan Addison in the nation. Reed also returned kicks at both Western Michigan and Michigan State, further bolstering his sleeper status. In 2018 as a true freshman, Reed was PFF’s 4th-highest graded punt returner in the nation. In 2021, he led the FBS in yards per punt return (19.8).
Last season, Chargers No. 3 WR Joshua Palmer ranked 6th in the NFL in routes run. LA was the only team to have three different WRs averaging 35-plus routes run per game. So, there’s a case to be made that even with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams ahead of Quentin Johnston on the current depth chart, the rookie can make a splash in one of the NFL’s most pass-happy offenses heralded by Justin Herbert. He’s big and fast enough to be a downfield weapon, which is perfect for spiked fantasy weeks. The 6-foot-3, 212-pound behemoth totaled 1,067 receiving yards, finishing fifth in his draft class with an elite 3.05 yards per route run. Johnston was a menace with the ball in his hands, finishing seventh in his draft class in yards after the catch per reception (8.9, 19 forced missed tackles). His forced missed tackle rate (38%) ranks first in the class per Sports Info Solutions. As a true freshman at 19 years old, Johnston broke out with a 21% dominator rating in 2020 as the team’s leading receiver, averaging 22.1 yards per reception – fifth best in the FBS.
Jordan Addison tends to be cheaper than fellow first-rounder Jaxon Smith-Njigba despite the former having the much better landing spot as the No. 2 WR alongside Justin Jefferson in the Vikings offense. Last season, Adam Thielen was 9th in route participation, running a route on a whopping 94% of dropbacks with 18 red-zone targets. The veteran also ranked 8th in routes run per game (39.5). It’s Addison’s NFL team fit and college profile that have me fully expecting him to hit the ground running. Recall that Addison broke out as an 18-year-old freshman in 2020 with 60 catches for 662 receiving yards and four TDs. The early-age production is a sign of an elite prospect, and it clearly foreshadowed Addison’s rise to becoming one of the best WRs in college football. He transferred to USC from Pittsburgh last year and led the Trojans with 59 catches for 875 yards and eight TDs on 79 targets. But more importantly, the 5-foot-11 and 173-pound wide receiver proved that he could play more outside after spending most of his time in the slot at Pittsburgh.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Hoppen’s Final Round Draft Dart Throws
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
- Making the Case for RB1
- Post-Hype Sleepers
- The Worst Fantasy Football Team You Could Draft at ADP
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