Let’s dive into fantasy football sleepers! I selected the start of Round 8 as my cut-off for sleepers because I’ve often found that’s the range in the draft when we start to see breakout RBs emerge.
The main goal is that one or several of them beat their average draft positions (ADP) by a significant margin, akin to performances from Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyler Allgeier, Dameon Pierce, Jerick McKinnon, Isiah Pacheco, D’Onta Foreman, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, Garrett Wilson, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones and Tyler Conklin last season.
Be prepared to find hidden talents across all teams, including those in unexpected situations like the Arizona Cardinals. My only requirement is that these players possess ADPs outside the top-84 players (in some capacity because this can vary by draft platform).
Get ready to make strategic moves and uncover the next breakout stars! Here are my top fantasy football sleepers for all NFL teams. Below we’ll offer a free look at a few of these names.
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers
The Dolphins opted to bring back both Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson for the 2023 season, but Wilson’s contract is worth more and has more guaranteed money. Plus, at just 27 years old, Wilson has a longer runway for his career. He will be competing with rookie Devon Achane for snaps in the backfield but given his experience and demonstrated ability to produce in the Dolphins’ offense – he immediately took on a sizable role after being traded to Miami last season – Wilson should be considered the better option than Mostert among the two veterans. His ability to contribute to the passing game and his larger role in the offense makes him a strong late-round flier option for fantasy managers looking for running back depth.
Including games played with SF, Wilson was a fantasy RB2 in 53% of his games played last season – better than Alvin Kamara (50%). I’d be happy to draft the high-upside rookie Devon Achane and Wilson to capture the high-end potential of this Dolphins offense at a cheap cost.
Kendre Miller spent his first two seasons in a two-way platoon with Zach Evans before the latter transferred to Mississippi. Miller flashed talent in a limited sample size, leading the FBS in yards after contact per attempt (5.06) in 2021. But with Evans gone in 2022, Miller was thrust into the RB1 role for the Horned Frogs, where he posted a career-high 23 percent dominator rating. The bell cow rushed for nearly 1400 yards at 5-foot-11, 215 pounds (identical to Bijan Robinson), and his size is enticing in addition to the efficiency he displayed on a per-play basis at the college level. Miller’s career of 3.14 yards per play ranks fourth best in the class. He’s explosive with the ball in his hands, as indicated by his 21 rushes of 15-plus yards last year (tied for the fifth-highest in the class). Per Sports Info Solutions, Miller also posted the 4th-lowest bust run rate (percentage of plays that resulted in EPA below -1) and finished first in his class in broken tackles per 100 touches (18). Miller did not test at all during the pre-draft process (recovering from post-season knee surgery), but that didn’t stop the New Orleans Saints from investing a third-round pick in him during the 2023 NFL Draft. Miller is an ideal home-run hitter and a 1-2 punch fit with veteran Jamaal Williams. The Saints also benefit from the league’s easiest schedule, putting Miller in a spot to face soft matchups when he finally earns opportunities.
Rashaad Penny finds himself in a new situation in Philadelphia, signing a one-year deal with the Eagles in the offseason. He’s expected to compete for the early-down lead back role, following in the footsteps of Miles Sanders. In 2022, Penny’s on-field production was impressive, averaging over six yards per carry and ranking second among all RBs in rushing percentage that resulted in 10-plus yards. However, he missed a significant amount of time due to injuries. Quarterback Jalen Hurts‘ presence at the goal line will obviously hinder Penny’s TD potential to some extent but make no mistake that the former first-round pick has the potential to score beyond just the 5-yard line. Of his 14 career touchdowns, 11 have come on 10-yard-plus plays, with seven of those being 30-plus plays from scrimmage. However, the addition of D’Andre Swift and the re-signing of Boston Scott could hinder Penny’s chances of a significant role in the Eagles’ offense.
While Swift and incumbent Kenneth Gainwell are expected to be the superior pass-catchers, Penny’s efficiency as a pure rusher should not be overlooked. However, his injury track record could impact his availability and overall production. With his low-risk contract, fantasy managers should consider Penny as a high-upside late-round selection, but it’s important to monitor his role/injury health status in the Eagles’ backfield throughout the offseason.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
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