We dive into the numbers of Week 1 to give you waiver wire and trade advice specific to each NFL team ahead of Week 2. You can find all of the analysis in Andrew Erickson’s Fantasy Football Forecast for Week 2. And below take a closer look at a few players of note ahead of the weekend.
- More Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Outlook
Washington Commanders
Sell Brian Robinson
RB Brian Robinson is an easy sell-high. 19 carries for 59 yards and scored a receiving TD on one of his two targets (61% snap share). I don’t think he’s losing the job anytime soon – Antonio Gibson fumbled and had 4 touches total – but owning a one-dimensional back on a team that could barely beat the Cardinals; not hard to see how this ends badly.
Arizona Cardinals
Avoid Zach Ertz
RB James Conner was a workhorse – 19 touches for 67 yards – but no TDs. His backup totaled negative yardage. He will continue to be a “volume is king” play after he finished second among ALL RBs in Week 1 with an 84% snap share.
Quarterback Josh Dobbs‘ favorite target was not Marquise Brown or Michael Wilson. Instead, it was tight end Zach Ertz off a torn ACL, who was peppered with 10 targets (33% target share). Bruh. 6 catches for 21 yards. Maybe this isn’t the best way to move the ball on offense.
Also, very surprised to see him play so clearly ahead of second-year tight end, Trey McBride. Doubled his snaps and routes run. McBride totaled more yards (23) on just two catches.
Ertz ran a route on all but three of Dobb’s dropbacks (91%) and was a heavy favorite in the red zone. I’d let somebody chase the Ertz targets off waivers. He needs that much volume to do anything in fantasy.
Brown/Wilson also ran the same number of routes as the other two starters. Wilson led the team with 64 air yards (33%).
Green Bay Packers
Add Luke Musgrave
The Packers dominated, but Aaron Jones injured his hamstring on one of his long receptions. No. 2 RB A.J. Dillon struggled with efficiency in relief, with just 19 yards on 13 carries.
Without No. 1 WR Christian Watson, it was a flat target rate between the remaining Packers WRs/TEs. Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs each saw 5 targets (19%), tight end Luke Musgrave had 4. Doubs scored twice, while Reed went just 2 for 48 and Musgrave 3 for 50. Reed only played 53% of the snaps but exited late with an injury. He and Doubs each earned a 66% route participation. But the rookie slot WR led with a 34% air yards share.
Musgrave continued his full-time role, playing 75% of the snaps and leading the team in routes run with Jordan Love under center (77% route participation).
I don’t think when Watson returns from his hamstring injury, he will necessarily step into a massive target share as Love has shown a tendency to spread wealth among his top pass-catchers.
Miami Dolphins
Sell Raheem Mostert
Tyreek Hill had a spectacular game, dominating with 11 receptions, 215 yards, and 2 TDs (34% target share, 45% air yards share). Hill tripled Jaylen Waddle‘s targets (5) despite both running a route on just 30 of 41 Tua Tagovailoa‘s dropbacks. 73%. The ex-Chiefs WR only played 66% of the snaps.
Tagovailoa had an impressive passing performance with 3 TDs and over 400 yards passing. Tight end Durham Smythe saw surprising involvement playing 100% of the team’s snaps on offense. Smythe – who has been seeing sneaky usage during the preseason – comes out with 7 targets (16%). Keep tabs on him.
RB Raheem Mostert scored on one of his 10 carries for 37 yards. Caught two passes. The team doesn’t seem overly convinced to get their RBs involved. Cannot blame them. Tyreek is open down there somewhere! But rest assured the RB getting work will be Mostert after he played 73% of the snaps to Salvon Ahmed‘s 28% snap rate. I would sell Mostert though given his long injury track record and De’Von Achane returning from injury soon.
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