This week we get back a lot of the premier players from bye teams, including the possible return of rookie sensation De’Von Achane. There are 11 games on the main slate, so let’s take a deep dive to see what mistakes DraftKings may have made with their pricing.
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NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 11
Sam Howell (QB – WAS) | $6,300) vs. NYG
Howell’s price has finally crossed the 6k threshold, but it’s still not even close to where he should be. He is currently the QB3 on the season after his recent outing against the Seattle Seahawks. Howell’s fantasy points per game (FPPG) is ahead of Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff. He’s also tied with Tua Tagovailoa and barely trails Patrick Mahomes. Howell has thrown the ball a whopping 183 times over the past four games and now gets a New York Giants team that is beyond crumbling. Howell should have plenty of opportunity in this one even if the game script permits Washington to run more.
Brock Purdy (QB – SF) |$5,800) @ TB
Purdy’s price tag only rose $100 despite posting 23.84 DK points in a decisive win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 10. It’s incredible how good he looks with his offense fully healthy, and he gets another great matchup this weekend against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They’ve been a pass funnel defense that has allowed 9.3 yards per attempt over the past five games (including Will Levis‘ dud last week) and have allowed nine passing touchdowns in that span as well. San Francisco should cook in this one, and Purdy will be at the center.
Devin Singletary (RB – HOU) | $5,300 vs. ARI
Singletary was a chalk bust two weeks ago but rose to this past week’s overall RB2 (and still carrying ownership). He’s gone up $600, but it’s not nearly enough if you take into account his current role and the pristine matchup. Running backs have gashed the Cardinals on the ground this year: Arizona allowed 143.1 yards per game, 14 all-purpose touchdowns and the third-most FPPG to the position. Singletary logged 31 touches this past week and should maintain that role with Dameon Pierce is still not ready to return to action.
Tyjae Spears (RB – TEN) | $4,600 @ JAC
As Derrick Henry‘s stock continues to fall while the Titans lose, there is growing optimism in the fantasy community that we’ll get closer a look at Spears soon. Henry will likely continue to out-touch Spears, but this is now the second consecutive week and fifth time this year that Spears out-snapped the Titans starter. Henry has a very difficult between-the-tackles matchup against the Jaguars, which could open up the passing game more for Spears. The rookie already has 15 targets through three games with Will Levis under center.
Christian Kirk (WR – JAC) | $6,000 vs. TEN
I’m honestly not sure what Kirk has to do to get DraftKings to price him up above 6k. He was the only receiver to have any kind of success against the 49ers defense and he did so in a pretty big way with a 6-104-0 line on 11 targets. Kirk now leads the team in targets, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, and the Titans have allowed the sixth most completions and the sixth-most FPPG to opposing wideouts.
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS) | $5,800 vs NYG
Speaking of “What does a guy have to do to get above 6k,” McLaurin seems to be perpetually priced at $5,800 – and that’s a gift this week. Even though his box score busted in Week 10, McLaurin still logged eight targets and he hasn’t seen fewer than seven targets since Week 5 against the Chicago Bears. As previously mentioned in Howell’s blurb, the Giants are are getting beat all over the place and they’re fresh off CeeDee Lamb going for 11-151-1. The Giants have struggled to cover WR1s all season, and their pressure rate will drop without Leonard Williams and (possibly) Kayvon Thibodeaux.
Trey McBride (TE – ARI) | $4,400 @ HOU
McBride’s pricing trajectory over the past few weeks has gone up from $2,500 to now $4,400. The casual player would tell you that he’s priced out, but it’s really not. Over the past three games, McBride has target shares of 28%, 41% and 28% and may even be the “1” to Marquise Brown‘s “1A.” McBride’s stock is surging, and he now gets a Houston defense which is has become one of the best matchups for TEs as the year goes on.