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Fantasy Games Won (FGW): Deebo Samuel, Tyreek Hill, DK Metcalf, Tank Dell

Fantasy Games Won (FGW): Deebo Samuel, Tyreek Hill, DK Metcalf, Tank Dell

When you look back on different fantasy football seasons, the genre of some players’ seasons is clear. Cooper Kupp was so great in 2021, you could call it fantasy. Tom Brady’s 2022 was a tragic romance.

For other players, the genre is not so clear. When we look back on 2023, we will probably disagree on which section of the bookstore to look for Tank Dell.

Fantasy Games Won (FGW)

I go over the FGW statistic in Week 8’s article. For a deeper dive, check out my blog. TL;DR: 0.15 = 15% increase in your chances of winning a fantasy matchup.

No More Farmer in the Dell

Don’t get me wrong – Dell has clearly had a breakout year… from a pure football perspective. However, whether he’s been a good fantasy asset in 2023 depends on how he’s performed while fantasy managers were comfortable putting him in their starting lineups.

Here’s his weekly performance for 2023 (half-PPR):

Week # Pts % Started FGW
Week 01 4.9 0% 0.00
Week 02 16.7 0% 0.00
Week 03 23.0 8% 0.02
Week 04 3.4 38% -0.07
Week 05 6.8 28% -0.03
Week 06 0.0 2% -0.01
Week 07 0.0 0% 0.00
Week 08 4.6 8% -0.01
Week 09 26.6 18% 0.05
Week 10 15.9 48% 0.04
Week 11 24.9 72% 0.19
Week 12 14.7 83% 0.05
Week 13 0.0 90% -0.23
Total 141.5 3.9 0.01

Dell did great in Weeks 2 and 3, but he was barely started in those weeks. Then, when he actually was started in Weeks 4 and 5, he was well below-average for a starting fantasy WR.

The rookie hit his stride again from Weeks 9-12, and fantasy managers finally took advantage. His total FGW was up to 0.24 – good for 32nd in all of fantasy entering Week 13.

This past week showed just how much an injury can hurt a fantasy player and drive a player’s impact on your team. Scoring 0 points at 90% started wiped out the positive impact he’s had all season.

Obviously, some teams may have nailed Dell’s performance this year – perhaps by starting him when almost nobody else did in Weeks 3 and 9. An average percent started is just an average, after all. Dell is also a great prospect for dynasty leagues – he could have netted you a bounty in a trade at the deadline, too – but there are many fantasy teams out there that have lost more than they’ve won because they picked up the rookie standout.

The story on Dell’s 2023 may be best placed in the choose-your-own-adventure section.

Who Won Week 13?

# Player Pos Pts %St FGW
1 Deebo Samuel WR 33.8 91% 0.36
2 Tyreek Hill WR 29.8 100% 0.34
3 DK Metcalf WR 34.4 76% 0.30
4 CeeDee Lamb WR 26.6 99% 0.29
5 Sam LaPorta TE 24.5 94% 0.29
6 Nico Collins WR 29.6 83% 0.28
7 Ja’Marr Chase WR 26.1 95% 0.27
8 Mike Evans WR 25.7 88% 0.25
9 Alvin Kamara RB 25.9 93% 0.24
10 Derrick Henry RB 24.5 92% 0.22
11 Joe Mixon RB 26.7 74% 0.21
12 Michael Pittman WR 22.0 93% 0.20
13 Dak Prescott QB 31.3 90% 0.19
14 Brock Purdy QB 33.5 74% 0.19
15 Evan Engram TE 18.7 88% 0.19
  • Deebo Samuel is back! This is actually Samuel’s best week since I started recording FGW in 2021. Deebo finished sixth in FGW in 2021, but his best FGW score that year was only 0.30 (27.8 pts, 96% started in Week 10).
  • Tyreek Hill extends his MVP lead with another big week. He’s at 2.37 for the year. He’s made Christian McCaffrey, who’s also been playing like a good first-overall pick at 2.13 for the year, seem like a consolation prize. At this point last year, no player was over 2.00 FGW (Travis Kelce was at 1.99).
  • Another big week for the Dak Prescott + CeeDee Lamb stack. They’ve almost certainly gotten you into the playoffs if you have both of them. Let’s see if they can land the plane.
  • It’s safe to say Sam LaPorta has arrived. He’s up to TE3 in FGW and is closing in on Hockenson for TE2. He’s setting an unrealistic bar for future rookie tight ends to meet.
  • If you took Ja’Marr Chase over Christian McCaffrey (hold me…), at least you got to experience a huge Monday night comeback with him this week. Those are always fun. Anyone with Chase and Mixon covered a 50+ point gap in most scoring systems.

Who Lost Week 13?

# Player Pos Pts %St FGW
15 Adam Thielen WR 4.0 63% -0.11
14 Devin Singletary RB 4.5 60% -0.11
13 Zack Moss RB 6.7 86% -0.13
12 Calvin Ridley WR 5.3 86% -0.13
11 Marquise Brown WR 0.0 51% -0.13
10 Christian Kirk WR 3.1 72% -0.14
9 Jahmyr Gibbs RB 5.9 92% -0.15
8 Patrick Mahomes QB 14.0 100% -0.16
7 Terry McLaurin WR 0.0 67% -0.17
6 D’Andre Swift RB 3.0 81% -0.18
5 Dallas DEF -1.0 96% -0.18
4 Rhamondre Stevenson RB 2.4 85% -0.20
3 Austin Ekeler RB 3.7 97% -0.20
2 Justin Herbert QB 8.0 82% -0.22
1 Tank Dell WR 0.0 90% -0.23
  • A lot of players got hurt this week in fantasy starting lineups. We had Marquise Brown, Christian Kirk, D’Andre Swift, Rhamondre Stevenson and the aforementioned Dell all getting banged up and blowing up at least 50% of starting lineups. This makes me wonder, if, at some point, we’ll have a system for fantasy where bench players can have their second halves count if the starter leaves the game in the first half.
  • Justin Herbert was actually QB1 by FGW after three weeks this year. We’re not into “The Love Bug” sequel territory yet, but we’re thinking about it.
  • We may be be on the verge of seeing Austin Ekeler‘s percent started number go below 90% for the first time since I started tracking FGW in 2021. If you traded for Austin Ekeler, hopefully, the player you gave up was someone like Cooper Kupp, who has been even more disappointing.
  • This was actually the fifth time this year that Dallas had negative FGW. They’re still the top fantasy defense (0.90 FGW), and it’s not really close (Baltimore is next at 0.62).

Week 13 Junior Varsity All-Stars

# Player Pos Pts %St bFGW
1 Christian Watson WR 24.1 18% 0.21
2 Geno Smith QB 33.0 24% 0.19
3 Indianapolis DEF 18.0 25% 0.17
4 Chuba Hubbard RB 22.4 32% 0.13
5 Jake Browning QB 27.2 3% 0.13
6 Alec Pierce WR 17.5 0% 0.12
7 Atlanta DEF 17.0 49% 0.10
8 Harrison Bryant TE 13.4 0% 0.10
9 Los Angeles Chargers DEF 17.0 52% 0.10
10 DK Metcalf WR 34.4 76% 0.09
11 Matt Gay K 14.0 27% 0.09
12 Matthew Stafford QB 26.0 14% 0.09
13 James Conner RB 22.5 58% 0.08
14 Jordan Love QB 26.7 33% 0.08
15 Puka Nacua WR 21.9 66% 0.07

*bFGW is the FGW total lost due to low percent started numbers. Essentially, points scored on fantasy benches or free-agent lists.

  • It was a good week for Christian Watson – though he probably scored on your bench. He played most of the game, but he did get banged up at the end. Good prospects for the future, and good prospects for those competing with him for targets. Not so elementary to evaluate, my dear Watson.
  • If you had Jake Browning in your lineup, it’s time to take it out of the oven. Expect a flavor that is an eclectic blend of surprise fantasy performance and deathcore.
  • DK Metcalf showed up on both the weekly winners and the JV All-Stars, as 24% of DK managers had him on their bench. Insert AdamSandlerKindergartenMeme.jpg.

Leaderboard Updates

The question isn’t whether Hill will probably win MVP, but if he’ll beat Cooper Kupp‘s 2021 (hit 3.01 FGW through Week 17). An updated dFGW equation still has Hill as the best value per draft slot, and it’s not really close.

Trevor Lawrence was playing like he’s not the Least Valuable Player anymore. Well, he isn’t. All the biggest investment disappearances have been hurt at some point, except one.

Mark Andrews backed his way up not one but two slots on the All-Time FGW list. This is despite not playing a down in Week 13.

Don’t Go Into the Tank

Most leagues have at least one more week left in the fantasy football regular season. Hopefully, your teams still have something to play for this week – either a playoff spot, better seeding or to knock that other jerk out of the race. If you don’t have much left to play for, I have some memes in my weekly video that might alleviate the sting a bit.

Good luck in whatever mission your teams are on in Week 14, be it to spoil or avoid being spoiled. See you here next Wednesday, as we’ll check the expiration date on that milk.

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