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Fantasy Baseball Draft ADP vs. Expert Rankings (2024)

Fantasy Baseball Draft ADP vs. Expert Rankings (2024)

FantasyPros offers fantasy baseball draft rankings from experts across the industry to create Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR), and they have asked me to go through all of them to find outliers compared to the average draft position (ADP). While no doubt that would be an effective way to get a leg up during your draft, I decided to go a different route that will probably not make me many friends: I want to focus on specific rankings that require their own analysis.

Rankings that differ from the consensus so much that if only they changed their ranking, it would tangibly impact the player’s overall ranking on FantasyPros. These experts went out on a limb for these players and I respect that.

ECR vs. ADP

Oneil Cruz (SS – PIT) – Consensus #64

  • Tim Kanek (Fantasy Aceball) – #138
  • Next Lowest Ranking – #106

A 74-spot difference from consensus is significant and a 32-spot difference from the next lowest ranking is the largest difference from any top 100 player I came across.

Oneil Cruz is fully healthy, a former top prospect and stole three bases in nine games before his ankle was demolished in a home-plate collision nobody should rewatch.

No doubt this low ranking is related to his prior injury but it significantly depresses his consensus ranking while smart people at FantasyPros have been happily scooping him up in the fifth/sixth round.

Corbin Carroll (OF – ARI) – Consensus #5

  • Kev Mahserejian (RotoBaller) – #22
  • Next Lowest Ranking – #11

Corbin Carroll is 23 years old, won Rookie of the Year, started in the National League All-Star game and led his team on a World Series run with amazing underlying numbers showing this is not a fluke. Not to mention the Diamondbacks went out and got help for the middle of their lineup.

I understand the sophomore slump but ranking him below Rafael Devers and Francisco Lindor was eye-catching.

What I found most interesting about the one expert being that much lower was the consensus of how elite OF options matter this year.

Is Lindor/Devers skill-wise that much different? Probably not. Seems like most experts are trying to lock in an elite OF when they have the chance.

Lane Thomas (OF – WAS) – Consensus #111

  • Chris Towers (CBS Sports) – #189
  • Next Lowest Ranking – #159

I find myself fascinated by the differences in rankings for players who do not have an injury history and stay in the same/similar situation.

I understand the difference between the first two players analyzed. Injury history. Sophomore slump. Is the skill really that much different from round one to round three? I get it.

But how is there a seven-round discrepancy on Lane Thomas?

Add in the fact a ranker from Razzball has Lane Thomas at #63 overall, we are talking about a 136-ranking difference. How is this possible?

For blind reference, another 136-pick difference in the draft:

This is a huge difference.

Out of outfielders with at least 250 at-bats last year, Lane Thomas is:

  • 57th in WOBA (.318)
  • 47th in Hard-Hit Percentage (41.0%)
  • 70th in K Percentage (25.8%)
  • 43rd in Slugging (.341)

Underwhelming. Maybe nationally renowned writer Chris Towers is onto something.

Spencer Steer (3B – CIN) – Consensus #111

  • Brandon Myers – Razzball – #35
  • Next Highest Ranking – #81

Alright, let’s run back the same stats on Spencer Steer before I grandstand.

Among third basemen with at least 250 at-bats in 2023, Spencer Steer ranked:

  • 15th in WOBA
  • 25th in Hard-Hit Percentage
  • 13th in K Percentage
  • 18th in Slugging

Steer’s positional eligibility is no doubt the reason his ADP among third basemen is 12th but his stats aren’t anything to write home about.

Put me in the camp of “ranking him 35th overall is too high, that is around Jose Altuve, George Kirby, and Randy Arozarena who will be more valuable this year.”

Largest ECR vs. ADP Discrepancies

See below for the largest discrepancies between consensus rankings and overall ADP.

Keep in mind discrepancies between ADPs are relative — a one-round difference between the first and second rounds is not equivalent to a one-round difference between seven and eight.

Top 25 Discrepancies

Picks 26 – 50 Discrepancies

Picks 51 – 75 Discrepancies

Picks 76 – 100 Discrepancies

Additional Interesting Discrepancies

Want more ADP discrepancies to give you an advantage in your draft? Check out the rankings here!

Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice


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