Saturday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props
Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (4/12)
- The top-tier option that most interests me is Bryan Woo. He has a home matchup against the Texas Rangers. Woo has consistently been better at home in his career. He has a career 2.71 ERA at home versus a 4.08 ERA on the road. That’s not surprising given the pitching haven Seattle has in T-Mobile Park. The matchup is also favorable for Woo as the Rangers have struggled mightily against right-handed pitchers. They currently have the worst batting average against right-handed pitchers in all of baseball at a mere .197.
- We have one Major League start from Chase Dollander to go off of with this recommendation. It was fine if unspectacular with six strikeouts in five innings and a 25% whiff rate. That was at Coors Field. Road starts are where he is going to interest us. While not particularly long, Dollander’s Minor League track record shows that strikeouts come in bunches with him. He averaged nearly 13 strikeouts per nine innings in the Minors last season. The Padres have been a tough team to strike out, though.
- Andrew Heaney showed what he can do in his last start with 10 strikeouts over seven innings against a tough Yankees offense. So far, he has thrown his curveball at a much higher rate than anything we’ve seen in the past, and it has been getting good results with a 42.9% whiff rate. It’s a good matchup as well against the Cincinnati Reds. Early on in the season, the Reds have struggled to a .141 batting average against left-handed pitchers.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
Houston Astros Projected Lineup (4/12)
| POS |
PLAYER |
DraftKings Salary |
FanDuel Salary |
| 2B/OF |
Jose Altuve |
$5,200 |
$3,700 |
| 3B |
Isaac Paredes |
$3,800 |
$2,900 |
| OF |
Yordan Alvarez |
$5,700 |
$3,700 |
| 1B |
Christian Walker |
$4,200 |
$3,000 |
| SS |
Jeremy Pena |
$3,500 |
$3,000 |
| 2B |
Brendan Rodgers |
$2,600 |
$2,500 |
| C |
Yainer Diaz |
$3,400 |
$2,600 |
| OF |
Jake Meyers |
$2,400 |
$2,600 |
| OF |
Cam Smith |
$2,300 |
$2,400 |
- It may seem odd recommending the Houston Astros against a left-handed pitcher, considering they are currently last in OPS against left-handed pitching at an abysmal .258. Of course, that is a sample size of only 11 at-bats. There are a lot of the same players in this lineup that put up a .752 OPS against left-handed pitchers last season, which was fifth-best in all of baseball. Plus, many of these batters have extensive track records against Tyler Anderson.
- While you’re going to have to pay up for Jose Altuve or Yordan Alvarez, their histories against Anderson say there is a good chance they’ll deliver. Altuve is 9-for-25 in his career with a home run. Alvarez is 7-for-19 with three home runs.
- While they don’t have as extensive a history against Anderson, Astros stars Christian Walker and Brendan Rodgers are more affordable options. Walker is 7-for-29 in his career with a home run of his own off Anderson. Rodgers is 5-for-13 with a home run. The Astros’ offense looks poised to deliver a big offensive day.
Los Angeles Dodgers Projected Lineup (4/12)
| POS |
PLAYER |
DraftKings Salary |
FanDuel Salary |
| 1B (DK)/OF |
Shohei Ohtani |
$6,600 |
$4,500 |
| SS/2B/OF (FD) |
Mookie Betts |
$6,100 |
$4,200 |
| 1B |
Freddie Freeman |
$4,800 |
$3,700 |
| OF |
Teoscar Hernandez |
$4,900 |
$4,000 |
| OF |
Michael Conforto |
$4,400 |
$2,700 |
| C |
Will Smith |
$4,700 |
$3,200 |
| 2B/SS/OF (FD) |
Tommy Edman |
$4,700 |
$3,200 |
| 3B |
Max Muncy |
$4,200 |
$2,800 |
| OF |
Andy Pages |
$2,800 |
$2,600 |
- If you decide to go with a cheaper pitching option, the Dodgers’ offense is always one to target for DFS purposes. A matchup with Ben Brown could be very productive for the offense.
- Brown opposed the Dodgers in the season’s opening series in Tokyo. In that game, he allowed two earned runs in 2.2 innings while pitching relief. Since then, he has moved to the rotation. It has been a struggle as he currently sits with an ERA over seven and a 50% hard-hit rate against.
- Meanwhile, the Dodgers are the second-best team in baseball for OPS versus right-handed pitching. That was mostly without Freddie Freeman, who recently returned. While it is a very small sample size, the Dodgers have four batters with an OPS over 1.000 against right-handed pitchers in Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Michael Conforto and Will Smith. Three more batters have an OPS over .800 in Mookie Betts, Tommy Edman and Andy Pages.
Core Studs
- Corbin Carroll has never seen Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Chad Patrick. He is a core stud because he is currently in the top five percentiles in the league for average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate, meaning extra-base hits could come in bunches.
- Mike Trout is showing early this season that he can still hit home runs in bunches when healthy. He already has six home runs, including three in the last two games.
- I know I recommended Bryan Woo as a pitcher to target, but if you are going to take a Rangers batter against him, make it Corey Seager. Seager is 3-for-4 against Woo in his career with a home run and five RBI.
Value Plays/Punts
- Ke’Bryan Hayes is much more appealing when the Pittsburgh Pirates take on a left-handed pitcher. Today, they face leftie Andrew Abbott. Hayes is 2-for-5 against Abbott in his career, with both hits being home runs.
- The Rockies are taking on left-handed pitcher Kyle Hart. He is currently giving up flyballs 52.9% of the time. It’s been a slow start to the season for Michael Toglia, but last season he had an .833 OPS against left-handed pitchers.
- One Reds player who has an impressive history against Andrew Heaney is Jeimer Candelario. He has four hits in seven career at-bats versus Heaney. Each hit has been an extra-base hit — two doubles and two home runs.
Saturday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Anthony Santander has cleared this number in each of the last two games. He also bested this mark in two of the three games earlier this season against the Baltimore Orioles. FantasyPros’ daily MLB projections have him at 1.09 base hits, which would easily top this mark.
Much has been made of Cristopher Sanchez throwing harder early this season. So far, it hasn’t meant much improvement in the box score. He has exceeded this number in one of his two starts this season. He takes on a Cardinals team that has the second-most hits this season.
After a hot March start, it has been a cold month of April for Tyler O’Neill. He is just 4-for-24 this month in seven games. O’Neill has cleared this number once in seven April games. It’s a small sample, but he is also 0-for-4 in his career against Blue Jays starting pitcher Bowden Francis.
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