We’ll have you covered as you prepare for your 2025 dynasty drafts. In order to dominate your dynasty draft, check out our expert consensus dynasty draft rankings. And sync your dynasty league to practice with fast and free dynasty mock drafts. Below, we dive into dynasty draft picks our analysts are lower on compared to our expert consensus rankings.
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Dynasty Draft Advice: Players to Avoid
Justin Herbert is widely regarded as an above-average or very good starting QB, but his offensive environment isn’t conducive to big fantasy numbers. Under offensive coordinator Greg Roman, the Chargers had the 10th run-heaviest offense in the league last season. They also operated at the second slowest pace in the league last season. Herbert averaged only 29.6 pass attempts per game and finished the season with 3,870 passing yards, 23 TD passes and only three interceptions. He added 306 rushing yards and two TD runs. WR Ladd McConkey was a revelation as a rookie, the Chargers added promising WR Tre Harris in this year’s draft, and they re-signed veteran slot receiver Keenan Allen in early August. Weaponry shouldn’t be an issue for the talented Herbert, but a run-heavy approach and a sluggish offensive pace will likely keep Herbert from being anything more than an average fantasy quarterback.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Let’s call a spade a spade here. Caleb Williams had a VERY tough rookie season. The ballyhooed savior of the Windy City didn’t exactly have the start to his career that many people hoped for and hyped. Williams was the QB21 in fantasy points per game, which was aided greatly by his legs (seventh in rushing yards among quarterbacks). Williams was the QB12 in expected fantasy points per game, so the disappointment was very real. When we discuss what he did as a passer, the true tragedy becomes apparent. Last year, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Williams ranked 34th in yards per attempt, 24th in CPOE, and 26th in highly accurate throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Williams had the ninth-highest off-target rate and the second-lowest catchable target rate (only Anthony Richardson was worse). The Bears have added a TON of personnel to help Williams find his footing in year two with offensive line upgrades, a strong play-caller (Ben Johnson), and the additions of Luther Burden and Colston Loveland. I do believe Williams will take a step forward, but the real question is how much. Williams is best viewed as a dice roll QB2.
– Derek Brown
Kyler Murray finished as the QB12 in fantasy points per game last year with 18.1 points per game. He has settled into this realm over the last three seasons with 18.1-18.9 points per game. Rushing was still a big part of his production, as he ranked fourth in rushing yards and seventh in rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks. Murray is the epitome of “better in best ball than redraft.” If you had him on any of your teams last year, you perfectly understood the frustration with rostering Murray that his QB12 finish doesn’t explain. Last year, he had five top-five weekly finishes, with an average of 26.2 fantasy points per game. Sandwiched around those week-winning performances were nine weeks where he was the QB15 or lower in weekly scoring. Murray is a player where you know the ceiling outcome exists weekly, but you see it so infrequently that you can never be sure when to plug him into a lineup. His passing numbers were nothing to write home about last year. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 20th in yards per attempt and highly accurate throw rate, 18th in CPOE, and 16th in passer rating (per Fantasy Points Data).
– Derek Brown
David Montgomery could be hard-pressed to turn a profit on his low-end RB2 ADP. He shares work with Jahmyr Gibbs, one of the most talented RBs in the league. Montgomery has averaged 16.8 and 15.8 touches a game in Gibbs’ first two seasons. I’ll bet the under on 15.8 touches a game for Montgomery in 2025, as I expect an uptick in Gibbs’ usage. We could also see a dip in Montgomery’s TD total. He’s scored 13 and 12 touchdowns the last two years, as the Lions ranked first and fifth in scoring those two seasons. If the Lions scale back Montgomery’s usage to give Gibbs more snaps, or if the Detroit offense has hiccups after losing offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to the Bears, Monty’s TD total could slip. He’s a quality running back, but I see Montgomery as more of an RB3 than an RB2.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
The Browns selected Judkins in the second round of the NFL Draft to be their new early down volume thumper. With Judkins and Dylan Sampson added to this depth chart, I expect Jerome Ford to become a sparsely utilized change-of-pace option. I wasn’t high on Judkins as a prospect, as he ranked outside the top 65 backs in each of the last two seasons in yards after contact per attempt and elusive rating (per PFF). The draft capital and immediate high-volume role have helped to quell some of my pessimism, but Judkins could be held back by the overall ecosystem of the Browns’ offense and his lack of pass game upside. Cleveland’s starting quarterback situation is murky at best. Judkins finished college with 0.76 yards per route run, which isn’t an awe-inspiring number. Clouding Judkins’ availability and ADP is his recent arrest for domestic violence and his still unsigned NFL contract. The NFL has handled off-field issues in a multitude of ways, so I’m not assuming a suspension while we wait for details to continue to surface, but I also wouldn’t rule it out. Judkins missed time in camp and practice will also loom large with his 2025 role in the offense. He’s a risky RB3/4 for 2025.
– Derek Brown
Last year, Williams pulled off his best yesteryear Rachaad White or Leonard Fournette impression. A volume gobbling inefficient back who turned in an RB1 season (RB10). Williams ranked first in snap share, second in opportunity share, and first in red zone touches. Williams had 350 touches and 1,481 total yards. With all that said, Williams was one of the most inefficient per-touch backs in the NFL. Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked 44th in explosive run rate, 37th in missed tackle rate, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Williams could retain his stranglehold on the volume again with the new contract secured, but it’s also possible that Blake Corum or Jarquez Hunter could eat into his workload. Williams is a top 15-20 running back who could easily be an RB1 again or see his stock come crashing down.
– Derek Brown
Rashee Rice was electric early last season, averaging 21.6 PPR fantasy points per game over the first three weeks. But he tore his LCL in Week 4 and missed the rest of the year. It’s possible Rice goes right back to being Patrick Mahomes‘ favorite short-area target and picks up where he left off. But young WR Xavier Worthy asserted himself for the Chiefs down the stretch last season. Rice is also facing a potential suspension for his involvement in a multi-car crash in Dallas in March 2024. His disciplinary hearing with the league is scheduled for Sept. 30. The league reportedly wanted to suspend Rice for 10 games, but the NFLPA objected. Fantasy managers should probably plan on a suspension of at least 4-6 games for Rice.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
DK Metcalf joins the Steelers as their new No. 1 WR after finishing 2024 as the WR32 (WR33 per game) with 992 yards and a career-low 5 TDs in 15 games. However, before a knee injury in Week 7, Metcalf was off to a scorching start – ranking top-5 in targets, yards, and air yards. Now in Pittsburgh’s run-heavy Arthur Smith offense, target share won’t be an issue, but overall passing volume/efficiency may be. Even with Aaron Rodgers at QB, this offense will have a low pass rate. Metcalf’s fantasy ceiling hinges on red-zone usage and big plays. The opportunity is there, but his 2025 value depends entirely on the Steelers’ offensive competency with the 41-year-old QB under center.
– Andrew Erickson
Jaxon Smith-Njigba broke out in a big way in his sophomore season. He was the WR17 in fantasy points per game and really exploded down the stretch. In Weeks 9-18, he was the WR8 in fantasy points per game, ranking 11th in target share (25.4%), tenth in receiving yards per game (82.4), and ninth in yards per route run and first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). I was very bullish about Smith-Njigba last year, but I find myself worried about his 2025 outlook. The Seattle Seahawks are going to lean on their ground game more this season after ranking sixth in pass rate over expectation and fourth in neutral passing rate in 2024. Even if Smith-Njigba proves that he can pick up right where he left off, his raw target volume could dip this season. I’m also worried about him playing more on the perimeter this season. Last year, during that insane stretch, he ran out of the slot on 81.3% of his snaps. Last year, his separation (0.035 vs. 0.068) and route win rate (9.4% vs. 10.4%) were notably worse as a perimeter wide receiver, while also noting that his overall numbers in these metrics were surprisingly poor. Overall, among 112 qualifying receivers, he ranked 62nd in separation score and 88th in route win rate. Smith-Njigba could return low-end WR2 value this season, but he’s a tough player to click as a high-end WR2/ borderline WR1.
– Derek Brown
T.J. Hockenson missed seven games in 2024 while recovering from the devastating knee injury he sustained in December 2023. Upon his return, he had 41 catches for 455 yards in 10 games but didn’t score any touchdowns. Hockenson has been a trusted brand name at the TE position, but he’s entering his age-28 season and has missed 26 games over the last four seasons. Hockenson must share targets with Vikings WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and those targets will be coming from a quarterback who’s never started an NFL game, top 2023 Minnesota draft pick J.J. McCarthy.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Dalton Kincaid dealt with injuries last season (knee/shoulder) that derailed his season after Week 9. Last year, in Weeks 1-9, he was the TE15 in fantasy points per game, which is a massive disappointment for a player with his talent in a scoring-rich environment in Buffalo. During that stretch, among 38 qualifying tight ends, he ranked sixth in target share (19.2%) and first-read share (21.3%), 18th in receiving yards per game (36.9), 17th in yards per route run (1.71), and 15th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). His market share in the Bills offense is encouraging, but his per-route efficiency is concerning, as well as his 64.9% route per dropback rate (19th). If Buffalo is determined to cap his route share because of Dawson Knox and their offensive design, Kincaid will need to be a hyper-efficient player to reach TE1 land. Kincaid is a TE2 bet on talent and the hope that his role grows in 2025.
– Derek Brown
Travis Kelce finished with the fewest receiving yards of his career since becoming a starter in 2014. He still gobbled up targets, but he was hopelessly inefficient last year, and entering his age-35 season, I’m not sure if that changes. Last year, he finished as the TE6 in fantasy points per game, which was aided by Andy Reid’s pass-happy offense and Kelce having the third-most targets among tight ends. Among 47 qualifying tight ends, Kelce ranked fourth in target share (22%), fifth in receiving yards per game (51.4), and first in red zone targets, but that’s where the good news stops, as he was also 18th in yards per route run (1.62), 40th in yards after the catch per reception (3.86), and 18th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Kelce will be peppered with volume again this year and finish as a TE1, but the days of him being a top-three fantasy tight-end option are gone.
– Derek Brown
Here are our latest Dynasty Draft Rankings from our consensus of fantasy football experts. You can find the latest Dynasty Draft Rankings and sync your fantasy football league for specific advice.
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