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Fantasy Football Trade Advice
Players to Buy
Jeanty had 11 carries, 43 yards; 4 targets, three catches, 4 yards. Broken tackles machine. However, more RBs were used. Jeanty played just a 56% snap share. However, I think this was more to the game flow, and the fact that Jeanty did get taken off the field after misreading one of the play calls. Rookie mistake. The tackle-breaking is as advertised.
Taylor had 25 carries, 165 yards; 2 rec, 50 yards (3 targets), TD. Monster workload (27 touches). 1H: 11 carries, 38 yards; plus receiving TD late in half. Fantasy: Locked-in RB1 with heavy usage (93% snap share). And what’s different this season (besides better QB play), JT is running more routes! Buy!
Obviously, the risks with Achane are high with injuries and the Dolphins organization. But the offense, while not perfect, isn’t the main issue (OL injuries, etc.) The Dolphins’ defense is terrible and is forcing Miami to air it out early and often. And, as bad as Miami’s collective struggles have been, Achane has looked fantastic. If you are looking for an affordable swing at RB, I think Achane is an intriguing trade target.
McConkey had 5 targets, five catches, 48 yards. Two weeks have been frustrating in the box score, but McConkey is still the best WR on the Chargers. Buy low. Had a chance for a long TD, but Herbert couldn’t pull the trigger.
5 catches, 27 yds on 8 targets (36% share) in Week 2. Usage: Heavy volume, but Chiefs’ DBs kept him underneath. Nothing intermediate for AJB, who feasted on a lot of slants. Still a strong target share and better than last week. Still, not the bounce back I envisioned from either Eagles WR after a bad Week 1. DeVonta Smith had a few more opportunities on some additional deep shots but ultimately fell short. The Eagles need to be pushed for us to see more involvement from the WRs. Luckily, the next two matchups – Rams, Buccaneers – are ones that they could see some push back in. I’m ready to buy low.
Waddle had 7 targets, five rec, 68 yards, TD. 1H: 4 targets, 1 TD. Strong WR2 usage. If Hill gets moved, we know Waddle can be a fantasy WR. Cheap buy.
Pickens had 12 targets (33%), nine catches, 68 yards, 1 TD. Massive volume, particularly in the 2nd half (7 targets after halftime). Prescott to Pickens 22-yard DPI, no play. Greg Olsen mentioned that Pickens’ role moving around the formation would change as the season progressed. 8 targets after Turpin’s last kickoff return (likely when he sustained the neck injury). Buy. The best is yet to come.
Henderson finished Week 2 with just 4 carries, 10 yds; 2 rec, 30 yds. Mostly 1H involvement. 32% snap share. The Pats love getting him in space, but that was not called for in this matchup.
Rhamondre Stevenson stole the show. Henderson is going to be volatile week-to-week because sometimes his role will only call for a handful of touches. And when he doesn’t rip off a big play…well, this is the result. A reminder that this Stevenson/Henderson split is very reminiscent of Gibbs/Montgomery. It was one of the stats I used when citing Henderson potentially being over hyped in draft season (which I wish I had stuck to my guns on closer to the end of draft season). In the first six weeks, Gibbs was outside the top-30 RBs in PPG as a rookie, while David Montgomery was a top-10 fantasy back. Be patient. The Steelers’ defense can’t stop anything-specifically the outside zone. Unfortunately, Stevenson has a poor YPC on outside rushes (not great in space). 1.6 YPC this season on outside zone. Only RB worse? Zach Charbonnet. Henderson is averaging 5.2 ypc on outside tackle runs this season. Also, the schedule is great for the Pats’ ground game.
Mason had 9 carries, 30 yards; 3 targets, two catches, 8 yards. Played 36% snaps (27/75). Holding (MIN Wanya Rouse) wiped out a Mason 18-yard run. I think Mason has looked good through two weeks (10th in rushing yards above expectation per attempt).
Harvey had 5 carries, eight yards + 1 rec, 16 yards. 33% snap share. Buy low. Led the backfield in routes run.
Smith had 4 catches, 53 yards on 6 targets (27% share). 1H: Moved chains twice, long 28-yd gain in 4Q key to go-ahead TD. Not the bounce back I envisioned from either Eagles WR. Smith had a few more opportunities on some additional deep shots but ultimately fell short. The Eagles need to be pushed for us to see more involvement from the WRs. Luckily the next two matchups are ones that they could see some push back in. I’m ready to buy low.
Players to Sell
Etienne had 14 carries, 71 yards (5.1 YPC); 2 rec (3 tgt), 18 yards, TD. 1H usage: 7 carries, 49 yards; 1 target. Featured early and scored through the air in Q3. 66% snap rate. However, matchups are getting tougher – a natural window to explore Etienne sell-high if you’re RB-rich.
Leads all RBs in fantasy points scored below expectation. A la, it’s been tough sledding so far. The OL has done him no favors. I think Brown is who I am most concerned about without Joe Burrow. He’s been very inefficient, rushing through two games. 6th-worst in success rate (2.4 ypc). Not all his fault – 3.6 yards after contact per attempt – but it’s not going to get easier for Chase Brown. Now the team leaned on Joe Mixon in this situation two years ago, which is possible with Brown. But what we have seen from the Bengals’ o-line so far…I’d rather sell the idea that the team will go all-in on Brown. Defenses know that.
For the second straight week, James Conner salvaged his fantasy day with a TD. 12 carries, 34 yards, 1 rushing TD plus 1 catch for 18 yards. But just a 55% snap rate. Meanwhile, Trey Benson played a 44% snap rate (an increase from last week and a career-high). Conner was listed as a sell last week, and he remains on the sell-high list after another TD. This was a smash spot for him, and he underwhelmed versus the league’s worst run defense. Through two weeks, Conner is averaging just 3.2 ypc with a bottom-5 rushing success rate. Benson is continuing to get more usage (especially as a receiver).
Swift had 12 touches for 63 yards rushing (5.3 YPC) + 3 catches (3 targets) for 6 yards. Had eight first-half touches, showing locked-in RB1 role. Also fumbled late in Q1-57% snaps. After two weeks, Swift ranks 4th-worst in rushing success rate. 6th-worst in EPA/rush. 10th-worst in rushing yards after contact per attempt.
Without the long TD in Week 2, Higgins would have bombed. Given the QB downgrade in Cincy and Higgins’ reliance on TDs last season, I’d be looking to deal him. Jake Browning completed one pass to Higgins in Week 2 (1 for 5). Higgins is going to be extremely boom-or-bust without Joe Burrow. In 5 games with Browning in 2023, Higgins averaged 11.7 PPG. 2 20-plus point games (but Chase missed one game) and three with fewer than 8.5. Through two games, Higgins is just the WR49 in XPPG.
Monty had 11 carries, 57 yards, 1 TD (after St. Brown was tackled at the 1-yard line; 1 target, one catch for 4 yards. Short-yardage hammer with multiple red-zone carries-39% snap rate (nearly identical to last week). Still can’t help but feel like this is a sell-high spot for Monty. This is a perfect game script with the Lions jumping out to a big lead.
Hill saw 8 targets, six rec, 109 yards. 1H: 3 catches, 40 yards. If you drafted Hill, this is your time to get out. Rumor is that he is not going to be traded…but we always know this is what happens before a player gets dealt. Maybe a reunion with the Chiefs is in order…in which case I’d probably hold until he gets dealt. But if somebody offers you a deal now, I wouldn’t wait and just cash out.
Deebo Samuel finished Week 2 with 7 catches (8 targets) for 44 yards and a late 4th-quarter TD. But in the first half, just 3 touches, mainly on short passes. Became a focal point late. Sell high. QB is banged up, and Terry McLaurin might be getting back into pre-holdout form. Deebo is top-5 in fantasy points scored ABOVE expectation this season.
Totaled 6 targets, 4 catches, 61 yds in Week 2. However, he was still plagued by drops (including a TD that was intercepted). Sell for me. If Kelce cannot take advantage of being the Chiefs’ best receiver, it’s not going to get easier when the other WRs come back healthy.
In Week 2, Andrews saw just 3 targets, 1-2 stat line. He saw a carry (!) for 2 yds. 80% snap rate. The usage was fine in terms of playing time. But he’s just not commanding any targets. It won’t get easier when Isaiah Likely returns. Possible he scores next week based on the red-zone usage, but that’s about it. Sell.
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