MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Saturday (9/20)

We are getting closer and closer to the end of the baseball regular season. This is the time to solidify your bankroll. When teams start clinching playoff spots, their lineups will begin getting wonky. Today, we’re looking at an evening slate. We’re looking at an 11-game MLB DFS slate on DraftKings that begins at 5:05 Eastern Time. FanDuel has a similar slate, but includes one less game. FanDuel doesn’t include the Guardians and Twins game.

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Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (9/20)

• This will be the second game in a row that Tyler Glasnow faces the San Francisco Giants. In his last start, he allowed a single earned run over 6.2 innings with four strikeouts. It was a continuation of the recent form that he has been on. He has scored 33 or more points on FanDuel in six of his last seven starts.
• Injuries to the Brewers’ rotation have moved Chad Patrick back into a starting pitcher role. As a starting pitcher earlier in the season, he was performing quite well. Over his first 12 starts, he had a 2.73 ERA and a 3.15 FIP. Considering he has been pitching relief recently, the one concern at that price point is that he has a short start. Over the last 30 days, his opponent today, the St. Louis Cardinals, are tied for the second fewest runs scored in baseball.
• If you’re looking to be a bit thriftier with your starting pitcher on DraftKings, look at Bailey Ober. His last start of the season showed flashes of the pitcher that had fantasy managers excited earlier in the season. He recorded a season high nine strikeouts over six innings. He still allowed four earned runs, but three of them came on a home run by James McCann. His matchup today is against the Cleveland Guardians. They have a bottom-five offense in wRC+ over the last 30 days.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Toronto Blue Jays Projected Lineup (9/20)

• Even with some injuries, the Toronto Blue Jays continue to be one of the offenses that we look to target as a stack. Today, they take on left-handed pitcher Noah Cameron. The Blue Jays offense is third in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this season. Cameron has a 2.98 ERA but has vastly outperformed his peripheral numbers with a FIP of 4.21 and an expected ERA of 3.82.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. against a left-handed pitcher piques one’s interest. He is great against right-handed pitchers with an .844 OPS, but performs even better against left-handed pitchers. Against left-handed pitchers, he has a .980 OPS.
• The other player in the Blue Jays’ lineup that you have to play against left-handed pitchers is Ernie Clement. Even though he has nearly 200 more at-bats against right-handed pitchers, he has more extra-base hits against left-handed pitchers. He has 25 extra-base hits, including six home runs, against left-handed pitchers.
• George Springer is not slowing down. Over the last 28 days, he has an OPS of 1.041. While he’s been slightly better against right-handed pitchers, an .847 OPS against left-handed pitchers is nothing to be afraid of.

Milwaukee Brewers Projected Lineup (9/20)

• The Milwaukee Brewers are taking on the division rival St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals will be starting Miles Mikolas in that game. Mikolas has a 4.80 ERA on the season which is actually lower than his 4.94 FIP. This will be the second straight straight start for him against the Brewers. In his last start he only allowed two earned runs, but they each came via solo home runs showing how it could have been much worse.
• Let’s start our Brewers stack with Christian Yelich. He has seen a lot of Mikolas in his career with some successs. Yelich is 10-47 against Mikolas in his career with a pair of home runs. He is the only qualified batter with a home run to fly ball percentage over 30%. Don’t be surprised if he is able to hit a home run today.
• Brice Turang‘s price just keeps climbing, but he also just keeps delivering production. This season he has thirty-eight extra-base hits against right-handed pitching. 15 of his 18 home runs have come against right-handed pitchers.
• There were times earlier in the season when the Brewers were getting production out of their first base position from Rhys Hoskins or Andrew Vaughn. Now, it’s Jake Bauers‘ turn, at least against right-handed pitchers. He has four extra-base htis in the last 10 games including a pair of home runs which adds up to a 1.075 OPS in that span.

Core Studs

• Kyle Schwarber is leading the National League in home runs with 53 of them. With that in mind, the matchup doesn’t necessarily matter as he can hit home runs off anyone. Today, he has Zac Gallen. Schwarber is 4-17 against Gallen in his career with three of his hits being home runs.
• The player who is chasing Schwarber in the National League home run race is Shohei Ohtani. Similar to Schwarber, it doesn’t take a lot of convincing to put Ohtani in your lineup. That being said, he is 5-25 against Justin Verlander in his career with a pair of doubles and a pair of home runs.
• After a bit of a lull in the middle of the season, Jorge Polanco has turned it back on again recntly. Over the last 28 days, he has an 1.135 OPS. His matchup is against Framber Valdez. Polanco has gone 12-28 against Valdez with two doubles, a triple, and a home run.

Value Plays/Punts

• If you are looking for an extremely cheap option, consider Orlando Arcia. Since his matchup is against right-handed pitcher Kyle Hendricks, Arcia should be in the Rockies’ lineup at second base. Arcia has gone 10-32 against Hendricks in his career with six doubles.
• Blaine Crim is a career minor-leaguer who has had an impressive first week in the big leagues. He has a double and three home runs in his first 34 at-bats. He has a home game at Coors Field against Kyle Hendricks who gave up nine earned runs in his most recent start.
• You have to check the lineup closely before locking Isaac Paredes into it. He was activated yesterday to help push the Astros into the playoffs. It’s not often we get a player of Paredes caliber (19 HR and an .829 OPS in in 94 games before his injury) at this price.

Saturday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

William Contreras – Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

The Milwaukee Brewers were recommended as an offense to stack above. William Contreras getting over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI is part of that recommendation. He is hitting .320 with a .400 OBP this month which should give him plenty of opportunities to deliver the over on this player prop.

Matt Olson – Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

Matt Olson is among the hottest hitters in baseball. Over the last 28 days, he has an OPS of 1.133. He has gone over this mark in his last seven games, and 13 of 17 games so far in September.

Nolan McLean – Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Given the six games that we have seen from Nolan McLean at the major league level, it’s a bit surprising to see his strikeout prop at only 5.5. He has struck out six or more batters in five of six games. His matchup today is against a Washington Nationals team that has struck out 27.6% (second highest rate in baseball) over the last 30 days.

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