Today is the first Sunday of the NFL season, but we’re still here, going over DFS baseball picks. Today’s DraftKings slate begins at 11:35 Eastern Time and includes 10 games. FanDuel has a very similar slate, but it includes an additional game between the Padres and Rockies. No recommendations will be made from that game.
Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props
Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (9/7)
| PLAYER | DraftKings Salary | FanDuel Salary |
| Hunter Greene | $10,100 | $10,400 |
| Clayton Kershaw | $8,000 | $8,400 |
| Brandon Sproat | $5,900 | $8,000 |
- If you have the money, getting Hunter Greene in your lineup is viable even with a difficult matchup against the New York Mets. He has a strikeout rate of 30.7%. If he had the innings to qualify, that would be the third best mark in baseball. He hasn’t slowed since returning from his injury. In four starts since coming back, he has 28 strikeouts in 23 innings with only a 2.66 ERA and a 2.80 FIP.
- Clayton Kershaw is taking on the Baltimore Orioles today. The Orioles have been a bottom-10 team this season in both OPS and wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. Kershaw no longer generates strike outs like he used (16.1% strikeout rate), but his ability to prevent runs with the Dodgers’ offense backing him, gives him a safe floor. He won all five of his starts in August with four of them being at least 34 points on FanDuel.
- Today will be Brandon Sproat‘s Major League debut against the Reds. Typically, I try to avoid that debut, but Sproat is priced so affordably on DraftKings that it’s hard to ignore. Sproat’s seasonal line at Triple-A shows an uninspiring 4.61 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. If you look since the start of July, his ERA was only 2.72.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
Los Angeles Dodgers Projected Lineup (9/7)
| POS | PLAYER | DraftKings Salary | FanDuel Salary |
| 1B/OF | Shohei Ohtani | $6,600 | $4,700 |
| SS/
2B/OF (FD) |
Mookie Betts | $4,700 | $3,200 |
| 1B | Freddie Freeman | $5,100 | $3,300 |
| C | Will Smith | $5,400 | $3,300 |
| OF | Teoscar Hernandez | $4,300 | $3,100 |
| OF | Michael Conforto | $3,100 | $2,400 |
| OF | Andy Pages | $4,100 | $3,000 |
| 2B/
SS/OF (FD) |
Hyeseong Kim | $3,300 | $2,500 |
| 2B/3B/
SS (FD) |
Miguel Rojas | $2,400 | $2,300 |
- Right-handed pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano is starting the game today against the Los Angeles Dodgers. His 4.41 ERA is actually a bit lucky compared to his FIP of 4.90. We saw some of that regression begin to hit last game when he gave up seven earned runs in just over three innings. Considering the Dodgers are a top five team against right-handed pitching, don’t be surprised if more regression comes in this one.
- It’s not easy to afford him, but you should try to get Shohei Ohtani in your lineup. Against right-handed pitching this season he has a truly phenomenal 1.045 OPS. It’s been over two weeks since he hit a home run. You could certainly think that he is due.
- Don’t look now, but Mookie Betts is starting to look like himself. Since the start of August, he has a wRC+ of 115. His average exit velocity has jumped to 90 miles-per-hour in that span. For the year, it is still just 88.7.
- Andy Pages has been consistently better against right-handed pitchers than left-handed pitchers this season. He has a .798 OPS against right-handed pitchers as opposed to only a .702 against left-handed pitchers. He had cooled a bit, but has had three home runs over the past two weeks.
Detroit Tigers Projected Lineup (9/7)
| POS | PLAYER | DraftKings Salary | FanDuel Salary |
| 3B/
1B/2B (FD) |
Colt Keith | $3,700 | $3,000 |
| 2B | Gleyber Torres | $4,400 | $3,200 |
| OF | Kerry Carpenter | $4,700 | $3,100 |
| OF | Riley Greene | $5,200 | $3,600 |
| 1B | Spencer Torkelson | $4,500 | $3,300 |
| OF | Wenceel Perez | $4,000 | $2,900 |
| 3B/SS/
2B/OF (FD) |
Zach McKinstry | $4,300 | $3,000 |
| C | Dillon Dingler | $3,500 | $2,800 |
| OF | Parker Meadows | $2,300 | $2,400 |
- Davis Martin is starting against the Detroit Tigers today. He had his first quality start since June in his last start. Even in that game, he allowed nine baserunners and 13 flyball outs. All it takes is for a couple of those flyballs to go over the wall with that many runners on base for it to be a disastrous start. The Tigers are an offense that can do that.
- Riley Greene against any right-handed pitcher has to pique your interest. He has 51 extra-base hits against right-handed pitchers. He only has 11 against left-handed pitchers.
- Kerry Carpenter is discount Riley Greene in nearly every way. He is slightly cheaper on both sites, and also crushes right-handed pitchers. He has 40 extra-base hits against right-handed pitchers and only four against left-handed pitchers.
- Dillon Dingler is a cheaper option who has quietly been on a tear in the second half. In the second half, he has four home runs and is batting .309. It adds up to a team-leading 134 wRC+ in the second half.
Core Studs
| POS | PLAYER | DraftKings Salary | FanDuel Salary |
| SS | Bobby Witt Jr. | $5,600 | $3,800 |
| OF | Giancarlo Stanton | $5,300 | $3,600 |
| C | Kyle Teel | $4,200 | $2,700 |
- The Kansas City Royals offense was almost one to stack. While they didn’t quite make the cut, Bobby Witt Jr. is someone you want in your lineup if he is playing. He has gone 12-for-28 against Bailey Ober in his career with five extra-base hits.
- Giancarlo Stanton has a matchup today against future Hall of Fame pitcher Max Scherzer. While Stanton is only 7-for-29 against Scherzer in his career, four of those hits have been home runs. He continues to consistently hit the ball as hard as anyone.
- It’s been the season of the catcher. One catcher who hasn’t gotten enough appreciation is Kyle Teel. He has a matchup today against right-handed pitcher Charlie Morton. Fourteen of his 16 extra-base hits have come against right-handed pitchers including all six of his home runs. He is especially affordable on FanDuel.
Value Plays/Punts
| POS | PLAYER | DraftKings Salary | FanDuel Salary |
| OF | Andrew Benintendi | $3,300 | $2,600 |
| OF | Harrison Bader | $3,400 | $3,000 |
| OF | Ian Happ | $3,600 | $3,500 |
- Another player with the matchup against Charlie Morton is Andrew Benintendi. Benintendi is 9-for-34 against Morton in his career with a pair of home runs.
- With all the stars in the Phillies offense it can be easy to overlook Harrison Bader, but that would be a mistake. Since coming to the Phillies via midseason trade, he has an .875 OPS. That has helped him to secure an everyday playing spot in centerfield.
- Ian Happ has fallen to value play range with struggles in his performance. He’s only had five home runs since the start of August. However, four of them have come in the past 10 days. Even while he was struggling, he continued to hit the ball hard. Since the start of August, his hard hit rate is 44.1% which is top-15 in all of baseball.
Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Jacob Misiorowski (SP – MIL) – Over 5.5 Strikeouts
While Jacob Misiorowski‘s overall performance has been much more average recently, he has continued to generate strikeouts in droves. He has a 30.5% whiff rate which has led to a strikeout rate of 35.6%. This will be his second time facing the Pirates who strike out a top-five rate in baseball. In his first start against the Pirates, he struck out eight over five innings.
Max Fried (SP – NYY) – Under 5.5 Strikeouts
Max Fried has a tough matchup against a Toronto lineup that just doesn’t strike out much against left-handed pitchers. Toronto is the toughest team for left-handed pitchers to strike out with only an 18.4% strikeout rate. Fried has already faced the division-rival Blue Jays three times this season. He has yet to reach even four strikeouts in any of those matchups.
Chandler Simpson (OF – TB) – Under 1.5 Total Bases
Taking Chandler Simpson‘s under 1.5 hits is also viable, but the payout is slightly better on total bases. Simpson has gone over this mark in only one of his last 10 games. Considering that he has had a total of five extra-base hits going back to the beginning of August, it would likely require multiple singles to get him there. It’s doable, but he has only had multiple hits in a game in four of his last 17 games.
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