The NFL landscape is never stagnant. Things are constantly changing. The following three storylines are what I’m most interested in seeing in Week 3.
- Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Storylines
How Will Brian Thomas Jr. Respond to Criticism?
Brian Thomas Jr. had an outstanding rookie season, and expectations were through the roof for his second professional season. Unfortunately, Thomas is dealing with a sophomore slump, punctuated by a brutal showing in Week 2. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 94 wide receivers with at least 25 routes this season, excluding last night’s Monday Night Football doubleheader, Thomas is tied for 56th in receptions (five), tied for 59th in receiving yards (60) and is 47th in half-PPR points per game (eight).
However, he’s also 28th in route participation rate (87%), eighth in air yards share (45.8%), 19th in target share (24.7%), tied for 15th in targets per route run (0.27), 31st in first-read rate (25.4%) and 13th in expected half-PPR points per game (15.9).
Thomas’ underlying data suggests he’s still a borderline stud. It also indicates that gamers should be patient if they have him on their roster, and others without him should consider trading for him. Yet, the underlying data also fails to account for some human-element issues that slightly complicate things.
Thomas’ effort on Sunday left much to be desired.
Shying away from contact is simply unacceptable for an NFL wide receiver. Thomas might have a valid excuse for avoiding contact. He’s reportedly dealing with a wrist injury. The potential valid reason for Thomas shying away from contact on Sunday is a double-edged sword.
It would absolve him of some blame for his miscues. However, if the injury is impacting his play, it could continue to hamper his performance until he’s healthy. If the injury is a convenient excuse to shield him from blame, how will the second-year pro respond to head coach Liam Coen’s postgame criticism and the vocal critics on social media?
Ideally, the criticism will light a fire under him, but that’s not guaranteed. The uncertainty makes him a more volatile buy suggestion. Still, I wouldn’t suggest selling Thomas in trades, either. Finally, barring a manager having a completely loaded lineup or playing in an eight-team league, I can’t imagine benching him.
Can Any Backup QB Keep NFL Offenses & Fantasy Teams Afloat?
The injury bug is feasting on starting quarterbacks. Mac Jones got a start for Brock Purdy last week, and Jones will likely start again this week after it was floated that Purdy’s injury would require a multi-week absence. Jones had a stellar showing, passing for 279 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Christian McCaffrey, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall shouldn’t have their expectations reduced without Purdy.
Joe Burrow will miss at least three months with his toe injury. I previously discussed Jake Browning, providing Ja’Marr Chase‘s and Tee Higgins‘ receiving numbers during Browning’s seven starts in 2023. Readers should check out this week’s takeaways column for my analysis of Browning and the stud wideouts.
Unfortunately, the hits at quarterback don’t end with Purdy and Burrow. J.J. McCarthy has a high-ankle sprain, Justin Fields might have suffered a concussion on Sunday, and Jayden Daniels has a knee injury. McCarthy is expected to miss 2-4 weeks, Fields is in the concussion protocol and Daniels is day to day with his knee injury, making him iffy for this week. Carson Wentz is McCarthy’s fill-in. Tyrod Taylor would start if Fields doesn’t get through the concussion protocol and Marcus Mariota would start for Daniels if Washington’s second-year quarterback doesn’t play this week.
Kevin O’Connell has demonstrated the ability to craft passing-friendly offenses for players like Nick Mullens and Joshua Dobbs. So, he can probably do the same for Wentz. Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall aren’t drastically impacted if Taylor starts for Fields, but both are volatile options after Gang Green’s offense face-planted in Week 2. Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel would be Flex options, at best, if Mariota were to start this week.
Will the Commanders Trust Jacory Croskey-Merritt in the Passing Game?
Sadly, Austin Ekeler tore his right Achilles near the end of last week’s Thursday Night Football game against the Packers. Through two games, Ekeler handled 14 of Washington’s 30 (46.7%) rush attempts. Additionally, per the data suite at Fantasy Points, Ekeler also paced Washington’s backfield in route participation rate (40.4%). His injury opens the door to opportunities for others in Washington’s backfield.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, aka Bill, was tied for the backfield lead in rush attempts (14). However, he was much more efficient than Ekeler, ripping off 99 yards (49.5 per game) at 7.07 yards per carry. Bill also scored the backfield’s only rushing touchdown. He’ll almost certainly get an uptick in rushing work, but the team might make Chris Rodriguez Jr. active on game days to help pick up the early-down slack and avoid wearing out Croskey-Merritt after he played only one game last year in his final collegiate season.
Croskey-Merritt’s fantasy value gets a lift in the wake of Ekeler’s season-ending injury, but just how far it surges upward depends on how much of the veteran’s vacated passing-down work he absorbs.
Croskey-Merritt has run 13 routes (14.6%) this year. Veteran Jeremy McNichols has run five routes (16.9%), and the team signed veteran pass-catching running back Chase Edmonds to their practice squad. Edmonds didn’t play last season. Still, his signing is probably a signal the Commanders aren’t yet ready to trust Croskey-Merritt with the lion’s share of passing-down work, and Edmonds is probably a contingency plan in case McNichols were to get hurt.
Nonetheless, even a slight uptick in passing-game work along with the expected increase in rushing work for Croskey-Merritt would make him a more trustworthy weekly option. Daniels’ availability against the Raiders this week will go a long way toward evaluating Bill’s fantasy value in Week 3. Regardless of Daniels’ availability in Week 3, Croskey’Merritt’s route participation rate is an intriguing storyline to track this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.