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Players to Buy
Naturally, when I finally generate the courage to take the under on the Big Dog in a brutal matchup, he truck sticks me. Derrick Henry rushed for 122 yards with no TDs in Week 6. At least the buy-low take from last week aged well!
As a reminder for the post-bye week…
It’s a SMASH spot for the Ravens offense – specifically with Derrick Henry. Bears/Dolphins. Sharp managers should be looking to buy low on Henry with Lamar Jackson making his return.
FITZ WAS RIGHT. The Panthers’ run defense isn’t as bad as it’s been historically. Back-to-back weeks, they’ve held De’Von Achane and Javonte Williams to less than 2.2 yards per carry. Still, not worried about Javonte’s first bad game. The Cowboys RB played 85% of the snaps and had plenty of red-zone work (6 RZ opportunities), but didn’t score. Still totaled 18 touches (8 targets) and Jaydon Blue played 5 offensive snaps after Miles Sanders was placed on IR. Eventually, some of the Dallas o-line injuries would catch up with them, and that was the case in Week 6. I like the schedule upcoming for Williams (home vs WAS, @ DEN, and home vs ARI) before a Week 10 bye week. Williams ranks 7th in rushing success rate this season.
Breece Hall better rest up, because I’d anticipate he gets LOADED with carries – just like in Week 6.
Hall tallied 22 carries for 59 yards, but was unsuccessful in popping off any big runs. This was a very much an outlier defensive performance. According to Next Gen Stats…
The Broncos defense held the Jets to zero explosive plays, the first time an offense has gone without an explosive play in a game since Week 11, 2021 (HOU vs. TEN).
The Jets’ -0.4 yards per pass play was the 2nd-fewest in a game in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016, trailing only NYG vs. NYJ, Week 8, 2023). Breece Hall was held to a career-low -14 rushing yards before contact, ultimately gaining 59 yards on 22 carries.
Ergo, the Jets’ run game should rebound at home versus the Panthers. Carolina has been stifling the run the last two weeks (just 50 rushing yards allowed the last 2 games).
Defensive end Pat Jones has been back for Carolina the last two weeks, and he has seemingly given Carolina some help on the defensive line.
Still, Hall should reprise another top-tier workload (74% snap rate), making him a buy-low with the vibes around the Jets under ground level. Also gets Bengals in Week 8.
Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet continue their dreaded 50/50 split. Neither scored and as a result…we are sad fantasy managers. Both only drew one target.
Charbonnet totaled 60% snaps, 12 carries, 13 routes, 1 target (37 yds). Kenneth Walker: totaled 35% snaps, 10 carries, 8 routes, 1 target. Both guys generated 37 yards.
Charbs had six carries in the red zone but didn’t score. Walker had two.
I get that the usage is frustrating. But Walker remains the best back in this backfield. PFF’s second-highest graded rusher this season. Buy low on the talent. People are ready to drop KW3.
J.K. Dobbins was the lead back but was held to just 40 yards on 14 carries. RJ Harvey played a supporting role with just two carries while chipping in four catches for 21 yards.
In full PPR, Harvey out-scored Dobbins, ironically, (running more routes).
I’ve been on the “sell-high” on Dobbins take for a bit…. as we know the injury track record for Dobbins. But if you are cool just riding it out…be my guest. Especially the next two weeks versus NYG/DAL. Hold Dobbins for two more weeks and still add/buy Harvey.
On the live game broadcast, Sean Payton told Kurt Warner that he [Harvey] can be a special type of player with the ball in his hands, and maybe the only thing holding him back is me [Payton] not calling his number enough.
The receiving has been very solid thus far. Suggests he has a high ceiling if something were to happen to Dobbins.
Alright, I think I FINALLY know what I want to do with Isiah Pacheco. And that’s buy.
No doubt it’s been tough sledding for the Chiefs’ backfield. But Pacheco has looked good the last few weeks. The snap share also continues to climb. 77% in Week 6 (season-high in carries at 12), after a season-high number in Week 5.
It’s trending all the way up for Pacheco. Per Next Gen Stats, he had four rushes of 15-plus yards vs Detroit. He had four combined leading up to Week 6. Pacheco also had three targets to Hunt’s one (Brashard Smith drew 4). More importantly, the Chiefs RB had four red-zone carries to Hunt’s one. Hunt had just 5 routes to Pacheco’s 19 (50%). PACHECK YOURSELF BEFORE YOU WRECK YOURSELF. If the Chiefs offense turns back into a fantasy wagon…I think dumpster diving for Pacheco is a sharp move to make.
Players to Sell
Christian McCaffery continues to be inefficient as a rusher – 3.2 YPC, 41% success rate – but he scored and ATE as a receiver in Week 6.
Still I feel no different than I did last week.
CMC is on pace for 437 touches through 6 weeks. What could go wrong? McCaffery’s receiving usage has been off the charts…but eventually the 49ers will get most of their starting WRs and TEs back. Consider that CMC has been bad as a rusher…right now is the time to flip him for MAX ROI. He is PFF’s 7th-lowest graded RB this season, averaging 3.1 yards per carry with the NFL’s 8th-lowest success rate.
Tick tock on the sell-high window for CMC. But I get it if you just want to ride it out. I’m just saying that if you can get a really strong return (Jonathan Taylor, etc.) I’d be willing to part ways with CMC.
Put Saquon Barkley on the trade block. He hasn’t been the same guy as last season. The Eagles’ OL has regressed due to some injuries. Barkley is PFF’s 6th-lowest graded RB. The schedule has been tough, so things should have gotten better… starting with the NYG. But it wasn’t. I’d entertain selling Barkley after he underwhelmed with 12 carries for 58 yards in a smash spot.
Travis Etienne was bottled up for the second straight game. 12 for 27 yards. Starting center, Robert Hainsey did not play.
Bhayshul Tuten had a 2-point attempt as well to go with two carries for 14 yards.
I’ve talked about Etienne as a sell…and the tougher matchups he has had are hurting his production.
Etienne is still averaging over 5 yards per carry on the season, but his success rate ranks 16th-worst (39%). Tuten’s is nearly 9% points higher.
Schedule doesn’t get much easier with the Rams, BYE, Raiders and Texans in the next month.
The backfield was spearheaded by Alvin Kamara with a 62% snap rate to Kendre Miller‘s 39%. It was a tough matchup, so it’s not too surprising that neither guy was super efficient rushing the ball.
Miller had another target wiped away with a flag, but Kamara dominated the targets out of the backfield (5 for 45). But the red zone rushing TD…went to Taysom Hill.
Kamara has been adamant about not being traded…so he’s stuck on the Saints in a three-headed monster. Remains a sell.
This season, Kamara is PFF’s 10th-lowest graded RB. Miller is PFF’s 10th-highest graded RB. If anything, I’d be adding Miller ahead of a juicy matchup versus the Bears. Very FLEX-worthy this week.
Interestingly enough, the Chase Brown usage TANKED in Week 6. He played just 54% of the snaps compared to Samaje Perine‘s 46%. Perine even got the first carry and was only out-touched 8-11. The last two weeks, this has been closer to a 60/40 split.
Last week I chalked it up to garbage time…but this is a more concerning split.
Brown was at least more efficient as a rusher (season-high YPC and success rate), but that doesn’t help us that much for fantasy purposes. He needs volume to thrive in a bad offense. Brown ranks second-to-last in rushing success rate this season. Tough draw next week versus a healthy Steelers defense.
David Montgomery was my big “sell” after last week’s game. And I hope you did because he laid a dud on Sunday Night. I’ve been talking about this throughout my articles this season, but he is seeing significantly less work under new OC Jon Morton. Just four carries to Jahmyr Gibbs‘ 17. Monty played 31% of the snaps (16 snaps). Lowest of the season after playing a season-high last week (54%).
Obviously, if the pass TD to Jared Goff stands, Monty’s final stat line isn’t as bad. But passing TDs (although almost done successfully for two weeks in a two) aren’t reliable fantasy production.
Now Monty won’t be as bad on SNF in future weeks. Lions will be winning, with positive game scripts, etc. But if this defense continues to force shootouts…that’s bad news for Montgomery in a negative game script.
Mongomery is very TD-dependent. And even though next week is a home game…it’s against a pass-funnel Buccaneers defense.
Tony Pollard‘s trending in the completely wrong direction. Just 10 carries for 34 yards against an underrated Raiders run defense. Tyjae Spears was more effective as a rusher- averaging 6.2 YPC with 5 carries for 31 yards. 60% success rate to 20% success rate.
Spears also took over the pass-catching role…with four targets to Pollard’s two.
And due to the negative game script…Spears out-snapped Pollard (59% vs 43%). Pollard’s routes dipped to 25%.
Pollard has been a priority sell for the last few weeks, so hopefully, he is already off your roster. And given the firing of Brian Callahan there’s no telling where this backfield will go. I just know they have another brutal matchup on deck vs the Patriots.
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