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Players to Buy
CeeDee Lamb once again commanded elite usage, drawing a 31% target share and 42% of the team’s air yards, but failed to find the end zone despite multiple end-zone targets and 117 incomplete air yards. He finished with 7 catches for 85 yards on 12 targets and remains a prime buy-low candidate given his consistent volume and elite route involvement.
Lamb is averaging a 28% target share since returning from injury in Week 7. If you can trade for him coming off his bye week…Full send.
Last five games, when healthy, London has averaged 11.6 targets, 7.4 receptions, and 106 receiving yards per game. He has a solid playoff schedule as well (TB, ARI, LAR).
Tua Tagovailoa completed 15 of 21 passes for 173 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, good for an 88.1 passer rating. He’s been inconsistent this season, but the schedule is great for a strong finish.
Jaylen Waddle matched up against Bills rookie CB Maxwell Hairston on 13 of his 18 routes, hauling in 3 receptions for 69 yards and a touchdown against the rookie. Hairston, who made his debut last week against the Chiefs, forced two tight-window targets including an interception on what was virtually an arm punt on 3rd-and-long midway through the fourth quarter. Waddle accounted for 80.0% of the Dolphins’ team air yards on the day and 33% of the targets. Since Week 5 (without Tyreek Hill), Waddle is 1 of 3 receivers to account for over half of their team’s air yards (Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are the others) – according to Next Gen Stats.
Waddle has stepped up as Miami’s top receiving weapon, catching 5 of 7 targets for 84 yards and a touchdown.
Waddle has now topped 82 yards in five of his six games this season without Hill, averaging over seven targets and 79 yards per contest when Hill plays fewer than 50% of snaps or misses entirely (10-game sample size). He’s cemented himself as an auto-start WR1 with Hill out.
Another W for Miami bodes well for Mike McDaniel’s future as the Dolphins HC for the rest of 2025.
The Dolphins’ final eight games feature four at home (one internationally — an ideal setup for fantasy production. With Achane commanding elite usage and Waddle thriving as the WR1 in Hill’s absence, this offense remains a sharp buying opportunity for savvy managers looking ahead to the fantasy playoffs.
The Steelers offense lacked vertical bite and cohesion, with most of Aaron Rodgers‘ completions coming near the line of scrimmage. His connection with DK Metcalf remains volatile — the two missed on multiple potential big plays, including a deep ball that traveled 74 incomplete air yards and a fourth-down end-zone fade that fell incomplete.
It’s easy to be frustrated with DK Metcalf‘s box scores lately, but the underlying metrics still scream buy-low. He commanded a 22% target share (seven targets) and was the focal point of Rodgers’ few downfield attempts — including a would-be long touchdown that just missed and another end-zone fade on fourth down. This was after a Week 9 game where he saw multiple red-zone targets but failed to score.
Through Weeks 15-17 (Fantasy Playoffs): Dolphins, Lions, Browns — the No. 2 WR schedule per FantasyPros’ SOS tool. Just a great schedule overall for fantasy WRs.
Metcalf’s peripherals suggest he’s still a high-end WR2 with WR1 upside once Rodgers connects on a few of these missed shots and targets in the end zone.
Rookie wideout Tetairoa McMillan continues to look like the offensive focal point, earning a team-high 32% target share. He caught 5 of 8 targets for 60 yards, working effectively in all areas.
McMillan’s route dominance and steady volume give him one of the safest weekly floors on the team, even if Carolina’s offensive limitations are suppressing his ceiling.
The rookie WR is 13th in XPPG this season. Also, the Panthers have a top-10 schedule ROS for WRs.
If Ricky Pearsall starts practicing (ever), it’s possible he could return as a strong season finisher. Slick Rick was PFF’s 21st-highest graded WR in four games played. And he has a chance to practice/play this week.
Must-add/trade for dirt-cheap.
Rashid Shaheed ran a route on 62% of the dropbacks in his season debut with the Seahawks. 3 touches for 26 total yards (2 carries, 1 catch). Decent usage considering game script. In a back-and-forth game versus the Rams (who Shaheed just played and commanded a 36% target share catching 5 of 9 targets for 68 yards agaisnt just two weeks ago), I love targeting Shaheed after a meh debut. Not his fault. Coaches already talking up getting him more pass opportunites.
Jauan Jennings had solid usage. 23% target share, 35% air yards share with an end-zone target.
In the last four games, Jennings is the WR target leader for the 49ers. He has a real connection with Purdy, and every passing is seemingly improving his health. He’s “due” to produce, ranking 7th in xPPG, scored under expectation.
He’s been solid the last two weeks, scoring in both contests. Also finished 6-71-1 versus the Rams.
DJ Moore was held without a catch before exiting with an injury. Moore’s absence opened the door for Luther Burden, who logged season highs in snaps and routes.
Olamide Zaccheaus struggled with multiple drops, making Burden’s increased role likely to stick even when Moore returns. Moore’s injury status should be monitored closely — Burden is a priority add if Moore misses extended time. He is going to see more targets. Add him aggressively.
Players to Sell
Nico Collins caught 7 of 15 targets for 136 yards in Week 10 against the Jaguars, his most receiving yards in a game this season. Collins averaged a season-most 13.9 air yards per target, hauling in 4 of 9 targets on throws of 10+ air yards for 111 yards, his most receiving yards on such throws since Week 4 of 2024 against the Jaguars (Next Gen Stats). Collins also saw 6 RZ targets.
This is a matchup that Nico has predictably dominated. And 54 of his yards came on a Hail Mary attempt at the end of the second half.
And that’s why he is a screaming sell high.
Houston’s ROS schedule:
Bottom-3 for QBs in the playoffs and bottom-5 for WRs. And that was before the Colts acquired star CB Sauce Gardner.
The QB schedule has ZERO stars per the SOS tool from Weeks 15-17.
Bottom-2 for QBs rest of the season.
Collins makes sense as a logical “Sell” candidate – but what you will actually get for him is really the main point. After a big game, C.J. Stroud potentially coming back, you don’t need trade persuasion (S/O the tools on FantasyPros Trade Central) to spin a positive narrative for Collins, who ranks second to last in expected points scored UNDER expectation this season.
Definitely not interested in buying (especially with the Colts as tougher WR matchups).
I’d consider all of the Texans as sell candidates.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND)
Michael Pittman Jr. had just 2 catches for 19 yards on 2 official targets, though he lost another target to a penalty. With the passing volume heavily tilted toward Warren and Pierce — and the ground game dominating — Pittman was largely an afterthought in this game. He also drew the toughest CB matchup against Falcons’ CB A.J. Terrell.
Now, admittedly, the schedule ROS isn’t great. Bottom-10 ROS for WRs featuring teams like the Chiefs, Texans, and Seahawks.
49ers/Jags are awesome, but the overall schedule suggests some volatile play with the Colts’ No. 1 WR. Pittman is just WR33 in expected points per game this season compared to WR11 in actual points per game. The TDs are helping boost his numbers dramatically.
And his usage is actually very close to Pierce. Targets are near even in the 8 games they have played together. But Pierce has more yards with his big-play ability, while Pittman has more receptions (5.5/game).
I don’t want to overreact. The Colts attempted only 26 passes; Pittman remains the team’s WR1 but will fluctuate weekly in this run-heavy offense. But I think if somebody wants to pay for him as a clear-cut alpha WR, I think you can sell.
Between four talented pass catchers and JT, somebody will undoubtedly get left out in this Colts’ pass attack weekly. And the schedule is not great for WRs ROS.
But no Colts WR is playing better now than Pierce.
Keenan Allen saw a small usage role again—just 60% of the routes run on a 51% snap rate.
His second catch was in garbage time in an effort to get him to break the all-time Chargers receptions record (he needed two catches to achieve this).
The long-time veteran’s routes have now also dipped dangerously low in the last three games – sub-61%. Allen’s targets have dipped dramatically as a result of the last three games (five per game). That’s not a coincidence.
Deebo Samuel continued to serve as Washington’s offensive engine. He tied for the team lead with a 23% target share (5 targets), catching 4 passes for 29 yards and a touchdown, while also drawing three red-zone targets and a 2-point conversion look.
Samuel’s tendencies to fall off in the second halves of seasons – especially in what looks like a lost year for Washington – are concerning. Samuel has finished outside the top-45 fantasy WRs in three of his last four games…despite averaging over five targets/game.
Had it not been for the TD – Samuel would have busted with under 45 yards for the four straight game. Sell-high ahead of the Miami matchup.
Keon Coleman followed closely with 8 targets (20%), converting 3 catches for 46 yards and a touchdown — but left 130 incomplete air yards on the field (44% air yards share).
Coleman continues to be Allen’s primary deep threat and contested-catch option, while Shakir thrives in the short and intermediate zones as the team’s de facto slot weapon.
The Bills are lacking WR playmakers. Coleman has underperformed despite training camp hype.
The lack of pop from Coleman since the season-opener has been sad to see. I don’t think he’s had the best matchups, but the second-year WR has not done enough.
There has been a clear decline in usage and production over the last three games. Obviously, this week he scored (although not efficiently) and he has a full-time role in this offense with a ton of high-value opportunities.
Hold him and see if he can build off this game. The Buccaneers are a solid matchup for WRs in Week 11. Or sell-high after he made a nice TD grab. After all, selling high after Week 1 would have netted you a great amount.
But if he can’t…add Joshua Palmer. He might return this week from IR. Palmer is also averaging over 2 yards per route run this season and has more 50-plus yard games than Coleman this season (out since Week 7). The coaches have be talking about Palmer and his impact when he returns. Keep in mind that Palmer was looking to be on track for a huge game versus Atlanta before he got hurt. And this current coaching staff is not satisifed with the current WR room…given the trade request they sent to try and acquire Jaylen Waddle.
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