The two following suggested game stacks have reasonably high totals, and the spreads are slight enough to create a shootout environment. Both games have exciting options. Yet, none were featured in the core studs or the values/punts sections. Thus, readers are presented with a boatload of DFS options.
NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Week 10
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Bears vs. Giants
Spread/Total: CHI -4.5/47.5 Points
Caleb Williams hasn’t turned into a superstar in his first season in Ben Johnson‘s offense. Nevertheless, he’s taken a step forward in his sophomore campaign, and there are some highs in his volatile DFS output.
Williams has a sweet matchup this week. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Giants have yielded the 10th-most passing yards per game (244) and nine passing touchdowns since Week 6. So, the lineup optimizer projects Williams to have the QB3 value score — the measure of points per $1,000 of salary — at FanDuel.
Rome Odunze could be in store for a squeaky wheel game after posting a bagel on three targets in last week’s shootout against the Bengals. Odunze is comfortably Chicago’s No. 1 wide receiver, with stellar underlying data.
The second-year pro has a favorable matchup against the Giants. According to Pro Football Reference, the G-Men have allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points per game (37.4) and the seventh-most FanDuel points per game (30.3) to wide receivers this season. Moreover, the Giants have played man coverage at the highest rate (40.6%) and single-high coverage at the sixth-highest rate (59.1%) this season. Meanwhile, Odunze has 0.32 targets per route run and 2.68 yards per route run (Y/RR) against man and 0.25 targets per route run and 2.14 Y/RR against single-high coverage this year. We project Odunze as the WR9 at both DFS providers, with the WR5 value score at DraftKings.
Olamide Zaccheaus has more favorable projections in our optimizer, but he’s not a big-play threat, and Luther Burden should return this week to cut into his playing time. Burden is an intriguing GPP dart from this contest based on his big-play ability and Big Blue’s coverage tendencies. Burden has 0.20 targets per route run and 3.80 Y/RR against man and 0.21 targets per route run and 4.09 Y/RR against single-high coverage this year.
Colston Loveland is coming off a breakout performance against the NFL’s most pitiful defense, namely against tight ends. Still, Loveland was the 10th overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft, and he tallied six receptions for 118 receiving yards and two touchdowns on seven targets last week. Loveland tied his season high for targets with three in Week 6 and bested that every week since, with four in Week 7, five in Week 8 and seven in Week 9. Development isn’t linear, but Loveland is trending in the right direction. Even if Cole Kmet can clear the NFL’s concussion protocol and suit up this week, Loveland is a desirable DFS selection. The rookie tight end is projected as the TE5 at both sites, with the TE8 value score at DraftKings and the TE7 value score at FanDuel.
Jaxson Dart is DFS gold, and Chicago’s defense is trash. Since Dart’s first start in Week 4, the rookie is the QB5 in DraftKings points per game (24) and tied for the QB4 in FanDuel points per game (23.9). The Bears have yielded the fourth-most DraftKings points per game (22.4) and the sixth-most FanDuel points per game (21.3) to quarterbacks. It’s an eruption spot for Dart, and he’s the QB4 at both sites. Dart is tied for the QB1 value score at DraftKings and has the QB4 value score at FanDuel.
Wan’Dale Robinson is Dart’s top passing-game option. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Robinson has posted the following stats in his past four games.
- 93.6% route participation rate
- 8.0-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 26.5% air yards share
- 27.6% target share
- 0.24 targets per route run
- 29.6% first-read share
- 24 receptions (6.0 per game)
- 273 receiving yards (68.3 per game)
- 2.08 Y/RR
- One receiving touchdown
Robinson has the WR3 value score at DraftKings and the WR5 value score at FanDuel.
Theo Johnson is the other stacking option with Dart or as a bring-back from the Bears. The second-year pro has an adequate 18.1% target share, 0.18 targets per route run, 18.3% first-read share, 11 receptions (2.8 per game), 140 receiving yards (35 per game) and two receiving touchdowns since Week 6.
Game: Vikings vs. Ravens
Spread/Total: BAL -4.0/48.5 Points
J.J. McCarthy made his third career start last week, which was his second three-touchdown effort. He passed for two touchdowns and ran for one in Week 1 and did the same last week.
The Ravens are healthier on defense and should theoretically play better. Nonetheless, they’ve permitted the sixth-most passing yards per game (259.8) and 14 passing touchdowns with only three interceptions this season. Baltimore has also played man coverage at the fourth-highest rate (37.5%) this year, which should give McCarthy some scrambling opportunities. He’s tied for the QB1 value score at DraftKings and has the QB9 value score at FanDuel.
McCarthy has understood the assignment this year, force-feeding Justin Jefferson. In McCarthy’s three starts, Jefferson has posted the following stats.
- 94.1% route participation rate
- 10.7-yard aDOT
- 36.8% air yards share
- 33.3% target share
- 0.28 targets per route run
- 33.3% first-read rate
- 13 receptions (4.3 per game)
- 172 receiving yards (57.3 per game)
- 2.15 Y/RR
- Two touchdowns
- Four end-zone targets
Jefferson is projected as the WR4 at both DFS outlets, and he could outkick his projection if McCarthy takes a step forward or is trusted to throw the ball more as an underdog against a high-powered offense.
Lamar Jackson produced 204 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, and 14 rushing yards against the Dolphins last week. He has a mouthwatering matchup this week. Minnesota has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game (279), the second-most adjusted net yards per attempt (9.29) and eight passing touchdowns since Week 6.
In addition, per Pro Football Reference, the Vikings have blitzed at the second-highest rate (40.6%) this year. Meanwhile, among 31 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks against the blitz this year, Jackson has the fourth-highest Pro Football Focus (PFF) passing grade, 9.9 yards per attempt, seven passing touchdowns and one interception on 55 dropbacks against the blitz. Jackson is projected as the QB2 at both DFS providers, with the QB5 value score at DraftKings and the QB6 value score at FanDuel in Week 10.
Zay Flowers is Jackson’s top weapon, with a 28.8% air yards share, 26.5% target share, 0.24 targets per route run, 28 receptions (5.6 per game), 369 receiving yards (73.8 per game), 2.51 Y/RR and one receiving touchdown in Jackson’s five starts.
Mark Andrews has 17 receptions (3.4 per game) and 150 receiving yards (30 per game) in Jackson’s starts this season. However, the veteran tight end’s rapport with Jackson has allowed him to score four receiving touchdowns in those games, and he’s a candidate for a tush-push rushing touchdown. Andrews is tied for the TE3 value score at DraftKings.
Flowers and Andrews are strong candidates to earn targets against Minnesota’s blitz-heavy tendencies. Flowers has 0.28 targets per route run and a 31.4% air yards on 50 routes against the blitz, and Andrews has 0.24 targets per route run and a 16.5% air yards share on 37 routes against the blitz this year.
Isaiah Likely‘s 51.9% route participation rate in Baltimore’s previous two games is identical to Andrews’ in those contests. Likely had five receptions (2.5 per game) and 68 receiving yards (34 per game) versus five and 56 for Andrews in the previous two weeks. Likely also had 0.19 targets per route run and 1.72 Y/RR against the blitz last season. He’s a viable punt-priced piece of this contest.
According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Ravens had a 54% situation-neutral rush rate last week and a 51% situation-neutral rush rate last season. The game script could be favorable for Derrick Henry since the Ravens are favored, and King Henry always has blow-up potential when he’s force-fed the rock.
Henry has also run well in Jackson’s starts, with the following stats in those five contests.
- 68 rush attempts
- 403 rushing yards (80.6 per game)
- 5.93 yards per carry
- 10.3% explosive run rate
- Three rushing touchdowns
Henry also enters this week with two 100-plus rushing yards performances in his past three games.
Core Studs
- Christian McCaffrey is the RB1 at both DFS outlets, with the RB4 value score at DraftKings and the RB2 value score at FanDuel. CMC spectacularly bounced back from his 68 scoreless yards in Week 8 by torching the Giants for 173 scrimmage yards, five receptions and two touchdowns. He also had 139 scrimmage yards, eight receptions and one touchdown against the Rams on Thursday Night Football in Week 5. San Francisco’s do-it-all running back has at least 107 scrimmage yards in eight of nine games and reached paydirt in six contests. CMC has also had at least five receptions in eight games this season.
- Puka Nacua is the highest projected scorer at DraftKings and the WR1 at FanDuel, with the WR1 value score at both providers. Among 79 wide receivers with at least 150 routes this season, Nacua is sixth in target share (29.8%), tied for first in targets per route run (0.37), sixth in first-read rate (37.9%), first in DraftKings points per game (23.5) and first in FanDuel points per game (19.2). According to StatHead, Nacua has 46 targets, 36 receptions, 370 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns in four career games against the 49ers.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the WR2 at DraftKings and FanDuel, with the WR9 value score at the former and the WR2 value score at the latter. JSN is first in air yards share (49.0%), first in target share (35.0%), tied for first in targets per route run (0.37), second in first-read rate (44.3%), first in yards per route run (4.56), second in DraftKings points per game (22.6) and second in FanDuel points per game (22.6) among wide receivers with at least 150 routes this season. JSN also leads the NFL in receiving yards per game (118.5).
Value Plays/Punts
- The Lions have played man coverage at the third-highest rate (39.1%) and single-high coverage at the seventh-highest rate (58.0%) this year. Jaylin Lane has 0.22 targets per route run and 2.46 Y/RR on an admittedly small sample of 46 routes against man coverage and 0.20 targets per route run and 1.33 Y/RR on 92 routes against single-high coverage. Moreover, the rookie wide receiver had a 60% slot rate in Washington’s injury-depleted wide receiving corps last week, and the Lions have faced the fourth-highest target rate (40.8%) to the slot since Week 6.
- David Montgomery has the RB6 value score at DraftKings and is tied for the RB10 value score at FanDuel. He and the Lions are 8.0-point favorites against the Commanders. Washington is tied for the eighth-highest situation-neutral rush rate (46%) faced this season. The Lions have the second-highest situation-neutral rush rate (51%) this year, and they have a 58% rush rate when leading by at least three points, excluding the final two minutes of the first half. Montgomery has reached at least a dozen touches in six of eight games this year, and he had 15 in a 15-point victory against the Buccaneers in Week 7 and 19 in a 13-point victory against the Bengals in Week 5. Montgomery could touch the ball 15-plus times against a defense that’s allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game (133.3), 4.76 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns since Week 6.
- Kendrick Bourne flamed the Rams for 10 receptions and 142 receiving yards on 11 targets in their previous meeting this season. The veteran wideout followed that showing up with another outburst before settling into an ancillary role in San Francisco’s three most recent games. Still, the Rams have played zone coverage at the seventh-highest rate (77.5%) and single-high coverage at the eighth-highest rate (56.6%) this season. Bourne has 0.18 targets per route run and 2.33 Y/RR on 175 routes against zone and 0.17 targets per route run and 2.03 Y/RR on 108 routes against single-high coverage this year.
Week 10 Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Jaxson Dart: 41.5 Rushing Yards – Higher
Dart has averaged 8.2 rush attempts per game and 41.8 rushing yards per game in his six career starts. He’s exceeded 41.5 rushing yards in four of six starts, with a median of 54.5. Finally, again, Chicago’s 10th-highest man-coverage rate (27.8%) this season should allow Dart to gash the Bears with his legs.
Dalton Kincaid: 38.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
Dalton Kincaid isn’t deployed as a full-time player, but he’s an efficient receiving weapon for the Bills. On just a 51.9% route participation rate this year, Kincaid has a 22.3% air yards share, 0.27 targets per route run, 58.7 receiving yards per game and 3.34 Y/RR. He’s surpassed 38.5 receiving yards in four of seven starts this year, with a median of 48. Miami has permitted the fifth-most receiving yards per game (68.2) to tight ends this year, including allowing 66 to Kincaid in Week 3. Kincaid is one of six tight ends to exceed 38.5 receiving yards against the Dolphins this season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 98.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
JSN had a season-low 79 receiving yards on just five targets against the Cardinals in Week 4. Still, Smith-Njigba has eclipsed 98.5 receiving yards in six of eight games, with a median of 123.5. Despite JSN’s underwhelming effort against Arizona the first time these NFC West foes butted heads, he has drool-inducing schematic numbers. The Cardinals have played two-high coverage at the fourth-highest rate this year (58.0%), and JSN has obliterated two-high coverage to the tune of 0.42 targets per route run and 5.80 Y/RR on 98 routes against it this year. As a result, we project Smith-Njigba to have 101.1 receiving yards against the Cardinals this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
