Ted Chmyz | Wed, Dec 10th 2025, 7:11am EST

Fantasy Football Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 15)

This is what it all comes down to. The fantasy football playoffs. Even if you’ve been checked out since October, now is the time to lock back in and make sure you set your team up for success. Of course, one of the most important factors to consider at this time of year is matchups. As always, this article will use the FantasyPros Points Allowed tool to find the best matchups to target and the worst matchups to avoid for Week 15. Without further ado, let’s get started.

Fantasy Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 15)

Week 15 Quarterback Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: J.J. McCarthy (QB – MIN) @ Dallas Cowboys

I know, I know. Trusting J.J. McCarthy in the fantasy football playoffs seems like a surefire path to an early exit. The second-year passer has averaged a dismal 13.7 points per game, and he ranks dead last by a truly comical margin in expected points added (EPA) per play. But McCarthy showed in Week 14 that he is at least theoretically capable of taking advantage of soft matchups, throwing for three touchdowns and 20.4 fantasy points against the Commanders.

And it’s really impossible to overstate how good this matchup is. The Cowboys have allowed 24.5 points per game to opposing quarterbacks, a full three points more than any other team. There have been 12 instances of a quarterback playing at least 75% of the available snaps against Dallas’ defense. Only three players have scored fewer than 23.7 points:

Bryce Young with a still respectable 18.5
Jared Goff with 16.2 last week (in a game where Detroit scored 44 points)
Geno Smith with 12.9

The question is simple: Is McCarthy capable of outproducing 2025 Geno Smith? With plenty of weapons, Kevin O’Connell and some rushing upside on his side, I hope the answer is yes. If you’re desperate for quarterback help in a deeper league, give “Nine” a chance.

Bad Matchup: Jacoby Brissett (QB – ARI) @ Houston Texans

Since taking over as the Cardinals’ starting quarterback in Week 6, Jacoby Brissett ranks second to only Josh Allen in both total fantasy points and fantasy points per game. He has been remarkably consistent, scoring at least 18.7 points in every outing and finishing as a top-12 quarterback in all eight of his starts.

However, that streak will be tested this week. The Texans’ defense is the worst matchup in the league for quarterbacks, allowing just 12.2 points per game to the position — no quarterback has scored 20 points against them. Brissett has also relied heavily on garbage time for his production, which might be harder to come by against a not-so-explosive Houston offense. Especially with zero teams on bye, I would hope most fantasy playoff teams have a more trustworthy option than Brissett this week, even if his recent history is impeccable.

Week 15 Running Back Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Chris Rodriguez Jr. (RB – WSH) @ New York Giants

Chris Rodriguez has been the Commanders’ No. 1 RB for the last few weeks, posting running back rush shares of 54%, 52% and 59%. Of course, those are pretty bad numbers for a team’s theoretical top option. He is also barely involved in the receiving game, with just one reception on the entire season. As a result, Rodriguez has averaged an uninspiring 8.1 half-PPR points in his three-week tenure as Washington’s top back.

However, if there were ever a week to trust him, it would be this one. The Giants are second to the Bengals in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs. But they give up by far the most yards per carry to the position at a whopping 6.1 (Cincinnati is second at 5.2). If Rodriguez once again leads Washington in carries, he will have every chance to make the most of them. That makes him an option worth seriously considering for any managers in a pinch at running back as we head into the fantasy playoffs.

Bad Matchup: Breece Hall (RB – NYJ) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Despite not having a reputation as an elite defensive unit, the Jaguars have been tough on opposing running backs this season. They have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points and the fewest yards per game to the position. Jacksonville’s defense has also held running backs to the fourth-lowest yards per carry, as well as opponents in general (including runs by other positions) to the fifth-lowest EPA per rush and second-lowest rushing success rate in the league.

This is all bad news for Breece Hall. Since Braelon Allen went down in Week 4, Hall has been an absolute workhorse on the ground for the Jets, with an average running back rush share of 87%. His receiving usage has also improved in recent weeks, with an average route participation rate of 50% since Week 11.

On most teams, this usage would make Hall a must-start. On the Jets, he has still had his fair share of down weeks. With this bad matchup and Tyrod Taylor potentially sidelined, we might be due for one of those down weeks in Week 15. He’s by no means a must-bench, but Hall isn’t a must-start, either.

Week 15 Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN) @ Dallas Cowboys

This may seem like a pointless recommendation at first glance, but I genuinely wouldn’t blame anyone who wants to bench Justin Jefferson right now. Even as the Vikings’ offense found life last week, the All-World wideout still finished with just two catches for 11 scoreless yards on four targets.

Overall, Jefferson has averaged a thoroughly uninspiring 7.8 half-PPR points in eight games started by anyone other than Carson Wentz this season — that number falls even further to 6.4 if we only look at games with Jordan Addison active.

But if the Cowboys’ defense is soft enough that I’m willing to believe in J.J. McCarthy, you better believe I’m going to believe in his No. 1 WR. Jefferson is still incredibly talented, and he has still seen elite usage regardless of who is under center. If you’ve managed to make the fantasy playoffs despite having Jefferson be an undeniably huge bust as your first-round pick, he might reward you with a vintage performance this week.

Bad Matchup: Michael Pittman Jr. ((WR – IND)/Alec Pierce (WR – IND) @ Seattle Seahawks

This one really hurts me as someone who has happily ridden the wave of the Colts’ massively improved offense in a few leagues this season. But this tough matchup just adds insult to the literal injury of Daniel Jones tearing his Achilles on Sunday.

The Seahawks’ defense ranks as the fifth-toughest fantasy matchup for wide receivers. Seattle also allows the fewest yards per game to the position, which is especially impressive considering they actually rank above-average in wide receiver targets faced.

Mike Macdonald’s defense is also excellent in general, ranking second in the league in EPA per play allowed. With either limping Riley Leonard or fresh-off-the-couch (and 44 years old) Phillip Rivers under center, the Colts have an absurdly low 13.5-point team total for this week. Put it all together, and neither of their top receivers is more than a very risky Flex option.

Week 15 Tight End Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Mark Andrews (TE – BAL)/Isaiah Likely (TE — BAL) @ Cincinnati Bengals

He has been outproduced by Isaiah Likely in recent weeks, but I would still argue that Mark Andrews is the Ravens’ No. 1 TE. In fact, the veteran actually posted a new season-high 79% route participation rate in Week 14 (Likely was at 45%).

With that said, it doesn’t actually matter who Baltimore’s top tight end is. They should both be able to eat this week, as it’s impossible to overstate how historically generous the Bengals’ defense is to tight ends.

Cincinnati has allowed opposing tight ends to record 7.5 catches for 97 yards, 1.2 touchdowns and 20.4 half-PPR points per game. Even if we cherry-pick the second-softest defense in each of those stats individually, we still get nowhere close: 6.8 catches for 72 yards, 0.7 touchdowns and 13.5 points. Fire up both Andrews and Likely with confidence this week.

Bad Matchup: Hunter Henry (TE – NE) vs. Buffalo Bills

Hunter Henry is the definition of a borderline fantasy TE1. He ranks as exactly the TE12 with 8.7 half-PPR points per game. He’s capable of big outings (25 points in Week 3 and 21 points in Week 12) but also complete duds (five weeks below six half-PPR points). Unfortunately, he is likely due for a performance from the latter category in the first week of the fantasy playoffs.

The Bills’ defense is the worst opponent for fantasy tight ends, allowing just 2.9 receptions and 5.9 points per game to the position. Only two tight ends have scored double-digit points against them all season: Mike Gesicki in Week 14 (17.6) and Travis Kelce in Week 9 (10.6). Henry himself caught two passes for 46 yards (5.6 fantasy points) against Buffalo back in Week 5. That was actually the third-most yards they allowed to a tight end all season. With all 32 teams in action, you should hopefully be able to find a more exciting tight end option than Henry this week.

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.

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