Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice: Safe & Risky Picks (Week 16)

Let’s take a look at some of the players with the largest standard deviation between high and low expert ranks in FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR). Which players are the safest starts, and who poses the biggest risk to your fantasy football lineup in Week 16?

Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice

Week 16 Risky Fantasy Football Starts

Justin Herbert (QB – LAC) @ Dallas Cowboys

Highest Rank: QB5
Lowest Rank: QB17

Injuries to the offensive line continue to plague Justin Herbert. The last time he threw for more than 220 yards was in Week 9 — not so coincidentally, Joe Alt‘s last start. Herbert has just five touchdowns and four interceptions in the past five games. However, this week’s matchup might finally be the one to get Herbert back on track.

Dallas has tried to repair the damage to their defense, but those repairs have primarily come against the run. They are still getting lit up through the air. J.J. McCarthy managed 250 yards on just 15 completions. Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts all took care of business with volume. Even Geno Smith threw for 238 yards against them.

The Cowboys could also be without key players due to injury, including defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. Herbert remains risky, but this week could finally bring a QB1 performance.

My Projected Finish: QB13

Tyler Warren (TE – IND) vs. San Francisco 49ers

Highest Rank: TE8
Lowest Rank: TE17

I hoped Tyler Warren would be the least impacted player from the transition to Philip Rivers. However, Warren had just three receptions on six targets for 19 yards in Rivers’ first start, and he’s plummeting in fantasy football rankings. The typical weekly top-five tight end is now more of a borderline streaming option. The drop isn’t solely related to his struggles; it’s also the recent success of lower-end tight ends.

Players like Colby Parkinson, Harold Fannin Jr., Dalton Schultz, Theo Johnson and Darren Waller all benefit from either excellent matchups or increased opportunities in target share, making them potentially more appealing options compared to Warren. The rookie tight end was already struggling to produce high-end numbers even before the transition to Philip Rivers. San Francisco is a fairly decent matchup for tight ends. However, Warren offers limited upside and an incredibly low floor this week.

My Projected Finish: TE14

Michael Carter (RB – ARI) vs. Atlanta Falcons

Highest Rank: RB19
Lowest Rank: RB36

With Bam Knight exiting last week’s game early, Michael Carter operated as the lead back with 14 carries for 56 yards and four receptions for 38 yards. Emari Demercado had limited usage, playing just 11% of the snaps with one carry for one yard and two receptions for zero yards. Logic would say to lean into Carter after such a disparity in usage.

However, Demercado came into the game injured, and it’s possible he wasn’t truly ready to play, and the Cardinals planned to limit his usage, making Carter the natural pivot when Knight went down. If Demercado is healthier in Week 16, we could see an even split or even higher usage of Demercado.

Several weeks ago, when Knight, Demercado and Carter were all healthy, Carter’s role was extremely minimized. Carter is a low-end RB2 if he’s the lead back. However, unless Arizona flat-out tells us he will get the bulk of the carries, Carter is an extremely risky play. Arizona hasn’t exactly been forthright or consistent with announcing playing usage. Proceed with caution on Carter this week and look out for news regarding Carter and Demercado. Rankings will vary significantly until we have detailed information.

My Projected Finish: RB28

More Risky Starts

Week 16 Safe Fantasy Football Starts

Tony Pollard (RB – TEN) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Highest Rank: RB26
Lowest Rank: RB30

Tony Pollard is on quite a hot streak with back-to-back top-10 finishes, over one 100 yards on the ground in each game and three total touchdowns. However, this week’s matchup is not ideal. Kansas City is ranked in the top 10 of fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing backs and has only given up one 100-yard rushing game back in Week 9 to James Cook.

However, Pollard remains safe for a couple of reasons. With Gardner Minshew at quarterback, we’re likely to see a closer game. Kansas City is currently just a 3.5-point favorite. If the Titans don’t have to abandon the run, Pollard will still be safe based on pure volume. He’s also clearly separated himself in terms of workload from Tyjae Spears. The Chiefs are dealing with a wide range of injuries outside of Patrick Mahomes, and this should be a fairly competitive game.

My Projected Finish: RB26

Aaron Jones (RB – MIN) @ New York Giants

Highest Rank: RB18
Lowest Rank: RB24

Aaron Jones’ fantasy production has come to a screeching halt, as he has failed to exceed 14.4 half-PPR fantasy points all season and has posted five straight games with single-digit fantasy points. However, fantasy managers with inconsistent RB2s can turn to Jones as a safe play given the matchup against the New York Giants.

The Giants have allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs. While their numbers are slightly inflated by several outlier performances, starting running backs typically score double-digit fantasy points against the Giants. Jones can also succeed via checkdowns. He’s healthy and remains the lead back, offering a fairly safe play this week.

My Projected Finish: RB24

Jayden Reed (WR – GB) @ Chicago Bears

Highest Rank: RB23
Lowest Rank: RB36

Jayden Reed had nine fantasy points in the first matchup with Chicago on limited usage in his first active game since Week 2. We expected a slow ramp-up, and his production has been modest, but we could see a big uptick in usage this week if Christian Watson is unable to play.

Watson had two touchdowns against Chicago in Week 14, and Chicago tends to be a pass-friendly matchup. If Watson is unable to go, that would open up opportunities for all receivers, particularly Reed. He has a safe floor of around 10 fantasy points for this matchup with an anticipated increase in usage. Reed offers an elevated ceiling if Watson is out.

My Projected Finish: WR25