Before I dive into the meat and potatoes of this fantasy football article, I wanted to wish everyone a magical (and happy) holiday season. I hope that no matter what you celebrate, you get to do it with those who matter most to you, and that this season is filled with warm memories and (hopefully) a championship trophy at its conclusion.
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This was an interesting week, full of comeback performances, overtime thrillers and breakouts from players that managers have been beyond patient waiting on (looking at you, Ashton Jeanty). As a whole, scoring was largely suppressed this week, with only six teams surpassing 30 points scored. Diminished touchdown totals led to plenty of surprise and upset victories from lower-seeded teams in the playoffs, reinforcing the mantra of “it doesn’t matter how you get your ticket to the dance, as long as you get one in the end.” I’m pretty sure that in the four semi-final matchups that I participated in, the team with the lowest projections heading into the week came out on top. That speaks volumes to how topsy-turvy everything was.
Here are a few of the more notable performances from Week 16 around the league.
Fantasy Football Studs & Duds: Week 16
Quarterback
Stud: Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)
Even though Cincinnati was mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, Joe Burrow and the Bengals felt like they had something to prove to the league. A resounding statement of “if this team were only healthy all year, we could put up point totals like this.
Burrow completed 25-of-32 pass attempts for 309 yards and four touchdowns, picking apart Miami’s defense with ease. The Dolphins’ secondary had previously been stout against the pass, but horrific tackling and Burrow’s ability to spread the ball around to his bevy of targets proved to be too much for them to handle. It is a shame that we weren’t able to see this offense hum all year long.
Stud: Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAX)
Has the light officially turned on for Trevor Lawrence? After a middling start to his season from Weeks 1-11, something clearly changed with his demeanor, confidence and how the Jaguars approach each contest. The addition of wideout Jakobi Meyers is easy to point to as a springboard, but Lawrence seems like a completely different player. He has a 15:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio since Week 12, and has averaged nearly 270 passing yards per outing during that timespan.
This past weekend against Denver, Lawrence threw for 279 yards and three touchdowns, completing almost 64% of his passes against one of the league’s most elite secondaries. Even with Brian Thomas Jr. struggling to create separation, Lawrence managed to pivot flawlessly to Parker Washington (6/145/1), Brenton Strange (5/39/1) and Meyers (4/45) instead. Given the hype that he entered the league with (largely viewed as the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck), perhaps it is time to view Lawrence as a QB1 each week, finally.
Dud: Josh Allen (QB – BUF)
Josh Allen came into Sunday’s matchup against Cleveland with one of the highest projected point totals of the week, and most analysts thought that he would have little trouble picking apart a beleaguered Browns secondary that had severely struggled in recent weeks. Apparently, that line of thought wasn’t warranted.
Allen finished with his worst outing of the year, completing just 12 passes for 130 yards, and was bottled up in the running game, scrambling for just 17 yards on seven rushes. Adding injury to insult, Allen was forced to exit Sunday’s game with a sore right foot and needed X-rays at halftime to ensure nothing was broken. Thankfully, that wasn’t the case, and he didn’t miss any offensive snaps, but it didn’t help his fantasy managers one iota, as they were left reeling in a significant hole. Things don’t get any easier for Allen next week against Philadelphia.
Dud: Jacoby Brissett (QB – ARI)
When Jacoby Brissett took over for Kyler Murray in Week 6, it was anticipated that he would provide fantasy managers with middling statistics, playing things largely safe with short throws and relying upon the Cardinals’ run game to do the heavy lifting. We didn’t expect the emergence of YOLO Brissett, who put together a string of terrific performances, throwing at least two touchdowns and 250 yards in eight of his prior nine starts.
AshtonAtlanta proved to be a speedbump, and ultimately his undoing. Even with the healthy return of Marvin Harrison Jr., Brissett was unable to establish a connection with tight end Trey McBride until late in the fourth quarter during garbage time, playing from a significant hole. Next week will get significantly easier against a Cincinnati Bengals secondary that surrenders the fourth-most passing yards per game.
Running Back
Stud: Ashton Jeanty (RB – LV)
Man, does it feel good to finally feature Ashton Jeanty as a stud, rather than a dud. Held in check all year behind the league’s worst offensive line, Jeanty had broken the century mark just one time this season, way back in Week 4 against Chicago. Constantly fending off defenders behind the line of scrimmage and affording no running lanes, it was impossible for Jeanty ever to get going, despite being the focal point of the Raiders’ offensive game plan.
Surprisingly, that script flipped against the best defense in the NFL, as the Houston Texans were unable to contain Jeanty all afternoon. Rushing for 128 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries, Jeanty also showed off his chops as a receiver, taking his lone target for a 60-yard score, and propelling the Raiders to a near-upset. If he was able to pop off against the Texans in Week 16, he should have a field day against the New York Giants.
Stud: Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT)
Jaylen Warren and Ashton Jeanty can pose like the Spiderman meme, as both running backs have been largely inconsistent all season, before exploding in the fantasy playoffs. Ranked behind running mate Kenneth Gainwell in most formats due to his middling usage and lack of involvement in the passing game, Warren enjoyed his best game of the season on the road against Detroit, rushing for 143 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries, adding another eight yards on two receptions as a receiver.
Warren broke free twice in the second half with two 45-yard rushing touchdowns, setting a new career high for himself in the process. The victory for Pittsburgh placed them in the fourth seed for the playoff race, and cemented another above .500 season for head coach Mike Tomlin.
Dud: Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)
Ordinarily, I’d be hesitant to include players as “dud” performers when they entered (or exited) contests with injuries, but this situation proved to be utterly maddening. Unable to practice and on crutches earlier in the week, Josh Jacobs petitioned Green Bay to make him active on Sunday and drew the start, much to the delight of his fantasy managers. He responded with his worst game of the year, rushing for just 36 yards on 12 carries, and was largely glossed over in the second half of the game against Chicago in favor of Emmanuel Wilson.
One would assume Jacobs aggravated his knee/ankle issue, but Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said his lack of usage was due to how well Wilson was playing. This performance crushed those managers who took the risk of starting Jacobs, and (in many instances) they sat safer options on the bench. This was one of the biggest letdowns in recent memory.
Dud: Bucky Irving (RB – TB)
If there is a positive spin that I could put on Bucky Irving’s Week 16, it is that he was the clear-cut No. 1 RB on Tampa Bay, with his 19 rush attempts clearly outpacing Rachaad White (five) and Sean Tucker (four). The bad news? All 71 of Irving’s rushing yards were completely hollow, with Tucker vulturing his goal-line opportunities, and White being the most involved pass-catching back. Tampa Bay’s situation reminds me of Green Bay’s — too many mouths to feed and not nearly enough snaps to ensure that they all finish with positive production.
This marks the third performance in a row in which Irving has failed to score a rushing touchdown, and he hasn’t caught more than two receptions since Week 4 against Philadelphia. Irving’s lack of quality touches has been a major contributor to the Buccaneers’ recent downfall. It seems too obvious to everyone other than the coaching staff.
Wide Receiver
Stud: Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)
Puka Nacua’s epic 12/225/2 performance on Thursday Night Football decided plenty of semi-final matchups before they even began, with plenty of Twitter comments stating “My week is over and I was Nacua’d.” There are a few words left that can describe how talented Nacua is. He has the uncanny ability to add yards after each reception constantly, is strong enough to out-muscle even the biggest cornerbacks and safeties and is perpetually open despite being double-covered.
The clear-cut favorite target of quarterback Matthew Stafford, Nacua has arguably both the highest floor and ceiling of any receiver in football as long as he remains healthy. The Rams will undoubtedly continue calling his number as long as he remains upright.
Stud: Chris Olave (WR – NO)
Before I dive into Week 16 specifically, I wanted to give a tip of the cap to Chris Olave. I’ve long been a supporter of his talent and skillset, but I thought that his concussion issue would derail his once-promising career in New Orleans. Never have I been happier about being proven wrong, in spades.
Olave currently sits as the WR6 on the year, and has already set a career-high with 92 receptions and eight touchdowns. The alpha option on the Saints (especially in the absence of Devaughn Vele), Olave enjoyed his best game of the year against the New York Jets, catching 10 passes on 16 targets for 148 yards and two touchdowns. He squares off against Tennessee in the fantasy finals, a defense that allows nearly 27 points per week and ranks in the bottom-half of passing yards allowed each game. Look for Olave to feast again.
Dud: Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)
If I happened to provide you some background statistics on this game — that quarterback Jared Goff would pass the ball 54 times and throw three touchdowns on 364 yards passing — you’d assume Amon-Ra St. Brown had a pretty good game. Unfortunately, not. St.Brown caught just four receptions for 54 yards on the afternoon — a line that could have been dramatically different if not for multiple offensive pass interference penalties that took away two touchdowns.
I’ll chalk this up to S.t Brown being a victim of circumstance, rather than a predictor of anything to come. Detroit now sits at 8-7 and is clinging to life on the hopes of making the playoffs. With the Lions’ rushing attack suddenly on the fritz, expect the team to heavily rely upon St. Brown to move the chains for the rest of the season.
Dud: Drake London (WR – ATL)
Drake London logged multiple limited practices, and the team appeared incredibly relieved to have him back on the field for their road matchup against Arizona. All of that joy amounted to three receptions for 27 yards. Sigh. A total afterthought on most passing plays, despite being routinely open, Kirk Cousins apparently forgot that London existed.
If there is a silver lining to this utter dud of a performance, it is that London came out unscathed, without any setbacks, and the team managed to come away with a 26-19 victory over the Cardinals. Though I’m happy that London’s competitive spirit allowed him to return this season, if I had any inkling that he’d be limited in this fashion, I would have mentioned him as someone to pivot away from, rather than rejoicing that he returned.
Tight End
Stud: George Kittle (TE – SF)
I was about to write plenty of positive thoughts about Cleveland’s Harold Fannin Jr., but then I happened to glance at the box score of Monday Night Football, where Kittle compiled a 7/115/1 split on eight targets.
After Kittle missed Weeks 2-6 earlier this year, I was concerned about how he would produce after his return, under the assumption that a step forward from wideouts Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk coming back would ultimately siphon away too many targets in the Christian McCaffrey-heavy scheme the 49ers run to provide productivity. I’m fine admitting that I was wrong. Kittle has been one of the lone bright spots at the tight end position since Week 10, and has provided his fantasy managers with a steady floor of points that they can rely upon.
Dud: Trey McBride (TE – ARI)
Words fail me to state anything other than “Trey McBride picked one heck of a time to have his worst game of the season.” The most consistently excellent option at the position, McBride finished with his fewest receptions of the year (four) on his second-fewest targets (eight), somehow playing second-fiddle to Elijah Higgins (7/91 on eight targets).
Call me perplexed. I can understand not forcing the ball to someone who happened to be constantly triple-covered by the opposition, but that wasn’t the case here. It seemed to be (dare I say it) pre-planned? I feel for anyone who was hoping for a bigger performance (or even mediocre, by his standards) from McBride. Arizona should have made a bigger emphasis on getting him involved early, rather than tertiary options like Higgins or Xavier Weaver.
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