Both suggested game stacks are predictable, as they have the two highest totals on this week’s NFL DFS main slate. Still, narrowing the focus of who to stack from those contests is critical, including identifying a few value-salaried players. Only two players from the featured game stacks are included among the core studs and values/punts. Moreover, a skinny stack is highlighted among the values/punts.
NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Week 15
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Rams vs. Lions
Spread/Total: LAR -5.5/55.5 Points
The Rams have the highest implied total this week, which is an excellent starting point for Matthew Stafford. The lineup optimizer projects him as the QB2 this week. According to Pro Football Reference, among qualified quarterbacks this year, Stafford is fourth in passing yards per game (258), first in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (8.37) and first in passing touchdowns (35).
The Lions have a stellar offense to push the Rams and an injury-depleted secondary that can’t stop them, setting the stage for Stafford to bolster his MVP case. In addition, per the Fantasy Points data suite, the Rams have the eighth-highest pass rate (57.1%) inside the 10-yard line, supporting Stafford’s massive touchdown output since Los Angeles frequently marches the ball down the field, and Stafford can finish off the drives with touchdowns.
Davante Adams has been the primary beneficiary of Stafford slinging it near the end zone. Adams’ 14 receiving touchdowns are five more than the second-highest mark in the NFL this season. He’s reached paydirt in nine of 13 games, including hauling in multiple touchdowns in four contests. Last week’s touchdown-less effort snapped a six-game streak of scoring touchdowns.
Adams’ DFS value is primarily tied to scoring touchdowns, but this game projects as a shootout, giving him ample opportunities to do so. Adams is projected as the WR5 at both DFS providers, with the WR6 value score (the measure of points per $1,000 of salary) at FanDuel.
Tutu Atwell and Colby Parkinson are punt-priced pieces of the Rams. Atwell has big-play potential, and he could hit a home run or two against Detroit’s coverage types. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Lions play man coverage at the highest rate (42.9%) and single-high coverage at the fifth-highest rate (59.1%) this year.
Atwell has 0.10 targets per route run (TPRR) and 2.36 yards per route run (2.36 Y/RR) on 39 routes against man and 0.11 TPRR and 1.97 Y/RR on 64 against single-high coverage this season. His target-earning ability against those coverage types has left something to be desired on a small sample, but his efficiency has been quite good. Last year, he had 0.30 TPRR and 1.83 Y/RR on 80 routes against man and 0.27 TPRR and 2.50 Y/RR on 146 routes against single-high coverage.
The matchup against Detroit’s injury-depleted secondary is mouthwatering for LA’s wideouts. The Lions have allowed the most DraftKings points per game (44.4) and FanDuel points per game (37.7) to wide receivers since Week 10.
Parkinson has a below-average matchup. Nevertheless, in the past three weeks, without Tyler Higbee, Parkinson has had a 54.6% route participation rate, 13.8% target share, 0.25 TPRR, 11 receptions (3.7 per game), 100 receiving yards (33.3 per game), 1.89 Y/RR, two receiving touchdowns, 12 DraftKings points per game and 10.2 FanDuel points per game.
Jahmyr Gibbs is a game-script-proof monster. He can gash the Rams as a runner if the Lions are protecting a lead, beat them through the air if Detroit is in a negative game script or do both in a neutral game script. Gibbs has recorded at least 120 scrimmage yards in four of his last five games and five of his last seven. He scored multiple touchdowns in four of his yardage outbursts during that seven-game stretch, logging 218 scrimmage yards, three receptions and two touchdowns against the Buccaneers in Week 7, 172, three and three against the Commanders in Week 9, 264, 11 and three versus the Giants in Week 12 and 120, seven and three against the Cowboys in Week 14.
Gibbs is an optimizer darling. He’s projected as the RB2 at both DFS outlets, with the RB5 value score at DraftKings and the RB2 value score at FanDuel.
Amon-Ra St. Brown would be the biggest beneficiary of the underdog Lions being forced to air it out. Among 86 wide receivers with at least 200 routes this year, the Sun God is 12th in air yards share (38%), eighth in target share (27.2%), tied for fourth in targets per route run (0.31), tied for fifth in first-read rate (36.7%), fourth in receptions (81 at 6.2 per game), eighth in receiving yards per game (75.1) and tied for second in receiving touchdowns (nine).
Moreover, ARSB is a better schematic pick than Jameson Williams. The Rams have played zone at the ninth-highest rate (76.7%) this season, and St. Brown has 0.28 TPRR and 2.56 Y/RR on 273 routes against zone compared to 0.16 TPRR and 1.72 Y/RR on 300 routes against zone for Williams this season. St. Brown is projected as the WR6 at DraftKings and the WR7 at FanDuel.
Jared Goff is St. Brown’s triggerman and an intriguing pivot from Stafford. The Rams have surrendered the fourth-most passing yards (1,178) and tied for the third-most passing touchdowns allowed (nine) since Week 10. Goff will also benefit from playing indoors. In seven games indoors this season, Goff has rattled off 267.3 passing yards per game, 9.13 adjusted yards per pass attempt, a 70.4% completion rate and 15 passing touchdowns. Goff can be double or single-stacked.
A cheap option to double-stack with Goff or use as a punt-priced bring-back from the Rams is Isaac TeSlaa. In four weeks since Sam LaPorta was placed on the injured reserve (IR), TeSlaa has had a 60.7% route participation rate, 16.6-yard aDOT, 13.5% air yards share, two end-zone targets and two receiving touchdowns. Sadly, TeSlaa had only seven targets, four receptions and 55 receiving yards in those contests. Still, his vertical usage and his rapport with Goff in scoring territory give him touchdown and long reception potential in a possible back-and-forth shootout.
Game: Bengals vs. Ravens
Spread/Total: BAL -2.5/52.5 Points
The Bengals have had a robust 7.2% pass rate over expectations (PROE) since Joe Burrow returned in Week 13. That would be the third-highest PROE if logged over the whole season. In those contests, Burrow spun it for 272.5 passing yards per game, six passing touchdowns, 23.8 DraftKings points per game and 23.8 FanDuel points per game. Burrow has a GPP-worthy ceiling against a defense that Aaron Rodgers just sliced and diced for 284 passing yards, 8.94 adjusted net yards per pass attempt and one touchdown on only 34 pass attempts last week. Burrow is projected as the QB4 this week, with the QB6 value score at DraftKings and the QB7 value score at FanDuel.
Ja’Marr Chase should be an absolute target hog this week. Tee Higgins will presumably miss this week after ending up in the NFL’s concussion protocol for the second time in the past three weeks. Without Higgins against the Ravens in Week 13, Chase had the following stats.
- 95.8% route participation rate
- 12.6-yard aDOT
- 46.7% air yards share
- 30.4% target share
- 0.30 TPRR
- 40.6% first-read rate
- 14 targets
- Seven receptions
- 110 receiving yards
- 2.39 Y/RR
- 21 DraftKings points
- 17.5 FanDuel points
Predictably, Chase was a monster without Higgins last season. In five games without Higgins in 2024, Chase tallied the following stats.
- 95.9% route participation rate
- 8.7-yard aDOT
- 29.4% air yards share
- 24.9% target share
- 0.24 TPRR
- 33.9% first-read rate
- 9.8 targets per game
- 7.4 receptions per game
- 91.6 receiving yards per game
- 2.20 Y/RR
- Four receiving touchdowns
- 22 DraftKings points per game
- 18.3 FanDuel points per game
Chase is projected as the WR3 with the WR3 value score at DraftKings and the WR2 and in a tie for the WR3 value score at FanDuel. He was nearly included among the core studs below, and Chase is a superb pick in all game types.
Mike Gesicki is a boom-or-bust stacking option with Burrow, a bring-back choice from the Ravens or a viable one-off. Gesicki squandered an opportunity against the Ravens without Higgins in Week 13, tallying only two receptions for 19 scoreless yards. Nonetheless, he had six targets, six receptions, 86 yards and a touchdown in the snow against the Bills last week.
Gesicki also excelled without Higgins last year. In those five games in 2024, Gesicki amassed the following stats.
- 59.9% route participation rate
- 9.1-yard aDOT
- 22.5% air yards share
- 18.3% target share
- 0.28 TPRR
- 7.2 targets per game
- 22.6% first-read rate
- 5.2 receptions per game
- 62.4 receiving yards per game
- 2.40 Y/RR
- Two receiving touchdowns
- 14.2 DraftKings points per game
- 11.4 FanDuel points per game
Gesicki’s part-time role gives him a low floor, as evidenced by his dud in the previous matchup against the Ravens. Still, he has a low bar to clear to provide DFS value at his salaries on DraftKings and FanDuel, and Gesicki has proven the ability to pile up fantasy points with Burrow.
Derrick Henry was the victim of a negative game script and some wonkiness when the Ravens lost to the Bengals in Week 13. Despite an unfavorable runout in the prior matchup against Cincinnati, he had 104 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Henry has reached 100-plus scrimmage yards in back-to-back games and four of his previous six, totaling 84 and 88 scrimmage yards in the two outliers. He also scored at least one touchdown in three straight games before failing to reach paydirt last week.
Henry is in an eruption spot for the favored Ravens this week. The Bengals have coughed up the eighth-most DraftKings points per game (26.8) and the eighth-most FanDuel points per game (24) to running backs since Week 10. Henry is projected as the RB3 at both DFS outlets, tying for the RB3 value score at FanDuel.
Cincinnati’s ineptitude against running backs doesn’t hold a candle to their inability to so much as slow down tight ends.
Likely had six targets, five receptions and 95 scoreless yards against the Bengals in Week 13. He also lost a fumble for a touchback on a near touchdown. Likely followed that performance up with six targets, four receptions, 25 receiving yards and a touchdown. And yet again, Likely had another near-touchdown reception, but it was overturned because the officials deemed he didn’t make a football move.
Since Week 13, Likely has had only a 48.8% route participation rate. However, he also had a 16.6% air yards share, 17.9% target share, 0.31 TPRR, 12 targets, nine receptions, 120 receiving yards and one touchdown reception. There are many appealing value-salaried tight ends on this week’s slate, but Likely is still one of the best, with the TE4 value score at DraftKings and the TE7 value score at FanDuel.
Core Studs
- Puka Nacua is the WR2 at DraftKings, with the WR6 value score. He’s the WR3, with the WR10 value score at FanDuel. Nacua is coming off his best game of the year, flaming the Cardinals for seven receptions, 167 yards and two touchdowns. Nacua is a terror for Detroit’s man-heavy and single-high-heavy coverages. Nacua has 0.36 TPRR and 3.90 Y/RR on 86 routes against man coverage and 0.44 TPRR and 4.68 Y/RR on 174 routes against single-high this year.
- RJ Harvey is the RB13 at both DFS outlets, with the RB6 value score at DraftKings and tied for the RB6 value score at FanDuel. In three games since J.K. Dobbins injured his foot, Harvey has tallied 14 opportunities (rush attempts plus targets), 17 and 23. He parlayed his opportunities into 50, 62 and 100 scrimmage yards. Harvey has also scored two touchdowns and one more in two games since Denver’s bye, and he’s had multiple receptions in five straight contests, with at least three in four of them.
- Travis Etienne is a stellar play at both DFS sites. However, he’s more appealing at DraftKings, where he’s projected as the RB5, with the RB2 value score. Etienne has operated as a workhorse this year, with at least 15 touches in 11 of 13 contests. He also had 13 in one of his outliers. Etienne’s efficiency has left much to be desired, but his workload offsets it. He’s also on a scoring heater, reaching paydirt twice last week and at least once in four of his past five games. Etienne should feast for the double-digit favored Jaguars against a Jets team that’s permitted the fourth-most DraftKings points per game (32.4) and the third-most FanDuel points per game (30.5) to running backs since Week 10.
Value Plays/Punts
- Marcus Mariota is tied for the highest value score at all positions at DraftKings, and he’s alone with the top value score at FanDuel. In six starts this year, Mariota has 216 passing yards per game, 35.7 rushing yards per game, nine passing touchdowns, one rushing touchdown, 18.5 DraftKings points per game and 18.4 FanDuel points per game. He has a Charmin-soft matchup this week. The Giants have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points per game (23.1) and the fifth-most FanDuel points per game (22.6) to quarterbacks since Week 10.
- Terry McLaurin is the WR14 at DraftKings and the WR13 at FanDuel. Yet, he has the WR2 value score at the former. McLaurin has been on the same page with Mariota. In three games with Mariota, McLaurin has a 14.0-yard aDOT, 39.9% air yards share, 21.8% target share, 0.37 TPRR, 7.3 targets per game, a 24.7% first-read rate, 4.3 receptions per game, 74.7 receiving yards per game, 3.80 Y/RR, two receiving touchdowns, 16.8 DraftKings points per game and 14.6 FanDuel points per game. Like Mariota, McLaurin has a dreamy matchup. Big Blue has allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points per game (37.8) and the fifth-most FanDuel points per game (32) to wide receivers since Week 10.
- Mark Andrews is tied for the TE7 value score at DraftKings and has the TE6 value score at FanDuel. Likely was Baltimore’s most productive tight end in the first meeting against the Bengals. Yet, Andrews was the tight end they recently signed to an extension, and he’s ahead of Likely in the pecking order. Since Week 10, Andrews has had a 67.6% route participation rate compared to 49.7% for Likely and 13.9% for Charlie Kolar. Andrews is in a funk, with just 2.4 receptions per game, 22.2 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown during that span. Regardless, the Bengals are the optimal matchup for tight ends, and Andrews can get out of his rut this week.
Week 15 Top 3 Underdog Player Props
D’Andre Swift: 13.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
D’Andre Swift has averaged 21.3 receiving yards per game this year, with a median of 16. He’s surpassed 13.5 receiving yards in eight of 12 games and cleared that threshold in eight of his last 10 games. Conversely, per StatHead, 14 running backs have eclipsed 13.5 receiving yards against the Browns this season. Cleveland has allowed at least one running back to exceed 13.5 receiving yards in six straight contests. We project Swift to have 15.5 receiving yards against the Browns on Sunday.
Travis Etienne: 72.5 Rushing Yards – Higher
Etienne has averaged 79.7 rushing yards per game and 4.75 yards per carry in nine wins this season. He’s gone over 72.5 rushing yards in six of those victories, with a median of 84 rushing yards. Etienne’s matchup is also favorable this week. In five games since the Jets traded Quinnen Williams, they’ve allowed 592 rushing yards (118.4 per game) and 4.32 yards per carry to running backs.
According to StatHead, they’ve allowed four running backs to surpass 72.5 rushing yards in those five games, including at least one in three of them. Finally, speedsters Jaylen Wright (107 rushing yards) and De’Von Achane (92 rushing yards) just trounced the Jets last week.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: 78.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
St. Brown’s season average of 75.1 receiving yards per game is below his line, but it’s dragged down by recording no receptions on Thanksgiving, when he played only four offensive snaps before leaving the game with a sprained ankle. Discarding that contest moves the Sun God’s average to 81.3 receiving yards per game.
Playing indoors this week is also critical for St. Brown’s receiving outlook. He’s averaged just 61.2 receiving yards per game in six games outdoors this year. St. Brown has averaged 87 receiving yards per game in seven games indoors, and that mark surges to 101.5 without the Thanksgiving game. We project St. Brown to have 83.4 receiving yards against the Rams this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
