The Primer: Week 17 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills

• BUF -1.5, O/U 43.5
• Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings

Bills Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jalen Hurts
• Josh Allen
• James Cook
• Saquon Barkley
• AJ Brown

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

DeVonta Smith (WR)

DeVonta Smith is the WR24 in fantasy points per game with a 24.2% target share, 62.1 receiving yards per game, 2.00 yards per route run, and a 30% first-read share. Smith is third on the team with ten red zone targets and first with 21 deep targets. This week, he faces a stout Buffalo secondary that, since Week 13, has had the second-highest two-high rate in the NFL (69.5%). Against two high, Smith leads the team with a 24.3% target share with 1.99 yards per route run (first on the team) and a team-leading 31.6% first-read share. Smith should lead the Philly passing attack this week and have success doing so. Since Week 12, Buffalo has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target and the highest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

N/A

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Khalil Shakir (WR)

Khalil Shakir has been a decent flex for most of the season as the WR44 in fantasy points per game, with nine weekly outings as a top-36 wide receiver and three weeks as a top-24 option. Shakir has a 19.5% target share with 45.6 receiving yards per game, 1.91 yards per route run, and a 23.4% first-read share. Shakir leads Buffalo with 11 red zone targets while kicking in six deep targets. Cooper DeJean remains a nickel corner that I don’t want to test for fantasy purposes. Since Week 12, Philly has allowed the fewest PPR points per target and the second-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Dallas Goedert (TE)

Dallas Goedert is the TE6 in fantasy points per game with an 18.4% target share with 41.6 receiving yards per game, 1.50 yards per route run, and a 20.5% first-read share (third on the team). Goedert is tied for the team lead in red zone targets with 12 while also seeing six deep targets. Sit Goedert this week. Buffalo remains stout against tight ends. Since Week 10, Buffalo has allowed the ninth-fewest receiving yards and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Dalton Kincaid (TE)

Dalton Kincaid continues to be only a part-time player in the Buffalo offense. Since Week 14, he has had a 43.5% route share, a 13.3% target share, 25 receiving yards per game, 1.88 yards per route run, and a 17.6% first-read share. In those three games, he has had three red zone targets and two deep targets. The efficiency and high cholesterol usage have been there to help him to provide fantasy production, but the needle he is threading is so delicate. I don’t want to attempt to perform that type of delicate sewing of fantasy points in Week 17. Sit Kincaid this week. Since Week 10, Philly has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game and the fewest yards per target to tight ends.

TB vs. MIA | NE vs. NYJ | PIT vs. CLE | NO vs. TEN | JAC vs. IND | ARI vs. CIN | SEA vs. CAR | NYG vs. LV | PHI vs. BUF | CHI vs. SF | LAR vs. ATL

Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SF -3, O/U 52.5
• Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Bears Players & Weekly Rankings

49ers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Brock Purdy
• Christian McCaffrey

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Caleb Williams (QB)

Caleb Williams has feasted on bad pass defenses this season, and this week should offer him another opportunity to do just that. Among 45 qualifying passers, Williams is 15th in passing yards per game, 24th in yards per attempt, 36th in highly accurate throw rate, and 41st in catchable target rate. The 49ers have been one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL with a non-existent pass rush. Since Week 10, they have allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game, the fifth-most passing touchdowns (tied), the seventh-highest CPOE, and had the lowest pressure rate.

D’Andre Swift (RB)

D’Andre Swift has had a resurgent season as the RB18 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 13, he has averaged 17.3 touches and 96.5 total yards while splitting the red zone role with Kyle Monangai (each back has ten red zone rushing attempts). Among 48 qualifying backs, Swift ranks 13th in explosive run rate and 19th in missed tackle rate. Swift is a strong RB2 with RB1 upside. Since Week 12, the 49ers have allowed the third-highest explosive run rate, the third-highest rushing success rate, and the highest missed tackle rate.

DJ Moore (WR)

In the last two weeks, DJ Moore has had back-to-back WR1 finishes in weekly scoring as the WR7 and WR8 for those weeks. Since Week 14, without Rome Odunze, Moore has had a 15.5% target share with 54 receiving yards per game, 1.78 yards per route run, and a 21.7% first-read share. In his last three games, Moore has had two red zone targets, five deep targets, and three scores. Moore should have another nice game this week. Since Week 12, San Francisco has allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Colston Loveland (TE)

Last week, Colston Loveland had a 78.4% route share, which was nice to see, but I don’t think that it continues with Luther Burden back. Last week, with Rome Odunze and Luther Burden both out, the team utilized Loveland and Cole Kmet with route shares north of 75.7%. I think that was due to the team being thin in receiving options. With Luther Burden back this week, I expect Olamide Zaccheaus to return to his slot role, while Burden will rotate from the perimeter to the slot, and Loveland and Kmet will be back in the 60% route share range. Since Week 10, Loveland has been the TE16 in fantasy points per game with two TE1 weekly scoring outings. Since Week 10, Loveland has had a 14% target share with 42 receiving yards per game, 1.92 yards per route run, and a 16.5% first-read share. Since Week 10, he has had five red zone targets and one deep target. Since Week 10, the 49ers have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards and the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Loveland is a borderline TE1 this week.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Kyle Monangai (RB)

Kyle Monangai has been a wonderful find for the Bears this season. The barbed wire tackle-breaking behemoth has averaged 15 touches and 78.3 total yards since Week 13. Since Week 13, Monangai has split the red zone rushing work with D’Andre Swift, with each back seeing ten red zone carries. Overall, among 48 qualifying backs, Monangai ranks 28th in explosive run rates and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. He should have nice flex, worthy work with RB2 upside. Since Week 12, the 49ers have allowed the third-highest explosive run rate, the third-highest rushing success rate, and the highest missed tackle rate.

Luther Burden (WR)

Luther Burden will be back this week. In his two games played without Rome Odunze since Week 14, Burden has finished as the WR23 and WR25 in weekly scoring with a 20.6% target share, 75.5 receiving yards per game, 3.68 yards per route run, and a 29.4% first-read share. In those two games, Burden has had one red zone target and zero deep targets. Burden has a tough matchup, but he could overcome it this week if he continues to produce like that. Flexing Burden this week is a bet on talent, which is a sound bet to make for Week 17. Since Week 12, the 49ers have allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points per target and the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Jauan Jennings (WR)

Since Week 9, Jauan Jennings has been the WR18 in fantasy points per game with a 19.5% target share, 50.6 receiving yards per game, 1.85 yards per route run, and a 28.5% first-read share. In those seven games, Jennings has had seven scores, 11 red zone targets, and four deep targets. Jennings has a tough matchup this week, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he overcame it with a nice stat line. Since Week 12, Chicago has allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points per target and the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Ricky Pearsall (WR)

Ricky Pearsall is set to return this week from knee and ankle injuries. I can’t trust Pearsall as a flex play this week. In three of the four games played since his late season return, he failed to surpass 15 receiving yards, and he’s still searching for his first touchdown since his first return to the lineup in Week 11. Since Week 11, Pearsall has had only a 13.6% target share, 1.16 yards per route run, and a 16.7% first-read share. Pearsall likely also isn’t 100% healthy. I can’t trust this type of volatility in championship week.

TB vs. MIA | NE vs. NYJ | PIT vs. CLE | NO vs. TEN | JAC vs. IND | ARI vs. CIN | SEA vs. CAR | NYG vs. LV | PHI vs. BUF | CHI vs. SF | LAR vs. ATL

Los Angeles Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons

• LAR -7.5, O/U 49.5
• Los Angeles Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Rams Players & Weekly Rankings

Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Matthew Stafford
• Kyren Williams
• Puka Nacua
• Drake London
• Bijan Robinson
• Kyle Pitts

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Blake Corum (RB)

Since Week 12, Blake Corum has been the RB9 in fantasy points per game, averaging 11.5 touches and 86 total yards with five scores. Among 48 qualifying backs, Corum ranks fifth in explosive run rate and ninth in missed tackle rate. Corum is a strong flex this week with RB2 upside if he gets into the endzone again. Since Week 12, Atlanta has allowed the fifth-highest missed tackle rate while ranking 15th in explosive run rate and 14th in rushing success rate allowed.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Kirk Cousins (QB)

Since Week 12, Cousins has been the QB17 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 12, among 28 qualifying passers, Cousins has ranked 17th in yards per attempt, ninth in highly accurate throw rate, tenth in catchable target rate, and 23rd in hero throw rate. Since Week 12, the Rams have allowed the second-lowest success rate per dropback and the lowest adjusted completion rate, but they have also yielded the 13th-most passing yards per game and the second-most passing touchdowns. Cousins has a wide range of outcomes this week.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

N/A

TB vs. MIA | NE vs. NYJ | PIT vs. CLE | NO vs. TEN | JAC vs. IND | ARI vs. CIN | SEA vs. CAR | NYG vs. LV | PHI vs. BUF | CHI vs. SF | LAR vs. ATL

Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn

*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*