Top 5 Fantasy Football Takeaways: Surprises & Disappointments

Two speedy young wide receivers were among Week 13’s top surprises, and a returning signal-caller provided a pick-me-up to his offense. Unfortunately, an NFC North offense has hit rock bottom, and an AFC West offense has questions about its passing attack.

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Top 5 Fantasy Football Takeaways

Let’s dive into the biggest takeaways from Week 13.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Surprises

Christian Watson is a Fantasy Football Asset

Christian Watson had 10 targets, four receptions, 80 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown, one rush and three rushing yards on Thanksgiving. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Watson had an 81.3% route participation rate, 18.5-yard average depth of target (aDOT), 54.1% air yards share, 33.3% target share, 0.38 targets per route run (TPRR) and 35% first-read rate against the Lions.

Watson’s underlying data and surface stats were outstanding. In six games this year, Watson has the following stats.

• 75.2% route participation rate
• 19.5-yard aDOT
• 41% air yards share
• 18.1% target share
• 0.22 TPRR
• 23.5% first-read rate
• 21 receptions (3.5 per game)
• 363 receiving yards (60.5 per game)
• 2.39 yards per route run (Y/RR)
• Three touchdowns
• Two end-zone targets

Watson’s vertical usage can lead to some incompletions and volatility. Still, it can also lead to big plays, and Watson’s stellar role makes him a top-20 wide receiver going forward.

The Jets Have an Intriguing Pass-Catching Weapon

Adonai Mitchell‘s underlying data as a member of the Jets suggested a breakout game might be imminent, and it happened on Sunday. In his first two games with the Jets, Mitchell had a 68.7% route participation rate, 62.5% air yards share, 23.6% target share, 0.28 TPRR and a 35.5% first-read rate. Sadly, Mitchell converted those tasty numbers into a disappointing three receptions and 52 scoreless yards.

He barbecued the Falcons on Sunday. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), the second-year pro’s 40 routes were tied for the team high, and he had 12 targets, eight receptions, 102 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown. Tyrod Taylor has exceeded 200 passing yards in only one of his four starts this season, thus, Mitchell’s floor remains low. Nevertheless, his superb underlying data puts him in the Flex mix.

The Bengals Went Back to Slinging the Pigskin

Joe Burrow returned from the injured reserve (IR) on Thanksgiving, and Zac Taylor didn’t ease him back. Instead, Burrow attempted 46 passes in a 32-14 victory. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, in Cincinnati’s first two games after their Week 10 bye, with Joe Flacco at quarterback, they had a -3.3% pass rate over expectations (PROE) and a -1.9% PROE. In Week 13, they had a 5.8% PROE. A 5.8% PROE would be the fifth-highest mark over the course of the full season.

Burrow completed 24 of his 46 attempts for 261 yards and two touchdowns. He didn’t turn the ball over and took just one sack. Ja’Marr Chase had 14 targets, seven receptions and 110 scoreless receiving yards. Tee Higgins was out with a concussion, but the pass-heavy attack bodes well for his fantasy outlook, too.

Chase Brown had 15 carries for 78 yards versus 14 for 39 for Samaje Perine. However, Brown had a 52.1% route participation rate compared to 20.8% for Perine, and Brown parlayed his rock-solid route participation into seven targets, seven receptions and 35 receiving yards. Stock is up for Chase, Higgins and Brown with Burrow slinging the rock.

Fantasy Football Week 13 Disappointments

Minnesota’s Offense is Broken

Unsurprisingly, undrafted quarterback Max Brosmer didn’t fix Minnesota’s broken offense. Instead, he completed 19-of-30 passes for 126 yards, threw four interceptions and took four sacks in a shutout. The Vikings ran only 50 plays against the Seahawks.

T.J. Hockenson‘s six receptions for 59 scoreless yards on six targets were the most fantasy-relevant showing for the Vikings, but the 59 receiving yards were his season high, and he’s scored only two touchdowns. Hockenson isn’t a viable starter in 12-team leagues or smaller.

Jordan Addison had a team-high 10 targets. Nonetheless, he had five receptions for 36 scoreless yards. Addison has had fewer than 50 receiving yards in six straight games. Gamers would be better served stashing a handcuff running back in 12-team leagues or smaller than holding Addison.

Finally, Justin Jefferson had six targets, two receptions and four scoreless receiving yards. He’s not quarterback-proof. Jefferson is a low-end WR3 or Flex.

The Chargers Might Have a Passing-Game Problem

Justin Herbert will undergo surgery today for a break in his left hand suffered in Sunday’s contest. Fortunately, he expects to play on Monday Night Football in Week 14. Herbert briefly left the contest, and Trey Lance completed his only pass attempt for nine yards in relief. Herbert completed 15-of-20 passes for 151 yards and two touchdowns. He also threw an interception and took three more sacks against a lousy defense.

Herbert hasn’t played as well without Joe Alt. It’s also noteworthy that after Los Angeles’s Week 12 bye, they ran the ball 43 times compared to 21 pass attempts. Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman have historically leaned on their running games, and that might be their plan to work around their makeshift offensive line.

The low passing output led to no one on the Chargers reaching even 40 receiving yards. Ladd McConkey paced the Chargers in routes (25), targets (six), receiving yards (39), tied for the team lead in receptions (four) and had one of the team’s two receiving touchdowns. Quentin Johnston had the team’s other receiving touchdown. Johnston had only three targets, three receptions and 23 receiving yards, meaning the touchdown saved his fantasy line.

Keenan Allen had only five targets, four receptions and 30 receiving yards on 22 routes. He’s gone five straight games without a touchdown and tallied fewer than 50 receiving yards in four of those contests. Gamers can cut Allen in 12-team leagues or shallower.

Oronde Gadsden‘s showing was the most disappointing. He had two targets, one reception and 27 scoreless receiving yards. The rookie tight end played 47 snaps and ran 19 routes. McConkey and Kimani Vidal led the running backs, wideouts and tight ends in snaps, with a team-high 51. Thus, Gadsden’s playing time wasn’t a problem. Still, Gadsden has settled into low-end TE1 territory instead of cementing himself as a must-start player.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.