Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS Slate! I hope everyone is staying warm wherever your may be reading it because personally I haven’t seen a 10 degree weather day in what feels like weeks. I hope your New Year’s resolutions include some bigger wins within DFS and I’m here to make it happen. It’s been a profitable season so far where we’ve missed out on some big wins by just a few hiccups. That’s all part of the season and I know a big cash is coming soon.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a beautiful eight-game slate tonight so you’ll be able to get creative with your lineups. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS Slate! I hope everyone is staying warm wherever your may be reading it because personally I haven’t seen a 10 degree weather day in what feels like weeks. I hope your New Year’s resolutions include some bigger wins within DFS and I’m here to make it happen. It’s been a profitable season so far where we’ve missed out on some big wins by just a few hiccups. That’s all part of the season and I know a big cash is coming soon.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a beautiful eight-game slate tonight so you’ll be able to get creative with your lineups. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $10,800
- FanDuel: $11,300
Oh baby, how I’ve been waiting to put SGA back in my core plays. It feels like we’ve had so many four and five game slates lately that it’s been tough to find a lot of value plays to make it easy to roster the five-figure players. Now with the eight game slate, a lot of value will open up to offer more possibilities to roster the top players. SGA leads the pack for me. Between him and Cade Cunningham, I have SGA with the highest ceiling tonight. His usage rate has only risen in recent play with a 36 percent clip while playing 35 minutes a night of late. With no Ajay Mitchell, Jalen Williams, and perhaps Cason Wallace, we’ll only see more out of SGA who is matchup proof and will be an anchor to a lot of my lineups tonight.
- DraftKings: $9,400
- FanDuel: $9,900
I’m always hesitant throwing Embiid in my core play because I’m never sure he’s going to play any given night. So again, monitor injury news and starting lineups. Despite his knee issues, I do expect Embiid to play tonight without limitation. It also helps that he’s playing at home, where he gets a bump, against a positive matchup. This year, only the Washington Wizards have allowed more fantasy points to opposing centers than the Sacramento Kings. Even condensing a bit to their last 30 games, the Kings have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to centers. When Embiid sees the floor, he commands a 34 percent usage rate. Assuming he’s full go, the 76ers big man should see about 32 minutes which projects him over 46 fantasy points tonight, a number he’s gotten to in five straight games.
- DraftKings: $8,900
- FanDuel: $9,000
With his duel guard-forward status and sub-$9k price tag, it’ll be easy to find a roster spot for Kevin Durant tonight in your lineups. The future Hall of Famer has gone over 49 fantasy points in three of his last four games and gets another positive matchup tonight, going against the second fastest pace team in the league with the Atlanta Hawks. This is one of a few examples of a team playing on a back-to-back so there’s a chance that might shake some thing up, but that hasn’t seemed to be an issue for Durant throughout this season. I expect him to play around 38 minutes tonight and with a 28 percent usage rate I love his floor and prefer him in cash lineueps.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $7,000
- FanDuel: $6,600
With no Giannis Antetokounmpo in the lineup, we’ve seen Portis’ price skyrocket from mid $5k to $7k basically overnight. However, I’m still going to the well with him as his usage and minutes skyrocket with Giannis being benched. Portis is coming off a 35 minute outing where he registered a 47 fantasy point effort. Now he gets to face one of the friendliest fantasy matchups in the NBA with the Washington Wizards. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing centers than the Wizards and with their poor defense and pace-up spot to Milwaukee, this is a place where Portis can eat. His price is more expensive but it will only keep rising, so don’t be afraid to go back to the well here for the Milwaukee big man.
- DraftKings: $5,900
- FanDuel: $6,200
Honestly, you can name nearly any Miami or Chicago player here and you can make a reasonable argument for them being a solid cash option. It helps that we have such a big slate where ownership will be spread out, so don’t be afraid to throw these players in GPPs either. With that being said, I have to imagine the Heat-Bulls game will steam ownership closer to lock. With both teams running fast and either squad elite at defense, we have a total of 243 points tonight in this game, 15 points higher than any other matchup. Buzelis is arguably the highest value-ceiling combo that makes him ideal for cash to go along with Tre Jones (especially if Josh Giddey is out), Ayo Dosunmu (especially if Tre Jones is out), Coby White, Nikola Vucevic, Tyler Herro, and Andrew Wiggins.
- DraftKings: $6,500
- FanDuel: $6,700
Facing off against the Dallas Mavericks, Bridges offers a solid floor to make him an easy cash option here. The Hornets power forward averages 32 minutes a night and Charlotte has been on a bit of a tear recently with a four game winning streak. Bridges is coming off a 33-point performance and I project him for a similar showing tonight. Charlotte’s actually the best offensive unit in the last 15 games while Dallas has been the second fast paced team over that same time frame. The opportunity along raises the floor for Bridges and despite the Hornets getting healthy, his soft pricing is too tough to pass up on.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $8,100
- FanDuel: $8,400
I know I just gave a whole low down on how the Miami-Chicago game will get a plethora of the ownership tonight but remember it’s an eight-game slate. Even some high used players will still be under 20 percent owned. For Adebayo, I don’t expect ownership to steam on him as much as his teammates and the aforementioned Bulls players. Chicago has allowed the fifth most fantasy point to opposing centers this season and Bam is coming off a 52 fantasy point outing. He’s actually gone over 50 fantasy points in three of his last four outings and is now priced down. It’s the second leg of a back-to-back so we’ll see how that impacts the Heat lineup but I expect Bam to be an under owned option on tonight’s slate. Hopefully the floor isn’t too wet again!
- DraftKings: $7,200
- FanDuel: $7,400
It’s hard to tell where ownership will land early on in the day but as of now it doesn’t exactly look like anyone is flocking to roster Denver as they take on one of the slowest teams in the league – the Brooklyn Nets. With no Nikola Jokic in the fold, the offense has gotten a bit of a shakeup for Denver which has changed things around but also offers opportunity for other players to shine. Peyton Watson’s 64 DK point effort last week is an example of that. Of course, it was in a friendlier matchup but he’s also gone over 47 points in four of his last 10 games. That’s not bad for someone priced where he is. It’s not the craziest thing to see a hyper efficient game when Denver is playing at home against one of the league’s worst defenses. I know the total is low, but that is exactly what will push ownership off Watson and Co. and make them ideal for large field GPPs.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $3,100
- FanDuel: $3,700
With Brooklyn expected to miss Egor Demin and Noah Clowney, to go with Cam Thomas and Ziaire Williams, there will be a lot of options tonight to punt your lineups that will project for solid value. Leading that charge is Drake Powell. Powell has slotted into the starting lineup over the past two weeks and now projects for around 25 minutes of play. It’s hard to really go crazy about him given the fact that the Nets are one of the slowest teams in the league but the opportunity will be there and the cost is near min price. If he gets to 20 points that would be golden and he’s projected just over that tonight. Any one of Powell, Danny Wolf, Terance Mann or Nolan Traore can make for a solid punt play tonight, just make sure to monitor injury news and starters for Brooklyn.
- DraftKings: $5,800
- FanDuel: $5,800
If you’re looking to go cheap at the center position, Myles Turner is your option. For the same reasons I liked Bobby Portis, I like Myles Turner. It’s an incredibly friendly matchup against the Washington Wizards where Turner has seen a bump in usage and minutes with Giannis. It also helps that Alexandre Sarr is questionable tonight so if he misses that might only help the situation for the Bucks center. He’s not a punt play price but he should offer a solid ROI for his price tag.
- DraftKings: $4,900
- FanDuel: $4,500
Once again I must remind everyone to monitor lineup news because I imagine some late value options will rise to the top once lineups are announced and some questionable players are ruled out. Cason Wallace is one of those players but even if he plays, Dort is in line for solid play tonight given the other injuries Oklahoma City faces. Dort has never jumped off the page with his usage rates but his 35 minutes a night over his past three games are quite appealing. The opportunity alone should get Dort to 5X his value without issue.
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