The first round sets the foundation for fantasy football squads, and drafting a bust can derail the entire season. Everyone selected in the first round has a tantalizing ceiling and a compelling case for their average draft position (ADP).
Nevertheless, two players have higher odds of busting among the top 12 players picked in drafts than the other 10. That’s not to say there isn’t merit for picking those two players, as both have massive ceilings, but they also have a higher likelihood of falling short of first-round expectations.
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Fantasy Football First-Round Busts
Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN) | ADP: 10.3 (WR5)
Justin Jefferson is one of the NFL’s best wide receivers. He got off to a fast start in his career. Among wide receivers who played at least eight games, Jefferson recorded the following finishes in half-PPR points per game:
- 2020: Tied for WR8 (14.4)
- 2021: WR4 (16.3)
- 2022: WR1 (17.9)
- 2023: WR5 (16.8)
- 2024: WR2 (15.6)
Jefferson is the WR5 in ADP this season, and he finished as the WR5 or better in four of his first five years in the NFL, with the outlier coming in his rookie campaign.
Sadly, the 2025 season happened when Minnesota’s trio of J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer couldn’t get the job done. As a result, Jefferson was the WR34 in half-PPR points per game (9.4).
According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, among 86 wide receivers with at least 250 routes in the 2025 regular season, Jefferson posted the following stats (rankings in parentheses):
- 93.5% (2nd)
- 39.0% air yards share (9th)
- 28.5% target share (tied for 4th)
- 0.26 targets per route run (tied for 10th)
- 35.1% first-read rate (6th)
- 84 receptions (10th)
- 61.6 receiving yards per game (16th)
- 1.96 yards per route run (22nd)
- 0.088 first downs per route run (tied for 29th)
- 2 touchdowns (tied for 58th)
- 13 end-zone targets (5th)
- 15.1 expected half-PPR points per game (13th)
Jefferson was targeted a ton, piled up air yards and was frequently targeted in the end zone. Still, even his WR13 ranking in expected half-PPR points per game was disappointing.
Kyler Murray was brought in as a free agent, and he’ll compete with McCarthy for the starting quarterback gig. Murray should be viewed as the favorite, but it’s also not written in Sharpie yet.
Kyler is gonna get more than he bargained for in August. https://t.co/8ukJB4ve26
— Thor Nystrom (@thorku) June 19, 2026
According to SumerSports, among 45 quarterbacks with at least 100 plays in 2025, Murray was tied for 20th in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.05).
Unsurprisingly, Murray was much better than McCarthy, who ranked 40th in EPA per play (-0.15). Murray’s 2025 was actually an upgrade in EPA per play over 2022 and 2023, but it was also markedly worse than his 15th-ranked mark in 2024 (0.10 EPA).
A change of scenery could do Murray good. Additionally, DeAndre Hopkins tied with Jefferson as the WR8 in half-PPR points per game in 2020, with Murray as his quarterback.
So, there is proof of concept that Murray can provide an alpha-wide receiver with the volume needed to finish as a high-end fantasy asset. Jefferson is a year younger than Hopkins was during his big season with Murray, and Jefferson is a better wideout than Hopkins ever was.
Jefferson should bounce back in a big way from his dreadful 2025 campaign. Still, his price tag is a bit steep, and he has more bust potential than anyone else in the first round.
Jefferson’s upside is worth mixing into best ball portfolios, but I’m passing on him in favor of everyone going ahead of him in ADP and three players going after him: James Cook (11 ADP), CeeDee Lamb (11.3) and Saquon Barkley (15).
Ashton Jeanty (RB – LV) | ADP: 12.7 (RB6)
The Raiders were an unmitigated disaster last season, hence why they picked first in this year’s NFL Draft. Las Vegas hit the reset button, hiring Klint Kubiak as their head coach after he was the offensive coordinator for the 2025 Super Bowl Champion Seahawks.
Las Vegas drafted Fernando Mendoza with the first pick and signed Kirk Cousins as a potential bridge option if Mendoza isn’t ready right away. The changes should help get the Raiders out of the basement, and the ecosystem should be much better for Ashton Jeanty in his sophomore campaign.
Jeanty’s rookie season wasn’t bereft of reasons for optimism about his future, either. He demonstrated the ability to handle a bell-cow workload. Per StatHead, Jeanty’s 321 touches were the sixth-most last season, and his 1,321 scrimmage yards were the 16th-most among running backs.
Of course, the gap between his sixth-place ranking in touches and his 16th-place ranking among only running backs in scrimmage yards speaks to his inefficiencies as a rookie.
Among 55 running backs with at least 75 rush attempts in 2025, Jeanty recorded the following stats (rankings in parentheses):
- 266 rush attempts (7th)
- 57.4 rushing yards per game (24th)
- 3.67 yards per carry (tied for 47th)
- 1.28 yards before contact per attempt (54th)
- 2.38 yards after contact per attempt (19th)
- 0.17 missed tackles forced per attempt (tied for 16th)
- 1.9% explosive run rate (49th)
- 41.0% success rate (54th)
- 53.4% stuff rate (54th)
The Raiders didn’t give Jeanty much room to work with as a runner, as evidenced by his yards before contact per attempt ranking, though the running back also has something to do with it.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranked the Raiders 30th in run blocking last year, adding further evidence that Jeanty’s inefficiency was at least partially, if not largely, attributable to Las Vegas’ blocking woes.
Kolton Miller was injured early last year and played only 250 offensive snaps, per PFF. His return will help the offensive line, as will the addition of Tyler Linderbaum in free agency to man the center position.
The Raiders also signed guard Spencer Burford in free agency and drafted Trey Zuhn in the third round. Furthermore, new coaching could help unlock 2024 second-round pick Jackson Powers-Johnson.
Unfortunately, the Raiders were dreadful on the offensive line last season, and even a sizable improvement might only get them to the middle of the pack. Jeanty might also struggle to find himself in positive game scripts again this year. The consensus win total for the Raiders is 5.5, albeit juiced to the over (-150).
Touchdowns could also be tough for Jeanty to come by. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Las Vegas was 32nd in scoring offense (14.2 points per game) in 2025. Jeanty scored 10 touchdowns in 17 games as a rookie.
On the plus side, Jeanty isn’t entirely game-script sensitive after logging 3.2 receptions per game and 20.4 receiving yards per game in his rookie season. Brock Bowers is the team’s top pass-catching option, but it’s murky behind him. Jeanty could conceivably finish second on the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards in 2026.
Jeanty’s ceiling is massive. If Kubiak and Mendoza click right out of the gate, and the offensive line gels and plays well, Jeanty could be a league-winning player.
At the same time, Jeanty is a volatile pick who could fail to live up to the expectations that accompany his fantasy football ADP. Despite a massive workload last season, Jeanty was only the RB17 in half-PPR points per game (12.8) among running backs with at least eight games played. Volume alone won’t assure Jeanty pans out and finishes as an RB6 or better this season.
As with Jefferson, Jeanty warrants inclusion in best-ball portfolios. Also like Jefferson, I prefer the non-Jefferson players going ahead of Jeanty to the second-year running back, and I’d pick Barkley, Omarion Hampton, Chase Brown and Kenneth Walker III over Jeanty as well.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
