As we roll into mid-June with training camp activity in full swing, fantasy football draft season is right around the corner. In just a few weeks, most home leagues will begin contacting their managers and ironing out a draft day — the excitement is palpable.
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Fantasy Football Draft Strategy & Targets: Late-Round QB
As managers begin to sit down and get their research started, they will notice one thing immediately: The vast majority of articles, podcasts and news blurbs will center on the running back and wide receiver positions.
This is somewhat ironic, given that the quarterback is the beating heart and lifeblood of a team. Without competent play under center, it doesn’t matter how talented a receiving core is — they are doomed to fail.
Just ask Justin Jefferson how much fun he had last season with J.J. McCarthy under center, or Jaylen Waddle continually open with Tua Tagovailoa throwing the ball at his feet.
Yes, running backs and wide receivers will see their fair share of attention in draft circles. They make up the “core” of one’s roster, especially in leagues that have multiple FLEX slots.
That said, the importance of having a solid quarterback to rely upon for weekly production is critical in fantasy leagues, and acquiring one who can provide you with a solid floor of points is absurdly important.
Fantasy Football Draft Trends: Waiting on QB
Over the last decade, the trend du jour has been to wait on selecting a quarterback to complete your roster. Fill out the bulk of your team first, then wait several rounds before selecting someone as a mid-tier option instead.
Sure, it is helpful to have Josh Allen as your quarterback. But if selecting him comes at the expense of your WR2 or RB2 slot, is it truly worth it? Or can you be patient enough to wait a few rounds to address the quarterback position instead and be satisfied with alternatives like Justin Herbert or Jared Goff?
Being patient and drafting a quarterback with rushing upside later in drafts will allow you to build a well-balanced roster capable of weathering bye weeks and inevitable injuries elsewhere. How long should you wait, and which options should you consider?
Examining Early ADP Data
Predictably, Josh Allen remains the top option at the position, and early data shows him coming off the board as a mid-third-round selection in “standard size” formats (12 teams in a non-Superflex league).
Fantasy managers are pinning their hopes on Lamar Jackson returning to his MVP-caliber form as a fourth-round pick, with Drake Maye and Joe Burrow rounding off the first “tier” as mid-fifth-round and early-sixth-round picks, respectively.
Barring any of these options falling drastically, managers looking for value at the position without carrying an overwhelming amount of risk should hold tight just a little longer, repeating to themselves, “Patience is a virtue.”
After Jalen Hurts is off the board in the early seventh round, things get interesting, and managers begin to enter the “sweet spot” of selections, between rounds 8-12.
This is the territory where there is a mix of veterans with high touchdown floors and middling rushing upside (Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, Trevor Lawrence), coupled with players that have higher rushing floors but questions elsewhere, either with their receiving core, prior injury situations or coaching changes (Jaxson Dart, Justin Herbert, Bo Nix).
This is my favorite territory to pounce, with a later Tier 3 or early Tier 4 option. The QB9-QB14 in average draft position (ADP) offers enough job security and theoretical upside to select your “set-it-and-forget-it” starter, without worrying about other variables such as inexperience, a lengthy injury history or overwhelming inconsistency.
Anyone willing to wait longer than this begins to dip their toes into the waters of C.J. Stroud, Malik Willis or Tyler Shough. A shiver just ran down my spine at the thought.
Could one of those lesser talents finish as a top-10 option at the end of the season, if things break their way?
Sure, but you’d better have pivot players just in case — and taking multiple quarterbacks as dart throws between rounds 14-19 will cost you the opportunity of adding sleepers elsewhere. Backup running backs who have the potential to usurp the starters, or rookie wide receivers who could break out and climb the depth chart.
It is a conversation of risk versus reward, and I just don’t feel that waiting past that sweet spot makes much sense. Which options warrant consideration as “late-round” selections? Below are some of my favorites.
I’d like to preface the next section. Fantasy football ADP data in early June is highly volatile and also highly platform-dependent. Where quarterbacks are selected by managers on Sleeper, Underdog or ESPN is heavily tied to pre-draft rankings, especially in home-league formats, where managers tend to sort players by their “default” rankings.
As an example, Caleb Williams currently has a near-three-round variance between Underdog and Sleeper, per DraftSharks. Mike Clay’s ESPN rankings place a heavier emphasis on quarterbacks, so the top seven options fly off the board earlier than other sites. Please keep this in mind when I refer to the next grouping.
Late-Round Quarterback Targets
Jaxson Dart (QB – NYG)
Cue the homer comments. I know. Jaxson Dart currently sits as a mid-Tier-3 option in our updated expert consensus rankings (ECR) rankings as the QB10, and I’m happy to gobble him up at that price point. The positives with Dart are obvious.
In his rookie year, he finished as the fantasy QB14, despite playing without Big Blue’s primary receiving threat in Malik Nabers for the majority of the year, and Cam Skattebo only started four games in the backfield before he missed the remainder of the year.
Even without top-flight receiving options or a viable ground game, Dart piled up 487 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns in 14 starts, forcing defenders to keep a spy on him at all times. His reckless running style made fans hold their collective breath, but it was to the benefit of fantasy managers, who likely added him as a late-round dart throw.
Dart has been peppered with questions this offseason regarding his decision-making with the ball in his hands, in an effort to avoid the blue medical tent.
New head coach John Harbaugh has preached that “availability is the best ability” when it comes to Dart, and the team has made it a priority during training camp to emphasize staying in the pocket rather than constantly taking off.
The free agency additions of tight end Isaiah Likely and wideout Darnell Mooney give New York much-needed depth, and third-round rookie Malachi Fields bolsters a solid core of young talent for Dart to utilize.
Provided that he can remain healthy and Nabers and Skattebo return to form, this offense has a chance to turn heads this year. Don’t underestimate the impact Harbaugh will have on his development. Dart is a popular breakout candidate for 2026.
Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAX)
Few quarterbacks had more hype coming into the NFL than Trevor Lawrence, who was pegged in 2021 as the cleanest prospect at the position since Peyton Manning. After a disastrous rookie year under Urban Meyer, Lawrence rebounded for strong campaigns the following two years, finishing as the fantasy QB8 and QB13 from 2022-23.
Injuries derailed his 2024 season, but he finally came into his own last year, passing for 29 touchdowns and 4,007 yards, and adding another 359 rushing yards and nine scores as a runner. His QB4 finish reminded many managers who were “once bitten, twice shy” about his overall skillset and talents.
Jacksonville’s running game suffered a major blow in the offseason with Travis Etienne Jr. moving on to New Orleans, leaving sophomore Bhayshul Tuten and career-backup Chris Rodriguez Jr. competing for touches.
I’m not as high on Tuten as some of my colleagues, and I think the Jaguars will lean heavily into the passing game this season, thanks to their excellent young trio of wideouts: Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers.
Even if one factors in regression from Lawrence as a runner, gains should be evident within the passing game to offset the totals. Jacksonville has an inviting schedule for Lawrence to thrive, and I expect him to finish as a strong QB1.
Bo Nix (QB – DEN)
Managers willing to wait until the 12th round to address quarterback should consider Bo Nix, who I expect to outperform his QB14 ranking.
Nix’s detractors will point out that his inefficiency as a passer (he led the NFL in pass attempts last season yet still failed to eclipse 4,000 passing yards, averaging just 6.4 yards per attempt) limits his upside. However, I think that this is an area where he can show dramatic improvement during his junior season.
Nix has finished as the fantasy QB7 in consecutive years, and his familiarity with Sean Payton’s offense, coupled with the addition of Jaylen Waddle, has me hopeful for significant strides forward.
Denver’s relatively quiet offseason spoke volumes about the state of this team — ownership thinks they should compete for a Super Bowl with the players in place, and no drastic overhaul was necessary.
Nix will chip in 350-400 rushing yards and several scores as a running threat, and he hasn’t missed a single start since entering the league. Though he doesn’t have the same upside as Jaxson Dart or Trevor Lawrence, Nix is a solid bet to outperform his current ADP and provide managers a good return on investment.
Kyler Murray (QB – MIN)
If there is one quarterback in the fourth or fifth tier whom I’m willing to take a flier on to completely shatter expectations, it is Kyler Murray. Currently ranked QB17 in ECR, Murray is tumbling down draft boards for good reason.
Murray missed multiple games with injuries in four of the past five seasons, and it is fair to question if he has the same rushing upside as earlier in his career. He is banking on a return to form with Minnesota after spending the first seven years of his career in Arizona. Murray will need to learn a new offense and establish a rapport with his wideouts. Obstacles are there, to be certain.
Yet, if one considers his potential ceiling, he becomes worth a flier later in drafts. Head coach Kevin O’Connell is known for having an extremely quarterback-friendly system (despite J.J. McCarthy‘s struggles), and he will have arguably one of the best wide receiver corps in the NFL at his disposal in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings.
Before playing only five games last season, Murray finished as a top-10 option at the position in four of the six prior seasons. When healthy (and there have been plenty of bumps along that road), Murray has produced. Savvy managers could consider trading him away after a strong start if they felt his production was unsustainable.
Murray is currently being taken in the 15th round of Sleeper drafts, and I’d happily take him at that discounted rate.
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