Tonight is a real test for DFS players with rain all over the place, four terrific starting pitchers, no crummy lefties to pick on with platoons and only one strong lineup situation to load up on. I’ve got a plan to approach it all, however, so let’s take a look.
For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types specific to MLB.
Weather
SFG @ PIT – 55% chance at delay, 10% chance at cancellation
CLE @ DET – 40% chance at delay, 5% chance at cancellation
TEX @ CHW – 40% chance at delay
WAS @ STL – 30% chance at delay
CHC @ CIN – 25% chance at delay
TBR @ BAL – 10% chance at delay
PHI @ NYM – 10% chance at delay
MIN @ KCR – 10% chance at delay
Major power boost to NYM righties thanks to 16 MPH wind to LF
Power boost for all in TBR @ BAL thanks to 14 MPH wind to CF
Power boost for all in ATL @ OAK thanks to 15 MPH wind to CF
CHC at CIN won’t produce as many HRs as usual in that park thanks to 11 MPH wind from RF
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Pitcher
Lance McCullers (HOU) : $9,500 vs NYY
Don’t begin to worry about the Yankees and all of their homers. McCullers leads the league in ground ball percentage, and who is to say they will even be putting the ball in play anyways. He is a good bet to strike out at least 7 with an upside of 12+ and Vegas considers him likely to notch a win and quality start. There are three other great plays in Robbie Ray, Jacob deGrom and Alex Wood, but Ray is the least safe of the bunch, going up against the Rockies in Chase Field and the other two starters are $1,000 and $2,600 more expensive. I’ll be taking the extra cash to pad my lineup tonight.
Tampa Bay Stack
@ BAL against Chris Tillman with the wind howling out
Wilson Ramos (C) : $2,300
Logan Morrison (1B): $3,600
Corey Dickerson (OF) : $4,200
Mallex Smith (OF): $2,800
Tillman is the single worst starting pitcher in baseball this season with a 5.71 xFIP. He is 5th in HR/9 allowed and with the wind blowing out hard to center tonight, this has the makings of a home run derby for the Rays. Dickerson and Morrison are the best bets to go yard tonight, and you’d have to imagine Mallex will find his way on base against Tillman and could even swipe a bag or two. Most importantly, if for whatever reason you avoid this stack, make sure to get Ramos into your lineup as there is not much in the way of solid catching options tonight and Ramos is dirt cheap despite hitting .307 with 22 homers last season.
Chasing Home Runs
Rougned Odor (2B): $3,000 @ CHW
Manny Machado (3B): $3,300 vs TBR
Franklin Barreto (SS): $3,000 vs ATL
Yoenis Cespedes (OF) : $3,200 vs PHI
No, this isn’t a GPP lineup advice article. This strategy works in cash games as well. I’m not trying to get homers from all four, although that sure would be nice, but if I can grab one or two from this bunch to go with the surefire Tampa stack and a lights out ace then I’m in killer shape. All this comes down to is playing the odds, and odds are that if you choose four hitters with a 25 to 40% chance at a homer, you have a 79% chance at getting at least one homer.
Odor might be struggling thus far, but his LD% and hard-hit % are near identical to Charlie Blackmon and David Peralta who have terrific numbers so don’t get down on him, especially when he faces a pitcher like Mike Pelfrey.
Machado, as I’m sure you saw in the caption, is the clear-cut top play of the night. Jacob Faria is a quality rookie, sure, but with the wind blowing out hard and a super-low price tag on one of the top 10 hitters in baseball, you have to pounce when given the opportunity.
Barreto draws Mike Foltynewicz who is #56 out of 75 qualified pitchers in preventing homers. When you add in the wind and the fact that Barreto is a polished top prospect then you’ve got to consider him a bargain at just $3,000.
Finally, Yoenis who gets a crummy righty in another terrific weather situation may be the top home run threat of the night. The Mets are implied for 4.97 runs and Cespedes should be at the heart of that with the wind gusting out at 20+ MPH throughout the game tonight.
Other Top Options (in order)
- Eric Thames (1B – MIL): $2,900 vs MIA
- Giancarlo Stanton (OF – MIA): $4,000 @ MIL
- Evan Longoria (3B – TBR): $3,400 @ BAL
- Travis Shaw (3B – MIL): $3,800 vs MIA
- Nomar Mazara (OF – TEX): $3,100 @ CHW
- Christian Yelich (OF – MIA): $3,200 @ MIL
- Russell Martin (C – TOR): $2,600 vs BOS
- Khris Davis (OF – OAK): $3,900 vs ATL
- Alex Avila (C – DET): $3,100 vs CLE
- Jonathan Schoop (2B – BAL): $3,200 vs TBR
- Mitch Moreland (1B – BOS): $3,300 @ TOR
- Ian Happ (2B – CHC): $3,400 @ CIN
- Lonnie Chisenhall (OF – CLE): $2,900 @ DET
- Justin Upton (OF – DET): $3,200 vs CLE
- Josh Donaldson (3B – TOR): $3,800 vs BOS
- Jean Segura (SS – SEA): $3,600 @ LAA
- Michael Brantley (OF – CLE): $3,500 @ DET
- Jason Kipnis (2B – CLE): $3,300 @ DET
- Steven Souza (OF – TBR): $3,500 @ BAL
- Elvis Andrus (SS – TEX): $3,400 @ CHW
- Kendrys Morales (1B – TOR): $3,300 vs BOS
- Francisco Lindor (SS – CLE): $3,700 @ DET
- Andrew Benintendi (OF – BOS): $3,200 @ TOR
- Buster Posey (C – SFG): $3,500 @ PIT
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